Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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100
FXUS63 KIND 272300
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
700 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A strong upper ridge of high pressure along the U.S. east coast will
keep us in a summer like pattern until late next week.   A series of
weak upper disturbances will bring chances of thunderstorms through
the weekend as they move across our region.

High pressure will bring dry weather Monday and Tuesday.  An upper low
moving towards the great lakes will bring a chance of thunderstorms
again from the middle of next week on...along with slightly cooler
temperatures late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

water vapor satellite indicated a strong upper ridge along the east coast
while an upper low was over eastern Colorado.  So far it has been pretty
quiet across Indiana today...but an upper disturbance moving into the
lower Mississippi valley was producing scattered to numerous thunderstorms
over lower and middle Mississippi valley this afternoon.

Some of these thunderstorms may spread into western and central parts of our
region by late evening as an upper disturbance moves our way.  Will mention
a chance of thunderstorms from INDY and westward towards midnight and a
slight chance of storms elsewhere as an disturbance passes by.

Given that there is no change of air mass lows tonight should again be in the
lower to middle 60s which is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Forecast focus continue to be rain chances over the weekend as a couple
of weak upper disturbances move from the southern and central plains
towards the great lakes.  Air mass will remain moist and unstable over
the weekend and in addition models move a weak cold front our way Sunday.
Models indicate thunderstorms will be partially diurnal and will mention
chance POPS Saturday afternoon and Sunday and slight chance POPS most other
periods through Sunday evening.

After that will go dry as drier air and weak high pressure builds into our region
late Sunday night and Monday.

There will be a bit more clouds which may limit temperatures Saturday.  But overall
highs will be in the lower to middle 80s all 3 days while lows will be in the
middle to upper 60s over the weekend and lower 60s Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Timing of the thunderstorms will be the main focus next week.

Ensembles suggest a cold front will move across central Indiana
Midweek followed by an upper trough late week. This should result in
more thunderstorm chances by Tuesday night after a dry start to the
week.

Temperatures will start off above normal and then slide back to
seasonable late in the week. This is reflected with the regional
blend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 280000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 653 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Radar mosaic shows scattered thunderstorms over Illinois and
northwest Indiana but only inching towards KLAF and KHUF. With
these in mind will keep a VCTS going at those sites for a couple
of hours. Hi res model output shows this area of storms weakening
and moving northnortheast, with the southern end of the line
becoming an area of showers that could impact the sites around 5
or 6z through around 12z. Included a VCSH for this, but with the
weaker looking echoes and unimpressive moisture in the time
heights will not include any category reductions. Saturday after
around 14-16z forecast soundings show wind gusts of 20-25 kts
developing out of 180-210 and continuing through around sunset.
Could see some scattered thunderstorm development during the
afternoon but too low confidence to include now.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...CP



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