Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211810
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
210 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

High pressure from the Mississippi Valley east will dominate Indiana
weather into the weekend. Beginning Sunday night a series of cold
fronts should sweep across the Hoosier State every day or two.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

There is good model agreement about clear weather continuing under
stagnant high pressure. With little going on, temperatures should be
close to those last night. The blended forecast looks OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Saturday)...

Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

All the models are dry. There is also good agreement high pressure
at the surface and aloft should result in mostly clear skies through
tomorrow night. A very weak front should bring partly cloudy weather
starting Friday.

Temperatures are left as the forecast problem. Given the air mass
will be unchanged and what has occurred lately, MOS needs to be
raised about a category Thursday, while a blend should be good
Thursday night.

Temperatures get more uncertain starting Friday as amount of
cloudiness becomes an issue. The uncertainty is limited because the
underlying thermal fields are close. The blended forecast, which
will be used, should be accurate with 1-2 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Some differences on timing of front and precipitation next week
but this should eventually be resolved as trough in the west comes
ashore for better sampling. Until then warm and dry continues.

The flat upper ridging over the Midwest today with weak short
waves moving through the flow will amplify as the trough in
Pacific Northwest digs into the Rockies. This trough will be
progressive and push a surface trough and front into Indiana
late Monday into Tuesday producing some showers and a few
storms...some of which could be strong. Dry slotting between the
frontal cloud band and upper low should bring clearing back for
Wednesday.

Temperature guidance appeared pretty good and was followed. Above
normal max and min temperatures Sunday will transition towards
near to below normal Monday onward as frontal clouds and showers
arrive.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 211800z TAFs/...

Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

VFR with winds under 10 knots through the period. Only issue with
this may be brief localized ground fog around daybreak.

Storms will remain focused from mid Mississippi Valley into the
Great Lakes.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TDUD



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