Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290800
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...

The Synopsis, Near Term, and Short term sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A remnant frontal zone remains across the area, and this combined
with occasional weak upper level disturbances will continue to
produce daily threats for thunderstorms in a warm and moist
airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Expect another day with thunderstorms developing as the day wears
on, especially as a weak upper level wave moves into the area this
afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a pulse severe storm but
widespread severe threat is not expected.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable, but may be a bit low
in some areas, particularly the north where models may be
overdoing influence of convection early in the day. Made minor
adjustments.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Little will change during the first part of the weekend as the
remnant frontal zone and numerous convective outflow boundaries
will remain in the region. Will require daily low chances for
storms, same as in recent days. Chances will be somewhat lower
late in the weekend as the frontal zone makes some progress
southward and surface high pressure nudges into the area.

Consensus temperatures again appeared reasonable but did make some
minor upward adjustments on highs as models are likely overdoing
extent of precip coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through next Thursday/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Operational models and ensembles suggest an upper ridge will build
over central Indiana during the middle of next week. This will bring
a warm front northeast over the area along with thunderstorm
chances, mainly along and ahead of it through Wednesday. Then,
chances will return late in the week as an eastward moving Canadian
upper low results in increasing and veering upper flow. This should
force a cold front to approach central Indiana from the northwest by
next Friday.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmest days of the long term
with the ridge over the area. Regional blend appears to handle this
well with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 those days and mid and
upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 29/0600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1208 AM EDT Thu July 29 2016

Weak area of low pressure will continue to remain over the Ohio
Valley during the next 24 hours.  Thus, the air mass will remain
moist and moderately unstable to allow widely scattered TS develop
with heating during the afternoon and evening hours for most areas.

Earlier isolated acctivity brought VCTS to most of the sites in
central IN.  Given that there are still dew points from the upper
60s to low 70s, temperatures are already within 3 deg of those dew
points indicating mostly MVFR conditions due to fog during the early
morning hours.  Some sites that received some rain will probably
drop to IFR/LIFR for a few hours prior to sunrise, mainly KBMG and
KHUF, before going to MVFR due to ceilings after mid morning.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DWM


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