Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 151431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND IT USHERING IN DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

ADDED POPS EARLIER IN THE NORTHWEST OWING TO THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. WHILE THE BEST UPPER FORCING
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. MUCAPES WILL RUN AROUND A COUPLE HUNDRED SO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
TEMPERATURES USED A MOS AVERAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GENERALLY PREFERRED
THE TIMING OF THE NAM AS THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST OF OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS WHILE THE NAM HAD THE BACKING OF SREFS AND ECMWF. THIS
MEANT KEEPING CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD BUT TAPERING
THEM OFF QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH IT FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE VERY SIMILAR AND AN AVERAGE WAS GENERALLY
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL AND DRY AND BECOME WARMER
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY OVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS AND BETTER CHANCES ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO MODEL INITIALIZED TEMPERATURES.
MAINLY TWEAKED LOWS DOWN A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH GOOD
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST HOUR.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
TONIGHT.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCSH SOME AREAS.
CHANCE OF THUNDER VERY IFFY AND WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.  EXPECT
CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SOONER AT KLAF.  CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY
TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BY END OF  THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND NORTH LESS
THAN 8 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/MK

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