Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 050751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION THOUGH SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING.

CURRENT IR SATELLITE HAS CURRENT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
TO THE WEST...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
EAST...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF. SO...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
CONFINED TO JUST THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK...AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY BY MID-MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY.

FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S/LOW
80S ON SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV FOR
SATURDAY AS SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION FILTERS INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
FRONT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA SATURDAY WILL
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND KENTUCKY SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK TO NORTH ACROSS INDIANA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR
REGION.  WILL GO DRY THERE SUNDAY...OTHERWISE WILL MENTION AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST OTHER PERIODS AND LIKELY POPS SOME AREAS
AROUND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.  LOWS WILL BE 50 TO 55 SUNDAY NIGHT AND
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN MOST CASES STAYED
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR OR
WORSE...MAINLY AT IND...LAF AND BMG AS AN UPPER LOW OVERSOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA SLIDES SOUTH TO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE...ENOUGH SO THAT WILL
PULL OUT SHOWERS FROM THE TAFS AFTER 11Z. HUF SHOULD BE DRY ALL
NIGHT...HOWEVER.

WILL MENTION GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME
IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH 14Z OR SO. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS
BREAK UP LATE IN THE DAY.

NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK



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