Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE WINTER THAT WON/T DIE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FIRST BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THEN PERHAPS BRINGING SOME
SNOWFLAKES TOMORROW NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THANKS TO THE TIME OF YEAR HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN SECTIONS
NEAR MIDNIGHT AND INTO MOST OTHER AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE RAPID REFRESH
HAS THIS AREA REACHING THE INDY METRO AREA NEAR 06Z. UPDATED THE
WORDING AND GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS.  ALSO
THE LIGHTNING AND STABILITY CHARTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL
DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS COLD FRONT WILL BE STILL WELL TO THE WEST AT
12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...WITH THUNDER THREAT ENDING AS THE FRONT PASSES...AND ONLY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
END LIKELY POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH
IF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS VERIFY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS INDICATE SOME SNOW MAY
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
WARM GROUND IS VERY LIKELY TO PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION HOWEVER.

CONSENSUS TEMPS APPEAR A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN WARMER MOS...WHICH
LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN 850 TEMP AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...AND
RAW MODEL TEMPS WHICH APPEAR TOO COLD FOR THE TIME OF YEAR/SUN
ANGLE. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN ACROSS
THE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR THE MOMENT.
HAVE INSERTED A FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REESTABLISH ON
THURSDAY...PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO
RECOVER FROM THE WINTRY BLAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER WAVE DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OP GFS AND GGEM
BOTH STRENGTHEN THE WAVE MORESO THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...
LEADING TO A SLOWER DEEPER CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP
THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION MIDWEEK...AND ALLOW FOR A WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE ALOFT
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...AND WARRANTS
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HINTS OF A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMUP RETURNING BEYOND THE 7 DAY
AS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST ORGANIZED LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALONG A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF
60 KTS SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES AFTER
10Z. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE EXPECTED ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS ANY IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES.

MOST OF THE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SO THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS
ON MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED.

EXPECTING CEILINGS INITIALLY AROUND 050...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL
OVERNIGHT AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY AS LIFT DIMINISHES.

GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...SURFACE GUSTS 22-28 KTS FROM
180-200 DEGREES EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT
140800Z AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

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