Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261823
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
223 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

High pressure will build into the area for tonight into Tuesday.
An upper level low may affect the area later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Cloud cover should continue to thin out during the rest of the
afternoon as drier air moves into the area, leaving skies mainly
clear by tonight as surface ridging noses into the Ohio Valley.

Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS guidance lows
tonight, so any adjustments will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Model data suggest upper low currently north of Lake Superior
will drift south into the local area by Wednesday, and eventually
into the Appalachian Mountain region by Thursday.

Appears the core of the mid level cold pocket will be passing
over the local area on Wednesday, with mid level temperatures
moderating a bit after that as the upper low drifts east. At this
point, the highest precipitation potential looks to be on
Wednesday as the upper level cold pocket drifts overhead, with
precipitation chances diminishing after that.

Will go with chance PoPs for showers most areas on Wednesday, and
a bit lower PoPs Wednesday night into Thursday. The Pops
Wednesday night and Thursday will be more focused on the eastern
zones, which will be closest to mid level cold pocket.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for
Wednesday may be on the cool side. Will nudge the guidance
numbers up a category in that period. Remainder of the periods
look OK for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Latest model runs are differing substantially from previous runs
in regard to an upper low during the extended period. Earlier runs
were predicting a dry forecast for the majority of the long term
period, but now models have that upper low meandering over
portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region. There is quite
a bit of difference between GFS and Euro in regard to track though
with the Euro taking more of an eastward propagation. As a
result, will not go any higher than the initialization`s slight
chance pops at any time from Thursday through Saturday. As far as
temps, the cooler pattern is still expected with highs generally
in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 261800z tafs/...

Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR Conditions are expected.

Cold front has moved east of the Taf Sites and an associated band
of clouds as seen on Satellite continue to stream east quickly.
Extensive clear skies and subsidence found upstream associated
with the strong high pressure system over the western plains.

Fog not expected overnight due to large dew point depressions.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP


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