Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 180009
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS DECK STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST EROSION HAS STOPPED. ALSO GETTING
INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF INTERMOUNTAIN LOW. THUS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY FOR ENTIRE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED THEM
BY A COUPLE DEGREES CLOSE TO RAP/HRRR NUMBERS. WITH CLOUDS DON/T
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MORE THAN THAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SYSTEM
PRODUCING SOME ECHOES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BUT AT THIS POINT
MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 559 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AN INVERSION
DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE THU EVENING AND ALL SITES WILL MAINTAIN AN
MVFR STRATUS DECK. LEANED WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE
ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

W/NW WINDS 10KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

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