Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 051828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER RAINY PERIOD SHOULD
BEGIN AS A FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS. LATE IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO TAKE CHARGE OF INDIANA WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH ALL MODELS POINTING TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHWEST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO MINIMUMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. GIVEN THE MAV HAS
CAPTURED THIS...AND DID VERY LAST NIGHT...IT WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE MONDAY IS GOING TO
BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THEY ALSO AGREE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL BE IN MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A FRONT WILL STALL.

WHERE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOESNT AGREE IS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV WETTER THAN THE MET.

QPF FROM THE EUROPEAN...GFS...NAM...AND SREF WERE COMPARED.
DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AND A CHANCE IT WILL NOT. ITS LOGICAL
TO USE THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE SUBSTANTIAL QPF TUESDAY. A CATEGORICAL RAIN FORECAST IS IN
ORDER.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS COULD CAUSE BIG
ERRORS. A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEST TO
CAPTURE SKILL FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HAZE HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF AND CU HAS DEVELOPED AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE APPROACHED. THIN CIRRUS FROM UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AS WELL. THE CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MOST CU DIMINISHING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES NEAR CALM.

ANY HAZE OR MIST LINGERING MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUPPORT DIURNAL CU FORMATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE APPROACHED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

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