Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221103 AAA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT CURRENT RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A
FEW HOURS AT MOST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY FILTERS INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ALREADY ACROSS ILLINOIS...AND ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY SUNRISE.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR DURATION OF NEAR TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DYNAMICS WANE.
THIS IS MOST REFLECTED OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE POPS WERE
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS
WAS CAPTURED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/12 TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TIME HEIGHT CHARTS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM ARE MOSTLY ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET AND CEILINGS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE THE RULE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS BEING THE RULE SUNDAY MORNING ON.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIODS AS GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL  RESULT
IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.  THIS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

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