Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
257 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure to the north and low pressure to the southeast will
work together to dominate Indiana weather through Monday.
A cold front is forecast to approach Tuesday and cross our state
Wednesday. Thursday and Friday the cold front should change into a
warm front that will move north, traversing Hoosierland as it does.


.NEAR TERM (Today and Tonight)...

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The main issue is when rain will end.

The latest GFS and NAM end precipitation considerably sooner than
earlier runs did. The latest HRR and cold clouds upstream on
satellite weigh against this. Consensus POPS look like a good
compromise. They are drier than earlier but not as much as the
GFS/NAM and associated guidance. This has some chance of rain
past 00Z, but everything over well before dawn.

The same system causing rain chances today will also cause
cloudy skies. There is strong guidance agreement about clouds
decreasing overnight as the chance of rain dwindles.

Given consensus seems to have the best POPs, it should also do
well with temperatures.


.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Monday night)...

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Skies should be mostly clear given excellent model agreement
about a persistent very dry northeast flow. Gradual warming is on
tap as long sunny days modify the air. There is good alignment
between temperature guidance. The consensus forecast should be
accurate to within a couple degrees.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Ensembles suggest a short wave trough will lift through the western
Great Lakes around the middle of next week. Will keep some PoPs
going from Tuesday night through Thursday to cover this feature.

Otherwise, ensembles indicate upper pattern may become highly
amplified by late next week, with a deep long wave trough centered
over the Rockies and high Plains, and a sharp upper ridge along the
East Coast. Depending on the eventual strength and position of the
upper ridge, the midweek frontal system may stall out or dissipate
over the area by next Friday. Will keep some PoPs in the forecast on
Friday for now, but if upper ridge starts to come in stronger on
later model runs, it may cutoff precipitation potential late next


.AVIATION /Discussion for 22/06Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1116 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Radar and High Resolution Rapid Refresh suggest the showers will be
isolated or scattered to start, even at BMG. Then, expect widespread
showers to reach at least BMG after 08z. IND and HUF will be near
the northern edge. The shower threat will continue through 00z
Sunday and possibly beyond as the southern system lifts northeast
along a Tennessee Valley front, and an upper system moves over the
Ohio Valley. Good confidence LAF should see VFR with dry weather.
The other sites should see mostly VFR per the SREF, but could see
MVFR in showers at times.

Northeast winds less than 10 knots will become 10 to 15 with gusts
to 20 after 15z.




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