Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN NO CEILINGS AND P6SM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK UPPER WAVES
INFILTRATE THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT KIND FRIDAY STARTING AROUND 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.




&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD/JK
AVIATION...JK

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