Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 292100
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY|/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THE MAIN STORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS PUSHED WELL INTO OHIO AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WORKING TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKES WILL REMAIN
ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE
A STRAY SHOWER/FLURRY GIVEN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS IN
THE LOWEST 2 KFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE -10C LAYER SUGGEST
HOLDING WITH MIXED PRECIP (FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) THE WAY TO GO
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO BY 12Z FRI) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. 925-850
MB FLOW VEERING TO NEAR 340 DEGREES IN TANDEM WITH LAKE MI-8H TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE MI TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY REACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION/IMPACT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...DRY/CLOUDY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING GRADUAL BUILD IN OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THIN/BREAK UP STRATOCUMULUS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT
RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY AS WEAK WAA/SW
FLOW COMMENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

ATTENTION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TURNS TO A
NORTHEAST PAC/NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MODELED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
(CLIPPER-ISH) TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...AND ITS AT LEAST PARTIAL LINK
UP WITH THE STJ (PARTIAL EJECTION FROM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
LINGERING NEAR BAJA CA). 12Z ECMWF/GFS ITERATIONS CAME IN A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED/PHASED WITH WIDESPREAD/HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWS
STREAKING ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID TRUST IN
THESE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW GIVEN POOR SAMPLING AND NORMAL MODEL
FLIP FLOPPING/RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN SPLIT FLOW REGIMES.

GOOD LEFT EXIT UPPER JET SUPPORT AND SOME REDUCED STABILITY MODELED
IN MID LEVELS SUGGEST A RATHER HEALTHY/DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED (1000-850 MB
MIXING RATIOS INCREASING TO 3-4 G/KG). DEFORMATION WITH THE UPPER
WAVE WOULD THEN BRING LINGERING SNOWS THROUGH THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER
LAKES. SO...THIS BEARS WATCHING. MAKE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATES AS
THE FCST/AMOUNTS/TRACK WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS IN THE GRIDS). IF
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION VERIFIES A WINTRY MIX WOULD LIKELY SNEAK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMS/RATIOS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS/CHANGES TO THE FCST NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER/POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE WX REGIME LIKELY PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AS STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RETURNS ON KIND RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL AREA
OF MVFR VSBYS ALSO NOTED...THESE ONLY EXTEND BACK TO KCMI SO WILL
COVER WITH 1HR TEMPO TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW
INVERSION AT 3KFT LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
THRU THIS CYCLE. WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
IN OUT PERIOD OF KIND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
NEAR TERM...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM....STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL

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