Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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061
FXUS63 KIND 150736
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
235 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Long Term Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Quiet weather can be expected through Saturday night as the area
remains on the fringe of surface high pressure. A compact upper
level wave will move through the area on Sunday, bringing mainly
rain showers to the area. Additional weak disturbances early in
the week may bring precipitation chances to the area as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Early This Morning/...

Issued at 1217 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

No significant changes. Patches of lower and middle clouds as well
as some clear areas under light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

The vast majority of the short term will remain dry. A shortwave
will pass through the Great Lakes on Friday, but a lack of
significant moisture and a surface reflection positioned well
north of the area will keep precipitation out of the area. Expect
mainly some cloud cover as a result of the wave.

The next chance for precipitation will come Sunday as a compact
upper level wave moves through the area. While temperatures will
be borderline early Sunday, evaporational cooling may allow
precipitation to initially begin as snow or a rain/snow mix, but
no accumulation is expected. Most precipitation falling Sunday
will fall as rain.

Consensus temperatures generally appeared reasonable throughout,
although the diurnal ranges have been too narrow as of late,
particularly with max temps in the blend being too cool. Made
minor adjustments as a result.

&&


.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Models indicate a zonal upper flow will occur through the middle of
next week...then becoming more amplified late next week as an upper
trough moves into the central U.S. and deepens.  Temperatures will
be quite mild most of this period with a slight cool down towards
Wednesday.

The European and GFS indicate trace precipitation amounts early
Monday as one weak system exits our area.  The GFS indicates another
system may give us low rain chances Monday night as a weak cold
front moves through.  The rest of the long term will be mostly dry
as high pressure moves east across our region. The one exception
will be late Thursday where Superblend indicates slight chance POPS
ahead of the approaching trough.

Stayed close to a MOS Superblend mix on temperatures through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 150600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1100 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

An upper wave and surface trough will pivot east across the
terminals this morning. With limited moisture, should only see an
increase stratocu in the wake of the surface trough that is expected
to pass through 12z-15z. Would not rule out brief MVFR conditions in
the wake of the front, otherwise, good confidence in mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period.

Very light to calm winds overnight will become westerly less than 10
knots as the front moves through and increase to 10 to 15 knots with
gusts to near 25 knots after 16z. Finally, winds will drop off to
less than 10 knots after 23z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK



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