Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220812
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
410 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

High pressure is expected for the next few days. A frontal system is
expected to move through the area over the weekend. Another low
pressure system may affect the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Dry weather expected today as a large area of surface high pressure
drifts through the Great Lakes. Upstream satellite suggests there
will be some passing high clouds from time to time, but probably
will be thin enough as not to affect sky perception that much.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look good,
so little if any adjustments planned.

Plan on keeping the Freeze headlines as is.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Model data suggest upper heights will rise over the area during the
next couple of days as mid level ridging moves east from the Plains.

Models still show some weak signals for a precipitation threat on
Thursday and Thursday night within a warm advection zone, but given
the presence of the upper ridge, don`t think the threat is all that
high at this time. Will continue with chance PoPs for showers on
Thursday and Thursday night.

An upper low is progged to move into the southern Plains by Friday
night. Will keep some chance PoPs in the forecast for late Friday
night in association with this upper low, but it appears the better
precipitation threat will be after this forecast period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs on Thursday
are probably too warm, and the guidance highs on Friday look too
cool. Will make adjustments on the order of about 3-5 degrees in
both cases. Guidance lows look OK for now.

Less confident on widespread freezing conditions in the far south
tonight given increasing cloud cover. After collaborating with
surrounding offices, will hold off on another Freeze Warning at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

At least two low pressure systems in quick succession appear set
to impact the area during the long term portion of the forecast
period.

These will require fairly high pops, especially over the weekend
and again early in the next work week. Thunder will be a threat at
least with the first one and perhaps with the second, although
this is more iffy. A widespread severe threat does not look
particularly likely for the moment.

Temperatures will be fairly warm throughout, with highs in the 60s
most days.

Blended initialization handled things relatively well with few
major changes required.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Mid and high clouds are diminishing with the expansion of high
pressure from the north. The high will serve as the dominant
influence through early Thursday as it drifts into the eastern Great
Lakes. With deep subsidence noted on RH progs and model soundings...
expect mostly clear skies through Wednesday evening with an increase
in mid level clouds in return flow late in the period early
Thursday. Winds will remain at 10 to 15kts early this morning from
the north...veering to an easterly direction by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...Ryan/JAS



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