Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301351
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
951 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Warm...dry and less humid conditions are expected through Tuesday as
a surface high pressure ridge influences the weather across the
region. Storm chances will increase for Wednesday and Thursday as a
cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. The expansion of an upper
level trough into the Great Lakes will bring cooler weather for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 947 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Current forecast on track for a beautiful Memorial Day. Clear
skies this morning will give way to high temperatures in the mid
80s with a bit of diurnal cu popping early this afternoon and
light northwest winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast challenges focus on precip chances Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The surface ridge will remain the dominant influence on weather
across the area through Tuesday night as it lingers across the Ohio
Valley. A warm front will setup across the northern part of the
forecast area by Tuesday morning as low pressure tracks into the
upper Midwest. Despite the presence of the boundary in the
area...limited forcing aloft...a mid level capping inversion and an
abundance of dry air will likely suppress any convection from
developing through Tuesday evening with only a small threat for a
shower or storm overnight Tuesday primarily confined to the northern
Wabash Valley.

A sharp upper low will track from the northern Plains early
Wednesday into the Great Lakes by Thursday morning. As heights
buckle with the approach of the upper low...a cold front will slowly
sag into the forecast area Wednesday night. The drier airmass will
slowly erode as moisture advects into the region...with scattered
convection developing across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon
then overspreading the area Wednesday night as the capping inversion
erodes.

Temps...Warm weather will continue through the short term. Trended
highs towards the warm end of guidance both Tuesday and Wednesday
with mid to upper 80s common across the forecast area. The
combination of light flow and the drier airmass should maintain a
broader range to overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night ranging
from the upper 50s in the normal cool spots to the mid 60s in the
urban areas. Most areas will remain in the mid 60s Wednesday night
as scattered storms accompany the frontal boundary tracking through
the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...

Issued at 239 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

The upper flow will become northwest across the area during the Long
Term, and this will allow a couple of cold fronts to move through.
The result will be chances for rain Thursday and across parts of the
area during the weekend.

There is some uncertainty on how much moisture the front during the
weekend will have, so confidence is low on the rain chances then.

Temperatures will be near average.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 301200Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period.

High pressure will keep dry conditions with only scattered low level
clouds and scattered to broken high clouds.

Winds will remain less than 10kt.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50



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