000
FXUS63 KIND 141957
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING.  GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND THEN ANOTHER AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AND MIXING DIMINISHES.  MODELS INDICATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.
WILL MENTION A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER AND WILL CUT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER AND THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION COULD REACH
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND AS FAR NORTH AS INDY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NAM SEEMS OVER AGGRESSIVE ON ITS QPF AND HAS BEEN
DISCARDED AS AN OUTLIER IN BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW.  WILL TREND CLOSER TO A EUROPEAN...GFS BLEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS CONTINUE TO FALL SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY
SNOW MOST AREAS AND MIXED SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.
HPC INDICATES UP TO 4 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.
BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO ABOUT HALF THAT AMOUNT FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

WILL KEEP CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST HALF SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 06Z AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND MOST
AREAS.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ND WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS FORECAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT
SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
200-220 DEGREES. THESE GUSTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...WITH A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WINDS TO 280-300 DEGREES
LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FRONT EXPECTED TO
BE INACTIVE.

APPEARS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP BASED AT OR ABOVE 050.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ041-042-047>049-
053>057-061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS

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