000
FXUS63 KIND 120720
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING WARM AND HUMID AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS WELL AS CREATING CHANCES FOR RAIN. COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS WILL COME WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

WEAK COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS MORNING. NO LIGHTNING YET WITH THIS SYSTEM SO LEFT OUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY
INCREASES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS STILL FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTOR OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT AROUND...BUT AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION CLOUDS/RAIN FROM EARLIER COMPLEX COULD INHIBIT THIS SOME.
WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS AT THIS TIME.

QUITE A SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS FOR TODAY.
THINK A BLEND OF THE LOW MET AND HIGH MAV WORKS WELL FOR HIGHS 83
(NORTH) TO 87-88 (SOUTH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THEREFORE
ACTIVITY COULD BE PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. LEFT IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

BEST CHANCES FOR POPS COME SUNDAY AS A FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...GOOD INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AND A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
ALL AREAS SUNDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

POPS SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
MODELS NOT AS ROBUST WITH SECONDARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND CUT BACK ON
POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR MASS WILL ENGULF THE REGION.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING UPPER TROUGHING ANCHORED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

APPEARS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA DUE TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE SHORT TERM...SO THINK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 120600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE ALOFT MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH
A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO THE TAF SITES SOME TIME BETWEEN SAT 18-21Z.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
INTENSIFY AROUND SUN 03Z AT KLAF AND MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE
OTHER TAF SITES AFTER THAT.  WINDS BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AND THEN
PREDOMINANTLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD DESPITE THE IMPENDING WEATHER AT
THE END.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD

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