Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 141032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND INTO THIS EVENING. THE COOL
AIR WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS MEANDERING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...ALLOWING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THEN
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AMPLE MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW CWA...WITH ACTIVITY WORKING IT/S WAY
SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PICK UP IN
STRENGTH WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS BUMPED THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR CENTRAL INDIANA NORTHWARD...FOR BASICALLY
AROUND I-70 AND SOUTHWARD. SEVERE THREATS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
ENDED ALL POPS BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
MID WEEK...USHERING IN A WELL BELOW NORMAL CLIMO PERIOD IN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A GRADUALLY WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THERE IS STILL SUPPORT FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT AROUND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY FROM SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES AS A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOSE TO PUTTING A POP IN THE FORECAST
DURING THOSE PERIODS AS THE TREND SEEMS TO TIPPING IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA CURRENTLY
IMPACTING KBMG IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO EXITING THAT TERMINAL BY
ISSUANCE TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX...SOME IFR CEILINGS 005-008 AGL HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
THESE CEILINGS WILL AFFECT KHUF/KIND/KBMG FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT
OF TIME THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE.

OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER ABOUT 142100Z AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. VARIABLE
AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
020-030.

GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME
230-260 WITH SPEEDS 10-14 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.