Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211103
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING AND
TAKE ANY RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

0930Z UPDATE...BASED ON MORE PROGRESSIVE RADAR TRENDS HAVE
REMOVED ALL POPS AND THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD IS
LOOKING FANTASTIC!

AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT LAGGING A BIT BASED ON
EARLIER MODEL TIMING. STILL ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY AS A THIN LINE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS THROUGH 15Z
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON THE SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONLY INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS OF CONVECTION WEAKENING MAY NEED TO DROP MENTION
FROM THE FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL BEGIN ADVECTING OVER THE REGION AND
NW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-22KT. SOME SCATTERED CU IS POSSIBLE BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. BASED ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WENT SLIGHT LOWER WITH GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING
UPPER 60S (NORTH) TO MID 70S (SOUTH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ONLY BY TUESDAY THAT THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALLOWING A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED AND THUS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER HIGHS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND AROUND 70 FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME MOISTURE MAY PUSH NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY THE END OF DAY 7 AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE RETREAT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE THIS
YET.  EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 7.  IF
THE GFS IS RIGHT...LOW POPS MAY BEGIN AFTER DAY 7.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +13 TO +17 THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE ON INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE
SHOWS AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA AND THIS
WILL PERSIST TO MID MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. AFTERWORDS EXPECT
VFR CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER TODAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER 03Z.

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.   WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
NORTH AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

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