Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240723
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
322 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The Long term Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

High pressure moving off to the east will give way to a more
active weather pattern for the next few days. Thunderstorm chances
will remain in the area from late tonight through early Friday
morning. An eastward shift and suppression of the upper ridge will
allow for a return of thunderstorm chances on upper waves Saturday
through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Remnant vorticity center tied to earlier convection over Missouri is
currently moving through southwest Illinois. This feature is expected to
move through the area later tonight. Potential for some convection associated
with this feature later tonight as warm advection increases, but short term
model data not too bullish with this potential. Appears the better forcing
will remain off to the west through sunrise Wednesday, closer to the low level
jet. Previous forecast has some PoPs after 240600Z, and this still looks OK
at this time. No updates planned.

Previous discussion follows.

Isentropic lift will increase later tonight as a warm front
approaches from the southwest. This will bring increasing clouds
and higher dew points to the area. Chances for thunderstorms will
arrive late tonight first in the west and overspreading most of
the area by morning, with the highest chances in the northwest
where upper forcing will help as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances. Models are in pretty
good agreement and will generally use a blend. Low level jet will
come into play Wednesday through Thursday and will enhance forcing
enough that when combined with the instability could help produce
strong to isolated severe storms. The cold front will move through
late Thursday afternoon into the evening and this will usher in
cooler temperatures and bring an end to the precip chances for
most of the area Friday morning. Temperatures will climb to the
mid 80s on Wednesday and the upper 80s to around 90 on Thursday
ahead of the front. Lows will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A stagnant late summer pattern will be the rule as models keep a
strong upper ridge of high pressure across the middle atlantic
states...eastern Kentucky and Tennessee.  They weaken it some
towards day 7.  Models also move an upper trough from the
upper midwest early on across the great lakes.

On the surface...high pressure over the eastern great lakes early
Saturday will move on to the east and a weak frontal system will
meander across our region much of the long term before drifting
to the south by late Tuesday.

Blended models give 20-30 percent POPS most of the long term period
with the exception of Saturday which should start out dry at...least
over eastern and central sections.  Temperatures will be slightly
above normal Sunday and Monday and near normal rest of the period.
Generally stayed close to model initialized temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 240600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

MVFR conditions possible this morning and in scattered convection
throughout the day...otherwise VFR expected.

Clouds will continue to overspread the region through the predawn
hours with ceilings steadily dropping to 3500-4000ft as a warm front
lifts into the area. Most recent hi-res guidance continues to keep
bulk of the rain showers west of the terminals until near daybreak
Wednesday and with limited forcing present this seems reasonable.

The passage of the warm front and approach of a low level jet should
enable a better threat for rain showers through the morning and will
maintain tempos for showers and MVFR conditions. Thunder chances
will increase for the afternoon as the region moves into the warm
sector with scattered convection developing. Should see a decrease
in convective coverage this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Storms may linger closer to the forcing aloft over northern
Indiana...and will maintain a VCTS mention at KLAF through the end
of the forecast period. Southwest winds will increase above 10kts
with some gusts to near 20kts this afternoon before backing to
southerly and diminishing this evening.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JAS
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...RYAN/JH


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