Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A WAVY SQUALL LINE FROM AROUND
PORT HURON TO MILWAUKEE. THIS LINE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS FROM 23Z HAD THE LINE
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS. THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE IF THE LINE EITHER FILLS
IN FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF IT DOES...IT SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR MIDNIGHT AND TO
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE METRO AFTER 1 AM. IN ADDITION...OTHER
STORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN IOWA COULD MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO ADDED SMALL POPS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THIS ALSO MATCHES UP GOOD WITH ADJACENT OFFICES PER COORDINATION.
DID NOT WANT TO GO ABOVE 40 PERCENT ON POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LINE WILL FILL IN FURTHER WEST IS NOT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND WHERE SPC
HAS A SLIVER OF THESE COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

ONLY INCREASED POPS ACROSS THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA BASED ON WETTER
SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE GFS. DID NOT INCREASE
CHANCES ELSEWHERE AS THE COLUMN STILL LOOKS VERY DRY PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL
THINKING THAT GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO BULLISH WITH PRECIP FOR THE
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
ROUGHLY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY MONDAY AND STILL
TECHNICALLY BE MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. LEFT IN SOME WEAK/SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR POPS DURING THIS TIME. THEN THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
AND MEANDERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD.

A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...WHICH DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SO WENT
DRY FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BY MID WEEK...SCATTERED TO EVEN LIKELY POPS
(LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY) ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...SO
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MOS BLEND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS TIME PROGRESSES...THE MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY. THE GFS
HAS A SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS INFLUENCING THE RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A DRIER FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE EURO HOLDS STEADY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTING IN A
WETTER SOLUTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
TO THE NORTH...THEN DRYING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION FAVORS THIS TREND.

WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE
NORTHWEST IS GOING TO FILL IN AND HOW WELL IT WILL BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THIS TIME THINK GOING FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS UNCERTAINTY AND WILL LEAVE AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR TO START AT THE SITES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT MOST MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LINE SO
NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH BEST FORCING MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF INDIANA WILL INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION AT
KLAF AND KIND. MAY INCLUDE VCTS AT KHUF AND/OR KBMG BUT MAY ALSO
LEAVE OUT OF THERE WITH MORE OF A CAP IN PLACE OVER THOSE SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 8-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...BUT GUSTS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SPORADIC ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
AT THIS TIME. FOR MONDAY SOME LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT
MENTION AT ANY OF THE SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...SMF/MK
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MMB/PUMA
AVIATION...CP



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