Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 300827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
425 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A strong upper level Low Pressure system over kentucky is expected
to slowly drift north across Indiana today and Saturday. This will
be showery weather to Central Indiana for the
first half of the weekend.

On Sunday...the low is expected to drift farther north to the
eastern Great High Pressure build across the
Mississippi River Valley...bringing near seasonal temperatures and
dry weather for much of the next work week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Surface analysis early this morning shows Low pressure over the
Carolinas...with north/northeast flow across Central Indiana.
Water vapor imagery shows a deep and large cut-off low in place
over Kentucky...influencing much of the weather across the eastern
third of the United States. Radar mosaics show scattered showers
arriving across Central Indiana from the east...flowing around the
upper low to the south.

GFS suggests the upper low will slowly begin to meander northward
across Indiana today and tonight. Forecast soundings show deep
saturation through the day...but limited instability. Time heights
also show excellent lower level saturation. Thus with ample
moisture and forcing expected given the upper pattern...will raise
pops today and keep showers in the grids. Cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder as well....but widespread storms are not expected.
Given the expected clouds and rain will trend highs closer to the
3 hourly guidance values.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Wet weather looks to persist through at least Saturday as the
upper low slowly treks across Indiana. Forecast soundings and Time
height sections continue to indicate saturation within the column
through the period. Thus will continue the ongoing trend through
the period of raising pops...with low temps warmer than guidance
and highs cooler. Given limited heating during the overnight
hours...will try to keep isolated thunder mention to the daytime

Changes arrive by late on GFS and NAM suggest ridging
over the Mississippi River valley nudging the broad low to the
northeast. Dry air begins to enter the column as forecast
soundings begin to dry out on Sunday. Thus as the moisture and
forcing departs...will begin to trend toward a dry forecast for
Sunday and Sunday Night. Will work a blend on Highs for Sunday and
lows on Sunday night.


.LONG TERM /Monday through next Thursday/...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Ensembles in fairly good agreement with the expected weather
pattern during this period. Upper ridge initially over the Ohio
Valley early next week will gradually shift east as an upper
trough lifts northeast towards the upper Mississippi Valley by the
middle of next week.

A weakening cold front associated with the western trough is
expected to possibly begin affecting the local area by next
Wednesday or Thursday. Timing differences exist with this front,
with some of the members suggesting front may not make it into the
area by next Thursday. Will keep some PoPs in the forecast for
mainly Wednesday night and Thursday for now.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 300900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Appears there will be a lull in the rain threat at the KIND
terminal through the late morning hours as some mid level drier air
wraps around the upper low. Precipitation/convective threat expected
to pick up again towards midday.

Been some areas of IFR ceilings 006-009 AGL developing across
the area over the past hour or so. These ceilings will probably
affect the KIND terminal at times through mid to late morning.

Previous discussion follows.

Conditions will deteriorate overnight to MVFR and periods of IFR as
an upper low continues to spin over the region.

Cannot rule out isolated thunder mainly during the day Friday. Will
include prob30 mentions of this.

Winds will be less than 10kt through the period, initially with a
northerly component. Winds will become more easterly/southeasterly
through the period.




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