Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1126 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS OUR WAY.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AND A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN TO OUR SYSTEM BY TUESDAY.  THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  FINALLY THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS COLDER
AIR MOVES BACK INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS STILL SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL CARRY
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRI 04Z...AND FLURRIES THROUGH FRI
06Z. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES...TO UPPER TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THESE WILL
PLUMMET FURTHER AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND SNOW ENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS.  THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE
TONIGHT AND CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.  I WAS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH MY TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY.  NERVELESS IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOWEST WINDS CHILLS NEAR
15 BELOW.  THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF OUR REGION.

FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. EVEN THOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE COLD...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 4 BELOW NORTHEAST TO 6 ABOVE SOUTH AND
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ALL
MODELS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE ALL SNOW OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY START OUT AS SNOW AND THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY.  THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THIS CHANGE OVER.   WENT CLOSE TO HPC SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH
INDICATED 5 TO 7 INCHES FAR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO SOUTH.
THE NAM INDICATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS WAS ALMOST 12 HOURS LATER IN ENDING
PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH A BLEND WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MOST
AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A LITTLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY CUT
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1119 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. *POSSIBLY* SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR IN SOME OF
THE WIDELY SCATTERED FLURRIES BUT NOT ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO THE LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT WILL REACH KLAF EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. MOST
CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP AND SCATTER LATER THIS MORNING. VFR FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT (FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.)

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>044-048-049-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SMF

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