Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 131845
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

GOOD SUBSIDENCE MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT SO USED A BLEND AND WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER
YIELDING WIDESPREAD 40-44. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE UPPER
30S...WHICH WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO CONCERNING THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS...BUT STILL NOT WARRANT A STATEMENT AT THIS
TIME. WILL MENTION THE ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN HWO AND WX
STORY GRAPHIC FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SUNDAY VIRTUALLY A SLIGHTLY WARMER CARBON COPY OF THIS AFTERNOON/S
WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S(NORTH) TO
LOW 70S (SOUTH).

MODELS STILL DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL A BIT
LACKING AND MOISTURE MINIMAL...HOWEVER ALL THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. BASED ON HIGHER
CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES TO JUST SHY OF LIKELY.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO ANOTHER PICTURESQUE CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

GUIDANCE AGREES WELL THAT LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES A
BIT BELOW NORMAL. BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLES THIS WELL AND FEW
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. MAY SEE A WARMUP TO NEARER NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN TIME
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 13/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH SOME
ADDITIONAL BROKEN CUMULUS ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THESE HOWEVER APPEAR TO BE LOW END VFR. WILL CARRY SCT025
BKN035 AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH A
NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
FORM...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH. EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES POTENTIAL IFR AT LAF AND PERHAPS
BMG...AND MOS AGREES AT LEAST IN PART WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL
CARRY 1-2SM BR AND BCFG AT LAF/BMG AND 3SM AT HUF. IND LIKELY TO
REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

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