Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010543
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
143 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A strong area of broad low pressure will push across Indiana
today and tonight. This will continue to produce sporadic showers
from time to time today and tonight across the state.

The Low is expected to push to the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday.
Thus will end the weekend on a dry note with near normal
temperatures. High pressure will then build across the region to
start the next work week with dry and seasonable weather.

Shower chances will return by Wednesday Night as a frontal system
arrives from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Issued at 143 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Surface analysis early this morning shows that low pressure was
found across over the Lower Wabash Valley. IR images show
plentiful cloud cover across the state...with the well defined
upper low circulation in place aloft. Radar was quieter...showing
widely scattered precipitation across the forecast area.

GFS and NAM continue to suggest that the upper low will continue
to slowly drift north across Indiana today and tonight...keeping
broad cyclonic flow in place across Central Indiana. Forecast
soundings and time height sections continue to show saturation
with the lower and middle level of the column. Soundings suggest
convective temperatures within the mid 60s...which should be
reached. Thus with relatively weak forcing...but some instability
along with the cyclonic flow in place will once again expected
the occasional showers or perhaps a thunderstorm today and
tonight. Given the heating that will be needed to produce a
thunderstorm...will try to keep the thunder mention contained to
the today period. As for temps...will stick at or below a blend
for highs given the expected clouds and rain....and trend warmer
than mavmos on lows given the expected clouds.

Furthermore on the tonight period...once heating is
lost...coverage of precip should diminish as the night goes
on...as a similar set up as early this morning remains. Also
overnight...Forecast soundings show subsidence beginning to build
aloft as the upper low pulls northeast and drying is seen within
the column as the flow becomes more northwesterly. Thus will
continue to trend pops lower as the night progresses and dry air
arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Monday Night/...

Issued at 143 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Strong ridging aloft is expected to across the area starting on
Sunday. The upper will will have mostly departed to the
northeast...however broad cyclonic flow will remain as the ridging
to west builds across the Ohio valley. Forecast soundings on
Sunday fail to show much in the way of instability...along with a
weak inversion in place within the middle levels that should
inhibit any convection. Thus will try to trend toward dry forecast
with partly cloudy skies.

Little change is seen within the forecast soundings on Sunday
night through Monday night. High pressure will continue to be
building across the area...providing subsidence. Convective
temperatures should be able to be reached...resulting on just some
sct CU. Overall...will aim for just partly cloudy skies and a
blend on temps will work well.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Sunday will be a transitional day as the upper low over the
eastern great lakes begins to move away from our region and
high pressure builds in from the plains.  Models indicate
there could be a slight chance of showers most areas Sunday
with the possible exception of the far west.

Sunday night through Wednesday will be dry with a high
pressure ridge across our region.  A cold front which will
be across the plains Wednesday will move to the Mississippi
river Thursday morning and across Indiana Thursday night.
The latest GFS...Canadian and European models indicate a
few showers may reach western Indiana late Wednesday night
and then scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday
and early Thursday night.  This front may bring a few showers
to eastern sections early Friday with dry and cooler weather
after that.

Concerning temperatures...models have trended a little cooler Sunday
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.   Highs will be mostly in
the 70s Monday through Thursday...but with some areas reaching
the lower 80s Wednesday.  Then highs Friday will be in the upper
60s to lower 70s.   Lows will be in the lower 50s Monday morning
warming to near 60 Wednesday and then cooling some days 6 and 7.
Raised high tempertures slightly Monday through Wednesday with
lots of sun and warm advection.  Otherwise...stayed close to
Super Blend temperatures most other periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 01/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1233 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

VFR conditions will again deteriorate to MVFR or worse overnight.

Upper low continues to spin over the region, bringing showers and
widespread cloud cover. Expect ceilings to deteriorate again
tonight, with fluctuations likely.

Winds will be less than 10kt through the period, variable at times.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD



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