Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 230900
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
400 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Dry weather will continue across central Indiana into early next
week, before a front brings a return of rain chances Tuesday night
and Wednesday. For the most part, temperatures will be near normal
to above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Thankfully the models are in pretty decent agreement for the
forecast today.

Mid clouds will move across the area this morning as an upper trough
moves through, providing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Clouds will
decrease this afternoon as the system exits.

With warm advection today, temperatures will be warmer than
Wednesday`s. Went a little above the model blend given the warm
advection and sunshine this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/
Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

High pressure will build in tonight and Friday, continuing the dry
conditions.

Another cold front and upper trough will move in for Friday night.
The best forcing will remain north of the area closer to an upper
jet. Moisture is limited as well, so odds favor a dry forecast,
which is what the blend gives. Hopefully the dry forecast for Friday
night won`t be a turkey, as some GFS ensemble members do show some
light rain Friday night. Will have to keep an eye on it.

High pressure will then build in again and bring dry weather
Saturday and Saturday night.

The blend looks reasonable for temperatures given expected
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 328 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Most of the extended period is still expected to be dry with a
large area of high pressure at the surface over the eastern U.S.
followed by ridging to the west. The only exceptions will be on
Tuesday and Wednesday nights. The GFS and Euro are showing some
inconsistensies though for Tuesday with the GFS being the slightly
wetter of the two as a surface frontal system moves through. Would
not rule out a few rain showers ahead of a warm front on Tuesday
afternoon, but the best chances will be Tuesday night when the
associated cold front moves through central Indiana. Wednesday
night, additional rain showers will be possible again with a
secondary cold front. As colder air filters in behind the front
late Wednesday night, a few snow showers could also mix in.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/0900Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 328 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Update...
No changes.

Previous Discussion...
Layered cloud above 050 and unrestricted visibility expected at
the terminals through midday Thursday. Light surface winds
overnight will become 200-220 degrees at 7-11 kts by midday
Thursday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.