Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260807
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
AND BRINGS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE RUC13
WHICH KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOCU
DECK...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT.
ALSO...ADUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE THE CLOUDS
WILL LAST THE LONGEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

EXPECT CLOUDS TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ERODE SOME BY
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND GENERAL UPPER
PATTERN. THIS IS SLOWER THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION STARING UP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AND USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND POPS/PRECIP TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT IT TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER 0Z
HAVE SNOW AS ONLY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR...WARM GROUND...AND
NOT MUCH FORCING AT LOW LEVELS THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BEST CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER 0Z. ALL MAJOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS KEEP QPF OUT OF NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA SO TRENDED POPS
DOWN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL BE
THROUGH BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER FOR
WEDNESDAY LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT WERE CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FOR BOTH GFS AND ECM WITH MAV
NUMBERS LOOKING TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATE..
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW CONFIDENCE CEILING FORECAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 015 OVER
THE AREA...TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. BACK EDGE OF THESE
CEILINGS HAS BEEN CREEPING EASTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...NOW GETTING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN BORDER. NOT SURE HOW FAR
EAST THE CLEARING LINE WILL GET BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW CAUSES THIS EDGE TO SLOW OR RETREAT BACK WEST.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST KHUF STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERING
OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH KLAF/KBMG POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT AROUND
SUNRISE...AND DOUBTFUL IN THE KIND AREA. FOR NOW WILL SCATTER OUT
KHUF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SITES UNDER MVFR CEILINGS 015-020 THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS THROUGH 261800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

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