Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 130825
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND STALL
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ON MONDAY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE COLD FRONTS WILL COME WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WILL
ONLY REACH THE 70S...MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER
RATHER THAN MID JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IS STILL
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW
CWA...WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PICK UP IN STRENGTH WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS BUMPED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...FOR BASICALLY AROUND I-70 AND
SOUTHWARD. SEVERE THREATS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FOR
HIGHS 80-86.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY
DURING THE DAY...IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON MONDAY IS LOOKING MORE WET THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A RUDE AWAKENING BEHIND THESE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES AS DRY AND COLDER WEATHER ENGULFS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A GRADUALLY WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A CONTINUED SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

BY NEXT SATURDAY...SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A
PRECIPITATION THREAT BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT FOR A
POP YET...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 130900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

STILL QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE OFF
TO THE NORTHWEST OF KIND...BUT SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WARMING TOPS
RECENTLY...SUGGESTING LINE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION BEFORE REACHING
KIND...BUT THIS MAY TOO FAST GIVEN 30-35 KT 850MB FLOW INTO THE
LINE.

BASED ON THE CURRENTLY MOVEMENT OF THE LINE...IT SHOULD REACH THE
KIND VICINITY AROUND 131100Z. HAVE ALREADY ADJUSTED THE TIMING ON AN
EARLIER UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL SUGGESTS ILLINOIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE
IT TO LAF AROUND 06Z AND IND AND HUF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. STILL
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT THERE AND CURRENTLY QUITE A BIT OF
LIGHTNING. SO...WENT WITH 3 HOUR TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUPS AT
ALL BUT BMG. NOT AS CONFIDENT AT BMG...SO WENT WITH JUST VCTS. AFTER
THAT...BROUGHT VCTS AFTER 15Z AS ONE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

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