Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 171417

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
917 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 307 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Very warm conditions for the second half of February will be the
rule during the next week, with highs mainly in the 60s. A weak
system could bring a little rain to parts of the area on Saturday,
with a frontal system bringing more rain chances during next work


.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 307 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

High clouds will continue to flow across the area into mid-morning,
but they will then diminish as upper ridging builds into the area.

Warmer air will continue to flow into the area from the southwest.
This plus the increasing sunshine during the day should lead to
temperatures above the GFS MOS values.


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/
Issued at 307 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Clouds will begin to increase overnight tonight as an upper level
low moves toward the lower Mississippi valley. Temperatures will
remain mild with lows only in the 40s (warmer than average maximum
temperatures for this time of year).

As the upper low moves into the Tennessee Valley, moisture will
increase mainly across the southern forecast area. At the moment it
appears that better forcing will remain south of the forecast area,
but enough of it will get into the southern forecast area to go with
low PoPs Saturday into Saturday evening. (While the NAM and ECMWF
are farther north with rainfall, the GFS and SREF ensembles keep
rain south. Thus stayed with keeping rain across the south).

Upper ridging then builds in for Sunday keeping the area dry.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the short term.
Clouds and some light rain look to keep readings down a bit across
the south Saturday. However, if the system goes farther south,
warmer readings would occur.


.LONG TERM.../Monday Through Thursday/
Issued at 307 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

An upper trough and surface front will move through the area around
Tuesday, and then the surface front will stall out as upper flow
becomes more zonal once again. The result will be low chances for
rain for parts of the area Tuesday through Thursday.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period.


.AVIATION (Discussion for 171500Z TAF update)...

Issued at 918 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

The main change was to mention gustiness in the afternoon, based
on latest upper air and radar wind profiler observations.

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Mainly high clouds are expected through the period. Some mid cloud
may move in late.

Surface winds will get into the 10-15kt range at times during the
day, with gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon.




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