Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 270829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
428 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The Aviation Section has been updated below.


Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure over northern Indiana and a trailing cold front across
west central Indiana will move east across our region by midday
High pressure over the upper midwest will move east across Indiana

A mild southerly flow will develop on the back side of this high
pressure system Friday as it moves on to the east.  Unseasonably
mild conditions will occur Saturday and again early next week as a
strong upper ridge builds over the southern U.S.   A weak frontal
system will move our way and stall over northern sections Sunday and
then move back to the north.   Another weak frontal system will move
our way around the middle of next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure was over northern Indiana and a weak cold front
extended southwest across west central Indiana and southern
Illinois.  The cold front will move rapidly east across central
Indiana this morning as the low pressure system moves towards the
eastern great lakes.

Radar indicated widely scattered light showers were occurring over
central Indiana and a few areas in eastern Illinois were reporting
patchy drizzle.  Could a few light showers or patchy drizzle over
the eastern half of our region early this morning.    Satellite and
weather depiction indicated lots of low clouds upstream to our west
and cloudy skies should persist well into the afternoon before
breaking up late today.

Will go with partly cloudy conditions late today and early tonight
with some areas becoming mostly clear later tonight.  Temperatures
will fall into the lower 50s or lower after the cold front moves
through and remain in the 50s most areas later today.  Went with
highs from the lower 50s northwest to around 60 far southeast.

With light winds and clearing tonight went a little cooler with lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The high pressure system which will move across Indiana tonight will
move on to the east Friday and a milder southerly flow on the back
side of this high will allow temperatures to become warmer Friday.
With lots of sun and warm advection went a little warmer than MOS
temperatures.   Highs Friday will be from the middle 60s northeast
to the lower 70s southwest.

The rest of the short term period will be unseasonably mild with a
moderate southerly flow.  Models indicate a strong upper ridge will
build over the deep south.   Lows will be in the middle 50s Friday
night and middle to upper 50s Saturday night.  Highs Saturday will
be in the middle to upper 70s.

Believe super blend winds are too light Saturday and went closer to
ConsRaw values.  Could see winds gusts 20 knots or higher Saturday.

A weak cold front will stall across the northern parts of our region
by Sunday.  This front could bring a few showers to northern areas
late Saturday night.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement during this period. A short
wave trough is expected to be passing east through the Great Lakes
on Sunday. Will keep a lingering chance PoP over mainly the
northeastern zones during the day Sunday to cover the exiting system.

Otherwise, the ensembles indicate upper ridging will build over the
southeast parts of the country, as a trough lifts northeast through
the Plains into the western Great Lakes during the early to middle
parts of next week. As a result, will bring in chance PoPs for
Tuesday night into next Wednesday.

Temperatures expected to be well above normal given the upper


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 270900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Appears wind shift with cold front is about 8-10 miles northwest
of the KIND terminal. Expecting a wind shift there to 280-300
degrees with gusts to 18-20 kts shortly before 270900Z. There
will be a period of ceilings 005-008 AGL in the vicinity of the
front, along with some light rain and drizzle, but it appears
these lower conditions will last only a few hours.

Previous discussion follows.

Showers will move away from the sites over the next few hours, but
ceilings will drop in their wake and then drop even more after the
cold frontal passage. Expect IFR to move in from the west and
overspread the sites after around 7-8z. Ceilings should start to
improve by later this morning and then rise to VFR by late afternoon
as the low pressure system moves further away from the area. Winds
will continue to veer around to southwesterly and then northwesterly
by afternoon.




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