Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241822
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
222 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A weak frontal system is expected to move through the area towards
the middle of week, otherwise high pressure is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Forecast is in good shape. Nudged up temperatures some areas based
on persistence and on where air is coming from today was still hot
yesterday.

Previous discussion follows...

Some patchy fog is expected through the mid morning hours today, as
has been the case over the past several mornings.

Otherwise, strong mid level ridging aloft should result in dry and
warm weather today. Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs
for today look a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance
numbers about a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Model data suggest a static weather pattern will continue during
this period with strong mid level ridging over the Ohio Valley, and
long wave troughing over the Rockies.

Operational and ensemble data suggest little threat for
precipitation during this period, given the strong upper ridge
overhead. A weakening frontal zone may move into the area Tuesday
night, but significant forcing is lacking. Will keep the short term
dry.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance is probably too cool. Will raise the guidance about 3-5
degrees each period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Confidence remains high in the long advertised cooldown arriving
right at the beginning of the extended as the cold front that
tracks across central Indiana on Wednesday moves away. The blocky
pattern aloft over the last week will finally breakdown with a
progressively deeper upper trough becoming the prevalent feature
over the region through the entire period. Long range guidance does
differ with respect to the eventual strength of the upper
trough...but the overall pattern will support an abrupt transition
to much cooler temperatures and predominant N/NE flow. Expect highs
only in the 60s for many locations by next weekend with lows into
the 40s.

Potential exists for a few showers with a secondary cold front
dropping through the area on Friday...but moisture remains paltry
at best. Keeping the forecast dry at this time with low confidence
in any rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 241800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Outside of brief MVFR conditions in fog near sunrise at
all but KIND, VFR conditions expected.

High pressure and a dry atmosphere will keep skies clear for the TAF
period, with perhaps some cumulus developing Monday afternoon. Winds
will remain less than 10kt.

As with the past several nights, expect some brief restrictions in
fog at all but KIND near 12Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...50


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