Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010830
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT
THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW STILL OBSERVED UPSTREAM.
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST AROUND SUNRISE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH SOME LIFT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECTING THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES DURING THE DAY TODAY...HEAVIEST
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTHWEST.

RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF MAINLY 3-5 INCHES OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTALS WILL
PROBABLY APPROACH 6-7 INCHES BY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THESE
AREAS. HAVE UPGRADED THE CENTRAL ZONES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
HEADLINES UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE.

SO FAR...HAVEN/T SEEN TOO MANY REPORTS OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SNOW...BUT MODEL DATA SUGGEST ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY STILL GET INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE MIXED
TYPES IN THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK
REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART...SO ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST LIFT/DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST BY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH. MODEL DATA SUGGEST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF
60 KTS WILL BE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO EXPECTING ORGANIZED LIFT AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT...TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THAT TIME. APPEARS 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
SLEET...FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MAY BE TOO COOL. WILL NUDGE UP THE
NUMBERS A BIT IN THOSE PERIODS. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND A
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL STILL BE A GOOD BEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP THE COLD FRONT...SO POPS WILL
BE LOWER MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR...WENT MAINLY SNOW AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO FASTER
FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE THE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND/OR
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT TIME FOR ALL AREAS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD...GO WITH A 1SM PREVAILING VIS AND TEMPO
DOWN TO 1/2SM SN FOR THE NEXT 4 HOURS...UNTIL 10Z. THEN MODELS
HINT AT ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOW ON LATER TODAY SO KEPT IFR GOING
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

AS FOR LATER TODAY...RAIN MAY MIX IN AT KBMG BUT STILL FEEL ODDS ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION -RASN IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY KEEP THIS IN MIND FOR FUTURE AVIATION FORECAST UPDATES.

SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AND MOST
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND THIS TIME 00-03Z
SUNDAY. VFR MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...OUTSIDE
OF THIS TAF TIME PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035-038-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...SMF

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