Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  OTHERWISE AN UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THEN RETROGRADE TO THE ROCKIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.   THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE PUSH THROUGH
BY LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARDS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPPED SKY COVER AS STRATUS IS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAS JUST
ABOUT MOVED OUT. STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ARE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD JUST MISS THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK FORCING. ADDED THESE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE LOW POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE
FRONT STILL IN THE AREA. DID NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES YET...BUT MAY
HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT HAD ENDED ELSEWHERE.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE AGAIN LATER
TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE MU CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4,000 J/KG SOME AREAS. WILL GO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHER MET POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
AROUND 90 FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS OUR WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE AND WILL USE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS INDICATE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE...BUT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE MORE CAP AS HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE.   WOULD NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION THEM IN
THE SOUTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE NAM AND EURO SEEM TO
QUICK IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ENDING
IT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  PERTER THE SLOWER SOLUTION OFFERED BY
OTHER MODELS.  WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST HALF EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND CLOSER TO THE
COOLER MET TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHS TUESDAY WILL APPROACH 90 NORTH AND REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S SOUTHWEST.  SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE WEDNESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER IN SOME AREAS.   HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE USED IN A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE MODELS CONCUR IN HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER MOST OF
THE TIME. THIS MEANS MINOR VARIATION BETWEEN THEM WONT MAKE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

1415Z UPDATE...STRATO CU HANGING ON OVER THE AREA MUCH LATER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST AND HAVE THUS SENT OUT SEVERAL UPDATES
THROUGH THIS MORNING REFLECTING THIS TREND. MOST RECENT UPDATE
TOOK OUT VCTS AS THERE IS HAS BEEN NO DEVELOPMENT YET UPSTREAM AND
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING
SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONLY TO HAVE CONDITION
BECOME MOST CLEAR AND WINDS CALM LATE AND WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WET GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN
DETERMINING AVIATION WEATHER.

WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL BURN OFF
BY MIDMORNING. SHORTLY AFTER THAT A CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 3
THOUSAND FEET AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD REAPPEAR DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN DOF MAY RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...SMF/JK



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