Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 031828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

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