Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 292026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
424 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016


The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A warm and humid airmass remains in place across central Indiana,
but a break is on the way as a frontal system will move through
the area mid week, providing additional thunderstorm chances. This
front will be followed by cooler, drier air and a break from
recent daily rains.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Cumulus field across the area is anemic but still cannot rule out
an isolated storm or two late this afternoon. Any storm would be
very slow moving and could produce heavy rainfall in a short
amount of time. Any storm that forms should be dissipating near
00Z and will carry no pops into the overnight.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable based on low level
thicknesses and persistence numbers.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

With surface high pressure nudging into the area tomorrow, expect
a bit of a break from storm chances over much of the area, but
will have to carry slight chance pops across the far west in the
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance approaches.

More substantial thunder chances will be required Wednesday as a
cold front moves through the area. Dynamics are weak as is typical
so little severe threat is expected. Heavy rain and hydro concerns
will again be the main issue. Beyond Wednesday high pressure will
overspread the area, allowing for a return to dry weather that
appears likely to persist into the weekend.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable if slightly cool in spots on
max temps, particularly tomorrow when models may be overdoing QPF
and resultant impact on temps. Minor adjustments made.


.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Models in and ensembles in good agreement that benign weather is in
store for late week, and the weekend.

The late week will see an upper ridge over the central United States
and an upper trough over New England and the eastern Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, broad surface high pressure will be from Hudson Bay to
the southern Plains. This will result in cool and dry weather
Thursday night with regional blend lows in the 50s looking good. The
upper ridge will point toward the Great Lakes late Friday as the
surface high moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Later in the
weekend, the high will be over New England, which will allow
temperatures and humidity levels to gradually rebound. Return flow
will increase even more early next week ahead of an approaching cold
front. This could result in a few storms northwest by Monday.

The regional blend temperatures start off below normal with highs in
the mid and upper 70s Friday and then increase to near normal by
Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 80s. So, no reason to deviate
with such good model agreement.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 292100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 424 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Some build ups noted off to the northeast of the KIND terminal based
on satellite. Overall air mass is less unstable than it was
yesterday, so convection may have a harder time getting going this
afternoon. Will keep the forecast as is for now, and monitor
convective trends for the rest of the afternoon.

Previous discussion follows.

Confidence is high in VFR flying conditions for all or most of the
TAF period.

Upper high over southeastern Illinois and surface high over the
eastern Great Lakes should keep coverage of any pop up thunderstorms
low enough to only have VCTS through 23z. Cu development progs and
soundings suggest scattered to broken diurnal cu with bases 3-4k
feet this afternoon and 4-5k feet tomorrow after 17z. Did not have
fog last night and with calm or light northeast winds tonight, kept
fog out for now.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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