Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 242023
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
422 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

High pressure will keep dry weather over the area through Wednesday.
Late Wednesday night a cold frontal system will approach and move
through on Thursday, and this could lead to strong storms and heavy
rain. The chances for thunderstorms will move out of the area by
Friday morning, and dry weather will take its place. Temperatures
will warm to the upper 80s Wednesday but then cool back to the lower
80s and even some upper 70s for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

High pressure builds across the area tonight and dry weather will
be the result. Winds will be fairly light tonight but dew points
will be fairly cool in the low to mid 60s. With little to no fog
this morning and seemingly better conditions then, do not expect
fog overnight as an entire day of drying has taken place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Models are in good agreement on dry conditions Tuesday through
Wednesday and thus high confidence. Tuesday highs should remain in
the lower to mid 80s based on continued cool advection battling
ample sunshine. On Wednesday high pressure starts to move off to the
east and temperatures will warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s
and humidity will start to increase late.

Late Wednesday night is when things start to get interesting.
Models start to vary in timing of the arrival of a cold front and an
upper wave that will impact the area. Good dynamics are available
with this system, but instability may be lacking if it arrives
overnight/early Thursday. The cold front moving through later on
Thursday would allow the potential for better destabilization and
thus better severe potential. With such variability in timing but
main forcing like an upper wave and front moving through, have high
confidence that sometime between late Wednesday night and Thursday
evening much of the area will see thunderstorms, but low confidence
on the timing in that window. And that low confidence in timing
leads to low confidence in severe potential as well as placement of
any heavy rain axis.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually end from the
north Thursday night as a cold front across Indiana moves to the
southeast and low pressure over southern Lake Erie moves east.
Models this run have trended a little faster with the cold front and
Friday now looks dry.

The rest of the long term period will be dry with slightly cooler
than normal temperatures as high pressure over the upper midwest
moves towards Indiana.  Some models indicate a slight chance of
showers by the end of day 7...but will keep everything dry for now.

Stayed close to superblend POPS and temperatures most of this period.
Lows will be in the 60s Friday morning and upper 50s to near 60 over
the weekend.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and
Saturday warming to 80 to 85 by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 242100z IND TAF Update...

Issued at 422 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Made tweak and simplification to VFR fair weather cu, otherwise no
changes.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

High pressure will build over central Indiana during the TAF period.
An MVFR cu deck is expanding south over the area, but cloud bases
are also rising as it does so. Expect to see some MVFR at the
northern sites off and on for the next couple of hours before bases
rise above 3000 ft, and could see a brief drop to MVFR at the
southern sites but do not expect this to last if it occurs so will
leave out there.

Clouds will scatter in the evening and clear around sundown. Dry
advection should preclude fog development overnight. Winds will be
light with a northerly component tonight but shift to more easterly
Tuesday morning.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP/MK



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