Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231747
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
147 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into Tuesday. A frontal
system is expected to affect the area towards the middle and end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 939 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Tweaked high temperatures up in some
locations, but no significant changes made.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Little in the way of significant cloud cover expected
with low humidity values throughout the atmospheric column.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs
for today, so only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Model data suggest upper ridge will flatten out towards the middle
of the week. At the surface, a frontal system is expected to drop
south from the Great Lakes, possibly as far south as northern
Indiana by Wednesday. 850mb flow into the front not particularly
strong, about 20-25 kts, but the location of enhanced flow is in a
favorable area for convective development in the local area by
late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Model data also
suggest the eastern fringes of a large EML plume over the Plains
may move into the area by Wednesday. Given the above, will
continue with chance PoPs starting Tuesday night through the end
of the short term.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the short term looks reasonable. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 231800Z tafs/...

Issued at 1256 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will remain in place during this taf period.

High pressure and associated subsidence will remain across the taf
sites through the course of the TAF period. Forecast soundings and
time height sections show a dry column. Convective temps show
reachable values on Tuesday...thus have trended toward some SCT VFR
CU then.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP



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