Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190834
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
434 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
No sections updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

A weak disturbance moving through the area today will bring
showers and a few thunderstorms, especially early, before
precipitation ends by this evening and dry weather returns for
most of the next week under the influence of a strengthening
ridge aloft. Temperatures through the period will remain above
normal for the time of year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Showers and thunderstorms associated with upper level disturbance
are making their way through central Indiana this morning, and
will continue to do so. Will carry the highest pops during the
morning hours, tapering off to chances in the afternoon, as while
the initial round will likely be through, additional development
could occur over the area. Do not expect a severe weather threat.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable given the expected
morning precipitation and cloud cover, but ample opportunity for a
few breaks in the clouds and some warming later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Vast majority of the short term will be dry as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the area. Will carry low pops in the
east very early this evening, ending by 03Z to account for any
lingering activity that develops this afternoon. A frontal zone
will approach late Wednesday night, and will carry a slight chance
of showers then to account for this, but this is quite low
confidence.

Consensus temperatures appear reasonable throughout per low level
thicknesses, and expect a warmup back into the mid 80s to low 90s
across the area Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

ECMWF suggests dry weather with above normal temperatures through
this period. ECWMF shows strong ridging in place aloft across the
eastern half of the country. The strong ridge looks to keep
Indiana protected from passing dynamics...keeping them well
northwest of Indiana. Meanwhile at the surface strong subsidence
beneath the ridge results in surface High pressure across the
eastern Great Lakes that keep as dry Easterly flow across Indiana
through the weekend. thus have trended toward a dry forecast. With
little to no change in air mass...have trended highs at or above
the forecast builder blend as warm air reigns supreme under the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 190900Z IND Taf Update/...

Radar shows bands of Thunderstorms pushing across the LAF and IND
Taf Sites Some associated MVFR/IFR Cigs were found with the
showers and storms. The upper wave pushing through the area will
continue to slowly push east this morning before exiting by late
afternoon. Thus...mainly VFR conditions will be expected due to
the scattered nature of the storms...however brief MVFR
Cigs/visbies will be possible with any shower/thunderstorm.

/Discussion for 190600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1133 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Restrictions possible within convection through the afternoon. More
widespread lower ceilings possible this morning as well.

convection has largely diminished over the forecast area as of late
evening...but more consolidated area of convection over central
Illinois associated with a weak upper wave which will drift east
across the region through midday Tuesday. Anticipate an increase in
convective coverage at all terminals after 07-08Z continuing through
the morning as the wave tracks through the Ohio Valley. With higher
confidence in impacts from rain and storms...will continue to carry
prevailing precipitation mention with a VCTS through mid morning.
Model soundings and RH progs are suggestive of renewed development
of lower stratus during the early morning hours as well...mixing out
by midday in most areas.

The upper wave will shift east of the terminals Tuesday afternoon
and while the airmass will remain unstable over the region...
convection should become increasingly isolated as deeper moisture
and forcing aloft move away to the east. Clouds will decrease
Tuesday evening as weak ridging builds in.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Ryan/JP



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