Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRATUS DECK REMAINS SOLID AT KIND...WITH BOTH KBMG AND KLAF NEAR
THE BACK EDGE. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING STRATUS TO LIFT AND
BEGIN TO BREAK UP. GOING TO HOLD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS CLIMBING ABOVE 3KFT THEREAFTER. CU GRADUALLY
DECREASES IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
N/NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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