Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 022027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 022100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RYAN/MK


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