Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 261808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016


The Long Term section has been updated below.


Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Off and on storm chances will continue until mid way through the
weekend when upper ridging reestablishes over the area. Near
normal temperatures should be the rule through most of the period,
with Wednesday looking like the warmest day with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Some adjustment to pops required per radar trends, but otherwise
forecast in good shape. Previous dicussion follows.

Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Could see some patchy fog near daybreak with dew point
depressions of only a degree or two in several spots across the
forecast area, but that should burn off or mix out quickly after
sunrise. Hi res guidance shows a line of showers and thunderstorms
forming along a boundary currently stalled out across southern
central Indiana by if not before mid morning and hanging around
into the afternoon/evening hours before moving off to the
southeast. Think coverage could be somewhat overdone given several
runs have been showing more currently than what is seen on radar
over Illinois and moisture looks overdone. However enough
potential there to bring in high chance pops along the southern
border this afternoon and ramp up to it this morning. For
temperatures most solutions are in the mid 80s, and think this is
reasonable given the potential for cloud cover throughout much of
the day and some rain.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Tonight will see the boundary shift south and the storm chances
should go with it. Will leave a slight chance in the south as a
wave moves along the front. On Wednesday increased to a chance
along the far southern border as the front could start to move
back north. For Wednesday night through Thursday night, a
stronger upper wave should combine with the front to produce some
solid thunderstorm chances Wednesday night and with likely PoPs in
the south and southeast Thursday. Chances continue to Thursday
night and beyond.

For temperatures think mainly mid 80s are a good bet given the
potential for thunderstorms and cloud cover through most of the
period and cooler 850 mb temperatures. Possible exception to this
is on Wednesday when PoPs are confined to the southern counties
and thus could see upper 80s especially north where ample sunshine
is possible.

At this point looks like axis of heavy rainfall will set up south
of the area, but will need to monitor with upcoming forecasts
repeat development along the boundary if it becomes stationary
rather than meandering.


.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Pops will be the main focus for the long term.

Long term will start off as a frontal system slides southeast
overthe area Friday night before stalling over the Ohio Valley late
inthe weekend and early next week. Meanwhile, broad upper trough
willprogress slowly from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley
thisweekend and east of the area early next week. With plenty
ofmoisture in place and a front nearby, feel regional blend
chancepops look good through most of the period. Sunday night may be

Low level thermal progs, ridge moving in early next week andexpected
cloud cover suggest temperatures will start off normal orslightly
below and then warm to normal and slightly above by earlynext week.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 261800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Would not rule out a few pop up thunderstorms at HUF and BMG this
afternoon, however chances too low to mention. VFR conditions with
convective ceilings around 4k feet expected this afternoon. The
exception will be overnight as some MVFR or worse fog is possible
09z-13z at the smaller airports.

Winds will be east less than 10 knots today and then light to calm


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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