Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
633 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through the early parts of
next week. A frontal system may affect the area towards the middle
of next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Some fog starting to show up on recent observations. Expecting some
patchy fog through the mid morning hours.

Otherwise, not seeing anything in the model data to serve as a
precipitation trigger, so will continue with a dry forecast under
strong ridging aloft.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look
reasonable, so little if any adjustments planned.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Model data suggest only a slight progression to the long wave
features expected during this period, with the local area remaining
under the influence of upper ridging. Operational and ensemble data
suggest little threat for precipitation, so will keep the forecast
dry through the period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance in the later periods continues to look too cool. Will bump
up the guidance temperatures about 2-5 degrees each period.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Good confidence on at least mostly dry and warm weather through
Tuesday under the influence of a persistent ridge. After that, good
confidence a cold front and cyclonic flow will bring much cooler
weather to the area with the potential for a few showers at times.

Blend looks to handle temperatures reasonably, but confidence in
timing and coverage of pops is low. The blend just brings sporadic
low pops to small parts of central Indiana Wednesday and Friday.
With confidence low, will just accept the blend regarding pops.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231200Z TAFS/...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Patchy visibility restrictions in fog expected to dissipate by the
mid morning hours.

Otherwise, some diurnal cloud development based around 035
expected during the midday hours today. Light surface winds early
this morning will become 090-120 degrees at 5-8 kts by midday.




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