Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240815
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
415 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Another hot and humid day is in store today across Central
Indiana...as the hot and humid air mass remains in place. A cold
front will sag south toward Central Indiana tonight and pass
across the states on Monday. This will bring chances fro showers
and storms late tonight and again on Monday.

Cooler High pressure is expected to arrive across the area on
Monday night and Tuesday...returning temperatures closer to
seasonal normals.

Another low pressure system is expected to arrive in the area late
in the work week bringing chance for showers and storms back to
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /today/...

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Surface analysis early this morning shows broad high pressure
over Appalachia...with weak...diffuse southerly flow in place
across the ohio valley. Dew point temps remained down right
awful...in the middle 70s. A convective complex was found across
NW Indiana...and was moving southeast. Water vapor imagery shows a
tropical flow of moisture streaming north into the desert
southwest...across the central plains to the Great Lakes and
Indiana.

Rapid refresh continues to suggest the complex will drift
east...remaining north of the forecast area through the early
morning hours. However...GFS propagation thicknesses suggest a
more southeast motion. 700mb temps across the area remain near
12c...effecting capping additional development. Will try and keep
the precip mention out of the forecast early this
morning...however debris clouds are expected to linger across the
area through the early morning hours.

GFS forecast soundings then remain dry through the day...with
convective temps in the middle to upper 90s. Aloft...models
suggest little forcing or short waves available fro triggering.
Thus will trend toward a partly cloudy sky today. As for
temps...heat advisory appears on track given the expected sun
shine and little change in the overall air mass. Will trend highs
at or above persistence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

GFS and NAM both suggest an upper short wave arriving over the
upper midwest tonight...helping a surface cold front to begin to
sag southward toward Indiana. GFS is a bit more aggressive with a
few waves ahead of the trough as should be expected ahead of the
cold front in the very warm and moist air mass. Forecast soundings
show plenty of CAPE available...and with the cold front
approaching...mainly late...this extra triggering should be able
to generate storms. Will Trend pops higher than
mavmos...particularly across the northwest of the forecast area
where front arrives first. Again will trend lows at or above
mavmos...particularly southeast...as the the cold front
approaches.

FROPA looks to occur near 12z...and forecast soundings hint
toward saturation. Thus will continue to keep pop at or above
mavmos as the forcing passing during the morning hours on Monday.
Conditions should trend toward dry as the day progress as high
pressure builds across the area and forecast soundings show
drying through the column. With morning clouds and very weak cold
air advection...will trend highs on monday cooler than mavmos.

Subsidence and drying with the column is seen within forecast
soundings on Monday night through Tuesday night. This will lead to
partly cloudy skis through this period...along with near normal
temps. Will stick to a blend on temps here.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The long term pattern is characterized by a broad upper ridge over
the southern U.S. with a large upper low over northern Quebec
suppressing the ridge over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This
will set up a situation where upper shortwaves move through the
main flow prompting thunderstorm chances as they interact with a
front that will stall out and meander across the area. Timing
specific waves is a futile effort given model variability so will
use the superblend guidance without deviation, which broadbrushes
chances for thunderstorms throughout the long term. Temperatures
should return to near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the
mid to upper 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/0900Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 415 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Visibilities are falling at the southern sites due to ample low
level moisture and relatively calm conditions. IFR and lower
visibilities are expected through mid morning at KBMG, with MVFR and
periods of IFR at KHUF. LAF had a convective outflow boundary move
through to stir things up and may not fall as much as earlier
anticipated so will improve their forecast to just a couple of hours
of MVFR around daybreak. At KIND changed the winds to reflect the
passage of the outflow boundary, but resultant TAF category still
the same. Relevant parts of previous discussion follow...

Surface high pressure is located over eastern Ohio into the
Tennessee Valley. This will begin to bring a light southerly flow
into central IN later today. Convective complex over northern IN
will lay down a boundary that will interact with a front that will
extend across northern IN and will be the focus for -TSRA on Sunday
mainly for KLAF and KMIE.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...DWM/CP



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