Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 181425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...PROVIDING A COOL AND DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN
THE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ALSO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY. THUS ONLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A FEW CU POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE.

OVERALL...SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED 030-040 WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PATCHY GROUND FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT THE OUTLYING
SITES...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU. WINDS WILL BE
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

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