Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300448
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG AT LAF OVERNIGHT AS THEY HAVE SEEN OVER AN INCH OF
RAIN LAST EVENING AND THERE ARE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THERE ALONG WITH
SATURATION.

OTHERWISE...REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD EXPECTED BY MIDDAY AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE
OTHER OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...NAMELY KBMG AND
KHUF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINANT THE PERIOD. W/NW WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND 8 KT OR LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/MK

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