Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 021425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TODAY...ENDING BY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT HUF AND BMG...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTIVITY
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS IND. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KT...AND STAY PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOME MORE ENE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT MAINLY HUF AND BMG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

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