Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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680
FXUS63 KIND 290230
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place through the early
part of the work week, with chances for thunderstorms at times
through Wednesday, before a broad area of surface high pressure
moves into the area and brings cooler and drier conditions to
central Indiana.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
Issued at 1008 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Scattered convection finally starting to weaken and diminish in
coverage as heating has been lost. But...it has been another
active night in parts of central Indiana highlighted by localized
flash flooding from nearly stationary pulse intensity storms.
Merging outflows have led to a chaotic convective setup for the
last few hours and may still contribute to additional isolated
storms impacting parts of the area for the next few hours.

Hi-res guidance hints at maintaining at least some form of
convective coverage through about 06Z...especially associated with
a northwestward moving outflow approaching the Indy metro
currently. Considering how many remnant boundaries are littered
across the forecast area...cannot rule out at least some activity
continuing for the next few hours as these interact and will
carry 20-30 pops. Locally heavy rain will be the primary threat as
storms will continue to be very slow movers. Outside of any
lingering storms...muggy conditions will continue with patchy fog
developing late. Overnight lows around 70 still look good.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Will again carry thunder chances mainly tomorrow afternoon as in
the absence of more significant upper level support, any storms
will be largely diurnally driven. Surface high pressure nudging
further into the area should provide a dry spell Monday night into
much of Tuesday before an upstream cold front begins to approach
the area. The best chance for storms with this frontal system will
be Wednesday as it traverses the area.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable throughout the period, with
the exception of a minor bump upward on Monday highs as
thicknesses suggest similar temperatures to today should be
reached.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Big change in store for the long term as models and ensembles in
good agreement that strong high pressure in the wake of a cold
front will bring dry...cooler and much drier air to the area.
Regional blend handles this well. So, stuck with afternoon highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s through Saturday and lower to mid
80s Sunday. Overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s look
good as well.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 290300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Current radar indicates some isolated convection about 20 miles
southeast of the KIND terminal associated with an outflow boundary
that has been drifting northwest during the evening. Short term model
guidance suggests there may be more development along this boundary
over the next several hours, but this should remain to the south
and southeast of the KIND terminal. Will monitor convective trends.

Previous discussion follows.

Widely scattered convection continues across the area within
an unstable air mass with lifted indices in the -8 to -10 range.
Don`t see much in the way of upper level support for this
convection, so expecting most of the convective threat to
end by 290200Z or so. Brief IFR visibility restrictions and
gusty shifting winds in and near convective areas. CB based
around 040.

Otherwise, crossover temperatures suggest IFR conditions in fog
should develop after 290600Z tonight. Low confidence in LIFR
conditions as a light gradient may help keep the air mixed up
a bit. Due to an expected light wind off the city, threat for IFR
conditions at KIND is lower than the other terminals.

Outside of convective areas, surface winds 6 kts or less tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS



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