Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260223
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1022 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A cold front will track across Central Indiana tonight with a few
thunderstorms possible. Dry conditions will prevail late tonight
and across most of the area tomorrow. Scattered storms will
redevelop by Friday night and Saturday as a warm front pushes
into Central Indiana. This frontal system will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast into next week as it becomes nearly
stationary over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Cold front is currently located over the northern part of the
forecast area...with scattered storms moving across northern
Indiana and back over western Illinois. 02Z temps remained in the
70s to low 80s with muggy conditions.

Convection has just not developed as anticipated so far through
the evening. While instability is plentiful...presence of a mid
level cap and generally poor lapse rates have kept a lid on storms
developing over the forecast area. An isolated thunderstorm moved
out of eastern Illinois but fell apart rapidly as it crossed the
Wabash River near KHUF earlier this evening. While the presence of
the warm unstable airmass and the sagging frontal boundary warrant
at least maintaining an isolated storm threat for the next few
hours...am largely unimpressed with convective potential for the
rest of the night.

Likely to see patchy fog develop after 06Z and persist through
daybreak with stagnant near surface flow. As the front slips into
southern Indiana by daybreak...slightly drier air will slowly
advect into central Indiana from the north.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Friday, most of the forecast area can expect dry conditions, but
there is a slight chance that some showers and thunderstorms could
sneak into the extreme southwestern counties as a warm front
approaches from the Missouri Valley. This front will create a warm
sector for showers and thunderstorms to periodically form in
through the end of the short term period as high temperatures soar
into the mid and upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday with dewpoints
returning into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

During the coming week, the area will be under the waning influence
of a weak upper level ridge, with the area on the periphery as flow
gradually becomes quasizonal. This will place the area under a
fairly typical warm, moist August airmass with multiple
opportunities for thunderstorms. However, these storms will be
either significantly diurnally driven or subject to small scale
perturbations which the models essentially cannot handle or predict
on these time scales. Thus, will stick near blended initialization
throughout the period. Temperatures through the period will be near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 260300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1022 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Convection associated with a vorticity center moving east through
Illinois has been slow to develop so far. As a result, there is
low confidence in convective potential at the terminals later
tonight as this vorticity center begins moving into the local
area towards 260000Z-260100Z. Will continue to monitor convective
trends with this feature up til issuance time, and decide at that
time how to handle things in the forecast.

Short term model guidances suggests this feature will move east
of the terminal around 260700Z-260800Z, so convective potential
should diminish by that time.

Otherwise, crossover temperatures are within reach late tonight,
so fog is possible late tonight. The presence of the upper air
disturbance may help keep the air mass mixed up enough to prevent
widespread or prolonged IFR visibility restrictions.

Surface winds 240-280 degrees at 7-10 kts early this evening
will become light by late tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TDUD/RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS



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