Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN TO END THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

THOSE STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. NOT SURE IF ALL OF THESE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT GIVEN A RECENT GRADUAL TURN
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND CARRY THEM INTO THE EVENING.

AFTER THE ISOLATED CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING FOCUS WILL THEN TURN
TO OTHER STORMS MOVING IN LATE. SOME MODELS SHOW STORMS SURVIVING
AND MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG A PREFRONTAL FEATURE. WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT AROUND...FEEL THAT THIS THREAT LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS 08-12Z.

WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE A MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION OR ITS REMNANTS MAY
HELP INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF IT DIES QUICKLY OR
DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY.
TRIED TO TIME HOURLY POPS SO THAT BEST CHANCE OCCURS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST TO MID AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BUT THESE
TOO MAY DEPEND ON HOW MORNING CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTHWEST...BUT
THEE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. THIS PLUS THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAIN/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO NOT ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY.

KEPT SOME LOW END EVENING POPS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS
INTO FRIDAY. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND IS LOOKING COMPLETELY DRY AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT NOT MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY...WITH A SECONDARY AND EVEN WEAKER FRONT
FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY. INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THESE FEATURES. GENERALLY WENT WITH
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION AS THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS OF MVFR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT A TERMINAL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR REST OF THE TIME.

VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION...HOWEVER
CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MVFR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL TOO EARLY AND
WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO
A PARTICULAR SITE AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS
MAINLY STARTING LATER IN THE MORNING...THOUGH A LITTLE EARLIER FOR
SITES TO THE NORTHWEST SUCH AS LAF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF



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