Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 060601
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

THE WORK WEEK IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A WARM FRONT OVER OUR STATE.
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY WITH INDIANA INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BE
REPLACED BY A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...THE MAIN
ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES. EVEN THAT SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD.THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE UNDERLYING
DETERMINISTIC FIELDS. THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND MODELS FROM CENTRAL
REGION CAN BE USED WITH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IS POPS. THERE IS A GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A
FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS
DIFFER ENOUGH WE CANT BE CERTAIN WHERE THIS FOCUS WILL BE.

WITH THIS TYPE OF UNCERTAINTY...THE BLENDED FORECAST SHOULD BE MORE
SKILLFUL THAN MOST OTHER TECHNIQUES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED
BECAUSE OF THE UNDERLYING MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM DIFFERENT MODELS REFLECT WHAT THEY ARE
FORECASTING FOR PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE BLENDED FORECAST WILL BE
USED TO DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES...IT WILL ALSO BE USED TO FORECAST
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

MODELS DEPICT AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS
DOWN AND NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CONSENSUS ASIDE TO PERHAPS NUDGE
HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT OWING TO POTENTIAL PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
INFLUENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG AFTER
09Z AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS WITH THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME AC
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST 16Z-18Z.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING BUT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...MK



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