Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 050825 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. &&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK


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