Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP/JAS


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