Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 011813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

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