Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 160300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

The Near Term Section has been updated below.


Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

A low pressure system originating in the Southern Plains will be the
main focus early in the forecast period. Moisture will be limited
tonight though with just scattered light showers early, patchy
drizzle, and a slight chance across the northern counties for
freezing rain or patchy freezing drizzle for a few hours late. Rain
showers will then increase across the forecast area tomorrow from
west to east. Increased forcing could also result in some isolated
thunderstorms on Monday night. As the system pushes farther east,
dry conditions will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday.
Further out, three separate systems will approach from the
southwest, bringing periodic rain chances late in the week and next


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

HRRR and RAP continue to show some spotty light precip continuing
across the area through at least 9z or so and their soundings
support this, but very little if any qpf. Decided to add patchy
light drizzle to the area through much of the night as a result. A
quick check of forecast temperatures show a few hours below freezing
in some of the northern counties, so in those added patchy light
freezing drizzle. Any freezing should be pretty short-lived as
temperatures are forecast to start to increase late during the
overnight, but during those few hours it could produce a few slick
spots on roads in the north.

Low temperatures remain unchanged from afternoon issuance, with low
30s in the north to mid to upper 30s in the south.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be a low pressure
system approaching from the southwest.  Originating in the Southern
Plains, this system will track through the Missouri Valley on
Monday, advecting much warmer air ahead of it.  Temperatures will
soar above normal on Monday and Tuesday with highs topping off in
the mid to upper 50s across portions of Central Indiana.

Isentropic lift with aforementioned system strengthens most during
the Tue 00-12Z time frame.  As a result, will mention isolated
thunderstorms during that period which coincides with SPC`s day two
convective outlook.

Rain showers will linger through Tuesday and across the northern
sections of central Indiana on Tuesday night.  However, thunderstorm
threat will have ended by then as low pushes farther into the Lower
Great Lakes Region.  A wintry mix will be possible briefly on
Tuesday night across the northeastern counties on the tail end of
the system, but moisture will be limited by that point.  So, no
accumulations are expected.

Further out, GFS and Euro start to differ on day 4.  The GFS is
trending toward a moisture deprived upper low, while the Euro is
showing high pressure.  Either way, will trend toward a dry forecast
for Wednesday.  Temperatures by Wednesday will be a tad cooler with
highs in the low to upper 40s.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Models consistent in dry weather through at least Thursday morning
as an upper ridge moves over the area. Then, three straight
southwest systems will bring warm weather and periodic rain shower
chances to the area late this week and weekend. The ECMWF has been
running the quickest east with these systems compared to the GFS.
Regional blend goes along better with a slower solution that is also
preferred by WPC. So, will go with that. Highs could reach 60
degrees or so next week.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 160300z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 930 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Ceilings at KIND have improved, but MVFR visibility remains. Think
cloud deck will drop back to MVFR in a few hours, say 5z, and then
drop further within a few hours of that. Previous discussion

Some spotty shower activity could be seen at the sites especially
in the next couple of hours, but the main impact to operations
will be the ceilings. These are expected to stay low in the case
of KBMG where 600 ft are already in place, and to drop everywhere
else where MVFR to VFR is currently the rule. Should see them drop
to around 300 ft everywhere during the overnight hours, with
mainly MVFR visibilities with some good low level moisture but
still some boundary layer mixing to keep vsbys from getting too
low. Little improvement is expected through the day on Monday to
ceilings with them just bouncing between low and high IFR. Monday
afternoon/evening rain chances will pick up as a low pressure
system approaches from the plains.




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