Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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