Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220604
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING CLOUDS TO MOVE
OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LINGERING LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROBABLY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARM IN PLACES DUE TO THE CLOUDS.
THIS TREND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES START DROPPING
MORE RAPIDLY WHEN SKIES CLEAR. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS
AS IS FOR THIS REASON.

ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO FINE TUNE THE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THE
WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BULK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA CLOSER TO WHERE
BETTER FORCING IS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA BEFORE 00Z. FOR NOW WITH DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE
BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION...BUT THIS EASES OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE...A
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SIMILAR SO USED A BLEND.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD ON MONDAY GIVEN EXPECTED SUNSHINE. WENT
CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...STUCK CLOSE TO MAV MOS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...MAV MOS LOOKS TO WARM THINGS UP TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. CUT MAV BY A FEW
DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A MODEL BLEND LOOKS OK FOR
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SUGGESTION THAT A WAVE COULD LIFT FROM THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS HAVE NUDGED THIS FEATURE TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN LESS LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
WAS ABLE TO GO DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST SLIGHT WARMING DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/09Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ANTICIPATE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAFS AT 09Z AS WX IS NIL.

ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CU SHOULD BE SETTLING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND ALSO
DISSIPATING IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR
SKIES. MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES AFTER SUNRISE AND TONIGHT AS WELL. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
PROBLEM AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH.

NORTH WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...MK/NIELD

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