Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 040816
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

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