Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 191923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
223 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated


Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

A weakening cold front is expected to move through the area Monday
night into Tuesday morning. A stronger low pressure system may
affect the area towards the later parts of the week.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Dry weather expected tonight as surface ridge drifts off to the
east. Synoptic pattern favorable for the development of low
clouds/fog again later tonight, given a light gradient and the
potential for residual moisture to get trapped under a shallow low
level inversion.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight look
reasonable for the most part, so any adjustments will be minor.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Lingering fog early Monday morning should burn off by the mid to
late morning hours Monday.

Model data suggest a short wave trough will push through the Great
Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday, dragging a weakening cold
front through the local area. Appears there may a decent amount of
lift, albeit rather narrow, for a precipitation threat late Monday
night into Tuesday morning over the northern zones. Will go with
PoPs starting Monday night and continuing through early Tuesday
evening to cover the passage of this system, with the highest PoPs
coinciding with the best lift.

Some weak elevated instability may be associated with this feature
as well, but convective parameters not very impressive at this

Will go with a dry forecast by Wednesday as upper flow becomes zonal
in the wake of short wave trough, and weak surface high pressure
develops over the area.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Monday
may be on the cool side. Will nudge the guidance highs up a bit in
that period. The remainder of the periods look OK for now.


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Through Saturday/
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

After a dry and warm Wednesday, a frontal system will bring more
rain chances Wednesday night through Friday night.

On Friday afternoon, a potent cold front will move through with a
sub 1000mb low off to our northwest. 850mb winds could be around
50kt. This setup could allow for some thunderstorms with the front.

Seasonable air will then move in behind the cold front for next
weekend. Although it will be seasonable, it will feel colder thanks
to all of the warm weather preceding it.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 191800Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1133 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Visible satellite loop indicates thin spots developing within the
low cloud deck, so expecting lingering IFR/patchy LIFR conditions
to lift and scatter out over the next couple of hours.

May see redevelopment of IFR ceilings/visibilities after 200300Z
tonight given limited mixing and residual moisture trapped under a
shallow low level inversion.

Surface winds generally at or below 6 kts through this evening.




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