Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
FOUND BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS...LINGERING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING SOME LESS HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE IN THE STATE. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AS A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
CAP. THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY AREA
DOES SEE STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE...BUT WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF
TAFS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT OF MVFR FOG THERE.  DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG THERE.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN
ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH/JAS

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