Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 311448
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH TO THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES TODAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS THE LOW DEPARTS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING COOLER...LESS
HUMID AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NAVIGATES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWERS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE NORTH OF
GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. RADAR SHOWED A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CIRCULATING AROUND THE
LOW. DEW POINTS IN CENTRAL INDIANA WERE STILL QUITE HUMID...IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. BEST FORCING WILL
DEPART CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE INITIAL UPPER
SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST ALSO. MEANWHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE AN IDEAL SET UP FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE THE
MAVMOS POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...COOL NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN
MAVMOS...CLOSER THE MAVMOS 3 HOURLYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TUESDAY
AND DIG SOUTH TOWARD LOUISIANA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA. MID LEVELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE FOR ANY
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH DURING THIS PERIOD...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IMPLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. LOOKING
LOWER...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUE COOL AND DRY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TRY AND TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY BREAKING UP ON MONDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD EXPECTED ON TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL TREND
LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS TONIGHT AND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS NEUTRAL ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOLDING AROUND 9C. WITH SOME CLEARING AND MORE SUN
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY....WILL USE A BLEND OF METMOS AND MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL THE MAIN MODELS.

STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF PERIOD THE REGIONAL
BLEND WILL ALSO BE USED BUT ONLY WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE GFS
HAS A LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WHICH CERTAINLY BOOSTS CONFIDENCE.

HOWEVER...BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND UKMET MODELS START TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE GFS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TENDS TO BE THE
BEST MODEL OF ALL...BUT THE EUROPEAN AND UKMET MODELS ARE ALSO GOOD.
GIVEN NEITHER SUPPORTS THE GFS THERE CAN BE ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN IT DESPITE THE LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311212Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PASSING BY. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 600-1200FT.
ADDED MENTION OF -DZ AT KIND FOR NEXT FEW HOURS BASED OFF LIGHT
RETURNS.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND A LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST A COLD DAMP
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER INDIANA FOR THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE P6SM EXCEPT BRIEFLY
MVFR IN SHOWERS THAT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...BUT END IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK/RYAN

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