Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 150649
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
149 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

The freezing rain threat will end late morning Monday with much
warmer temperatures on their way next week. However, it will be a
rainy period through Tuesday night as a southwestern and trailing
northern Pacific upper system move through the area. A brief dry
period will follow before another system brings rain chances to the
area by next Friday.

Temperatures may reach the 60s next weekend over some locales.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 704 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

With all precipitation out of the area and soundings/hi res models
showing decreased threat for development of freezing drizzle,
have dropped the freezing rain advisory that was still across the
northern half of the area. Still expect there will be slick spots
on untreated roads as moisture from previous round of
precipitation freezes/refreezes, so issued an SPS detailing this
impact.

Dry air is building south into the area and starting to
scatter lower clouds across the northern counties. Some
uncertainty regarding fog threat for overnight with dry air coming
in but low level moisture only slowly retreating to the south.
Will continue to leave out for now as it currently looks like dry
air will win out but will monitor. Low temperatures in the mid 20s
north to low 30s south still look on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/
Issued at 243 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Models are in good agreement that moisture will increase again from
southwest to northeast on Sunday as a southern front sets to return
as a warm front and upper waves ejected from a northern Mexican
upper low move across the Ohio Valley. Progged surface temperatures
and lingering warm layer aloft suggest brief freezing rain to start
the day near and west of a Lafayette to Indianapolis to Seymour
line. However, by noon, temperatures will above freezing. Blend
chance pops look good.

A wintry mix of mainly rain and freezing rain Sunday night into
Monday morning is possible Bloomington and north. Otherwise it will
be all rain and become widespread late Monday through Tuesday
morning as the upper low opens up and lifts northeast over the area
and a northern Pacific system follows.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 149 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

ECMWF suggests a departing short wave will have exited the area on
Wednesday...allowing strong Ridging over the Mississippi Valley
to develop and build across the Ohio Valley. By Thursday...strong
ridging aloft will be in place across the region...allowing dry
weather to persist.

ECMWF then suggests a negatively tilted short wave moving through
the Ohio Valley on Friday. A strong warm front also surges
northward across Indiana as southerly flow establishes itself
through the region. Superblend suggests dry to no pops with these
features which appears curious to this forecaster. Thus confidence
in the Friday and Friday night Period precip wise is low.

Southerly flow and ridging looks to be in place on
Saturday...allowing above normal temps which are expected through
much of this period.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 1506000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1143 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

IFR to MVFR cloud decks will hang around through the night, and
MVFR visibilities will be in place as well. Should see improvement
during the morning to VFR, and then could see a drop back to MVFR
as chances for showers move in from the southwest in the
afternoon. Winds will be light through the period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...CP



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