Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 232014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
414 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A couple of low pressure systems will bring chances for rain mid
week and again for next weekend. Otherwise dry and seasonable
temperatures can be expected.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A cold front will move through the area this evening. The atmosphere
is quite dry, so it should pass through with only a few clouds.
Winds will remain gusty through the remainder of the afternoon as
stronger winds aloft mix down.

Overnight, some lower level moisture will try and work its way into
the area, but most of it will be shunted off to the north and east.
Will allow skies to become partly cloudy late far north, otherwise
mostly clear should cover it.

A model blend of temperatures looks good for low temperatures.


.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

High pressure will build in and keep much of the short term period
dry. A low pressure system will move into the area on Wednesday. The
atmosphere will take a while to moisten up, especially at low levels
(with southeast winds at the surface), so feel any rain will hold
off until Wednesday afternoon. Thus removed SuperBlend`s PoPs from
Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will remain seasonable or even a bit cool at times
through the period.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The slow but steady transition to the cool season will continue
through the extended...with quiet weather bookended by chances
for rain at the beginning and near the end of the forecast period
as systems continue to track across the northern half of the

Surface wave and an associated cold front will track through the
region Wednesday night and Thursday with widespread rain and
a few thunderstorms impacting central Indiana. This system will
quickly translate off the east through the day Thursday with
surface high pressure and ridging aloft providing dry cool weather
for the region to end the week.

Model differences begin to show for the weekend with respect to
handling of the next upper wave and associated low pressure and
front at the surface set to track through the Great Lakes. Op GFS
remains on the fast side of the guidance window and considering
the lack of agreement with respect to the individual GFS ensemble may be exhibiting its known progressive bias in the
mid to long range. Global guidance is also slower with the arrival
of the weekend system. Will continue with a blended forecast
until greater consensus is met...carrying low pops late Friday
night followed by better precip chances for Saturday into Saturday

Temps should generally persist within a few degrees of normal
throughout the extended...with highs in the upper 50s and lower
60s Thursday followed by lower to mid 60s for the rest of the
period. Lows will largely remain in the 40s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/2100Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 412 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

No changes.

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Gusty southwest winds will be the primary issue for aviators this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching low pressure and associated cold front. Expect peak
gusts up to 25kts through early evening with winds diminishing
with the loss of heating and the passage of the cold front.
Virtually no moisture accompanying the boundary with a wind shift
to northwest being the only impact from the passage of the front.

Winds will veer to northerly Monday morning as high pressure
reestablishes over the region. Other than a few cirrus...expect
mainly clear skies.





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