Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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663
FXUS63 KIND 101722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1222 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

1445Z UPDATE...AS EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY EXITING
CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SKIES ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO BREAK AND SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LATEST IN CURRENT TRENDS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY DIURNAL
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THUS
HAVE TRENDED TO DECREASING VFR STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE QUICK NW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SOME HIGH CI CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE WILL CONTINUE VFR AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JP



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