Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

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