Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 121940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE DRY WEATHER WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AT THAT
POINT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST AROUND
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AS AN AREA OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  MEANWHILE
A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT
UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IS STILL POSSIBLE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS THERE LATE TODAY.

REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC IS SHOWING ENHANCEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT SHOULD
START AFFECTING CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND DAYBREAK. AS DYNAMICS
WEAKEN THIS EVENING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE FUELED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY LAKE EFFECTS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UP TO 1 INCH.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE/CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -15 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 323 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA BY THAT
POINT...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM...PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SNOW SHOWERS STARTING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUN 12Z...THEN EXPANDING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE
DURING THE SUN 18Z-MON 00Z TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.
AFTER A FRIGID DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BITTER COLD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONE WAVE IS EXITING THE AREA AS THE LONG TERM STARTS BUT IT IS
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH
VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLES AND CIPS ANALOGS NOT KEYING IN ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT ACCEPTED THE INITIALIZATION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THAT TIME FRAME. COULD SEE ENOUGH WARMING FOR TUESDAY TO BE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SWITCHING BACK OVER TO SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL RAMP UP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 121800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE SITES BUT HIGH RES GUIDANCE
DOESN/T SHOW THESE PRODUCING MUCH OF ANYTHING IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SO JUST INCLUDING AS A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD PICK UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO 20-30
KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT BUT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 10-13Z
SATURDAY. MOS AND SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW CEILINGS IMPROVING TO
VFR TONIGHT BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS INDICATE
NO RESTRICTIONS SO WENT WITH A SCT025 DECK BELOW SOME CIRRUS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP


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