Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 192020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
319 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

A weakening cold front is expected to move through the area Monday
night into Tuesday morning. A stronger low pressure system may
affect the area towards the later parts of the week.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Dry weather expected tonight as surface ridge drifts off to the
east. Synoptic pattern favorable for the development of low
clouds/fog again later tonight, given a light gradient and the
potential for residual moisture to get trapped under a shallow low
level inversion.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight look
reasonable for the most part, so any adjustments will be minor.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Lingering fog early Monday morning should burn off by the mid to
late morning hours Monday.

Model data suggest a short wave trough will push through the Great
Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday, dragging a weakening cold
front through the local area. Appears there may a decent amount of
lift, albeit rather narrow, for a precipitation threat late Monday
night into Tuesday morning over the northern zones. Will go with
PoPs starting Monday night and continuing through early Tuesday
evening to cover the passage of this system, with the highest PoPs
coinciding with the best lift.

Some weak elevated instability may be associated with this feature
as well, but convective parameters not very impressive at this

Will go with a dry forecast by Wednesday as upper flow becomes zonal
in the wake of short wave trough, and weak surface high pressure
develops over the area.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Monday
may be on the cool side. Will nudge the guidance highs up a bit in
that period. The remainder of the periods look OK for now.


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday night Through Sunday/...
Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2017

The highlights of the long term will be warm weather for the
remainder of next week with a return to seasonable temperatures by
Saturday. In addition, unsettled weather is on tap late week with
strong storms possible Friday.

Models are having temporal and spacial issues with a potent system
that will be developing over the Rockies midweek and lifting
northeast across the Plains and then Great Lakes late week and into
the weekend. Thus, confidence in timing amd coverage of looming
convection is not great and will accept the Superblend which has the
highest pops Friday afternoon and evening and is dry by Saturday.
Prior to that, a front will drop southeast over the area before
lifting back to the north Thursday and Thursday night. Superblend
output has small pops over all or parts of the area by Wednesday

Model instability progs support thunder chances Thursday afternoon
through Friday. Adjacent offices agreed through coordination. With
such strong dynamics and some instability...day6 SPC outlook
supports severe possibility with mainly a damaging wind threat.

Low level thermal progs and expected cloud cover support well above
normal blend temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70 through Friday
and more seasonable highs mostly in the 40s by Saturday in the wake
of the cold front.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 192100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Lingering cloud cloud near 015 has dissipated, so will take this out
of the forecast for the rest of the afternoon and early evening.
Previous discussion follows.

Visible satellite loop indicates thin spots developing within the
low cloud deck, so expecting lingering IFR/patchy LIFR conditions
to lift and scatter out over the next couple of hours.

May see redevelopment of IFR ceilings/visibilities after 200300Z
tonight given limited mixing and residual moisture trapped under a
shallow low level inversion.

Surface winds generally at or below 6 kts through this evening.




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