Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 280213

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The Aviation Section has been updated below.


Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High pressure will strengthen over the area, resulting in dry
conditions into the weekend. However, a frontal boundary will
trigger some scattered rain showers across the northern counties
on Saturday night and Sunday. Southerly flow on back side of the
high pressure will result in above normal temperatures for the
weekend and most of the week. After dry conditions early next
week, rain chances will return with a cold front on Wednesday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Held clouds around longer tonight. Although, the stratus was
breaking up over our southwestern and west central counties, plenty
of thick ac and cirrus was streaming in fast northwest flow aloft
ahead of the central states ridge. With delayed and not full
clearing, held temperatures up to overnight lows in the lower to mid
40s per blend of near term models.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure currently continues to track farther east into New
England while high pressure pushes into Illinois. Time cross
sections show low level moisture through this evening, but drier
air is expected to filter into the area overnight. As a result,
partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail tonight. And, decent
radiational cooling late tonight should give temperatures enough
time to dip into the upper 30s/low 40s.


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Sunday/...

Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The main focus of the short term period will be the above normal
temperatures and rain chances on Saturday night/Sunday across the
northern counties.

Southerly flow on the back side of high pressure will result in
above normal temperatures through the duration of the short term
period. Highs will climb into the upper 70s/low 80s by Saturday
and remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s for Sunday. Meanwhile,
overnight lows will generally be in the 50s, which was captured
best with a model blend.

The majority of the period will be dry. However, a surface frontal
system will be responsible for rain showers on Saturday night and
Sunday across the northern portions of the forecast area.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Mainly Dry weather is expected this period.

ECMWF suggests High pressure and ridging in place aloft through
the period...steering any forcing dynamics well north of
Indiana...across Ontario and the Great Lakes. A couple warm days
look in store as we start November as deep low pressure system
looks to move through the Great lakes on Tuesday. Strong and warm
SW flow looks to spill into the Ohio Valley with above normal
temperatures. An Associated cold front looks to pass through the
area on moisture and forcing will be
long gone...much farther northeast. Trended toward a dry forecast
at most spots after coordination with LMK and PAH.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 280300z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

MVFR ceilings at the sites should rise to VFR over the next few
hours as high pressure continues to build over Indiana, with KIND
and KHUF already up to VFR conditions. With light winds and
subsidence from high pressure could see some MVFR fog form late
tonight after around 6z or so at the outlying sites and last through
daybreak. Don`t expect visibilities to get worse than MVFR with high
clouds continuing over the area.




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