Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261641
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1241 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND SOMEWHAT COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS
AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY FOR AN OVERALL MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE THIS MORNING AND EXPECTATION
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
FAIRLY DRY DURING THAT TIME FRAME SO WILL KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY AS
WELL.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
RUNNING A BIT COOL ON MAX TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. MIN TEMPS WERE RELATIVELY OK WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDS EAST...WITH THE RETURN OF A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER WAVE SET TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE...AND WILL BRING AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THREAT TO CENTRAL INDIANA BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR MAINTAINING A STRONGER WAVE INTO THE
REGION WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE WAVE ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WILL FOCUS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WAVE TRACKS THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BUILDS TO THE EAST
ACROSS INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOW SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AMID THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT.

AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST BUILDS
EASTWARD. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN
3F...LEADING TO AND IDEAL SET-UP FOR MVFR FOG AT MOST TAF SITES.
BRIEF IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF...HUF...AND BMG.

AS HEATING RESUMES ON THURSDAY MORNING A QUICK RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JP


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