Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 272009
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT
THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS WIND CHILLS ARE NO LONGER REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.  RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CU MAY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHS FROM MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20
SOUTH WHICH IS CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN
MOST MOS GUIDANCE.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.  THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE AT LEAST THROUGH MID DAY AND THEN A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  REST OF NEAR TERM SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST
DURING THIS PERIOD IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOESN/T LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT.

WILL BRING IN HIGH POPS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BASED ON
ABOVE REASONING...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS MAIN LIFT
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW OVER
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE OF A MIX
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF...WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM
AIR IS POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT THESE SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK A LITTLE COLD. WILL BUMP UP THE
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY LOOK TOO WARM CONSIDERING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...SO WILL
NUDGE THOSE NUMBERS DOWN ABOUT A CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL ALLOW
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS STILL ARE BRINGING IN WARM AIR ALOFT
QUICKLY...SO MIXED PRECIPITATION TO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE COLD TUESDAY MORNING SO KEPT
THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION THEN. AS WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE FINALLY
ARRIVES RAIN WILL FALL LATER TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. COULD BE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN
THE FROZEN GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

MODELS DIFFER IN SPEED OF COLD AIR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
FEEL IT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS WARRANTED AS PRECIPITATION TYPE
MOST AREAS. AS A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTHWEST AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 307 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT.

SCATTERED /TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY BROKEN AT KIND/KBMG/ CU FIELD WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN
10KT SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.