Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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091
FXUS63 KIND 291635
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1235 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A remnant frontal zone remains across the area, and this combined
with occasional weak upper level disturbances will continue to
produce daily threats for thunderstorms in a warm and moist
airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Patchy fog and low stratus continue to impact parts of the region
this morning...especially to the NW of the Indy metro. Skies were
mostly sunny elsewhere. 1330Z temps were in the 70s.

Another day where multiple factors are supporting a setup for
increasing convection focused on the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low pressure located between KBMI and KLAF will drift
slowly east into north central Indiana through the course of the
day. Diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest from the low
combined with multiple remnant outflow boundaries from convection
Thursday will serve as table setters for scattered storms as
convective temps are reached by mid afternoon in the moist
unstable airmass. An approaching wave aloft over southern Iowa and
northern Missouri will help enhance convective development as
well. Peaking at 40-50 pops for the second half of the afternoon
into early evening looks quite reasonable.

As was the case on Thursday...the primary impact from storms will
be soaking rains and localized flooding from slow moving cells.
The presence of the surface low and arrival of the wave aloft
along with sharper low level lapse rates may help to produce
slightly better organization to storms later this afternoon with
model soundings supporting potential for locally damaging wind
gusts out of stronger cells as cores aloft collapse. In general
though...anticipate subsevere storms moving in a sluggish and
erratic manner.

High temps will warm into the mid 80s in most areas again today.
Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Little will change during the first part of the weekend as the
remnant frontal zone and numerous convective outflow boundaries
will remain in the region. Will require daily low chances for
storms, same as in recent days. Chances will be somewhat lower
late in the weekend as the frontal zone makes some progress
southward and surface high pressure nudges into the area.

Consensus temperatures again appeared reasonable but did make some
minor upward adjustments on highs as models are likely overdoing
extent of precip coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through next Thursday/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Operational models and ensembles suggest an upper ridge will build
over central Indiana during the middle of next week. This will bring
a warm front northeast over the area along with thunderstorm
chances, mainly along and ahead of it through Wednesday. Then,
chances will return late in the week as an eastward moving Canadian
upper low results in increasing and veering upper flow. This should
force a cold front to approach central Indiana from the northwest by
next Friday.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmest days of the long term
with the ridge over the area. Regional blend appears to handle this
well with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 those days and mid and
upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 291800Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Weak surface low over northeast Illinois and an associated surface
trough near the Illinois state line will result in scattered
convection this afternoon and early evening. Confidence remains
low at this time for direct impacts at the terminals. Brief IFR
visibility restrictions in the heavier cells. CB bases around 020.
Convective threat expected to diminish by 300000Z-300100Z as these
features drift off to the east of the terminals.

Otherwise, lingering high moisture content in the air mass
combined with little wind supports fog development and associated
visibility restrictions after dark. Pattern supports fairly
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in low clouds and fog after
300600Z.

Outside of convective areas, surface winds less than 7 kts through
this evening.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS



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