Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 211820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.