095
FXUS63 KIND 150502
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
102 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and quite humid much of the next week, with daily
  shower and thunderstorm chances

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are primary concerns, though
  some potential for more organized/stronger storms will exist late
  this week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Current satellite and radar imagery shows mostly quiet weather
conditions across central Indiana. There are a few showers ongoing
across far southern portions of the area though. This is associated
with a weak boundary which is providing just enough convergence for
isolated showers. The boundary is expected to slowly lift north
overnight into Tuesday. Overall forcing is very weak, but a few
showers cannot be ruled out as the boundary moves north overnight,
mainly across south-central Indiana.

Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight as winds are
very light across the region and high humidity remains. Some mid-
high clouds and less damp soil compared to last night should help
prevent more widespread development. Expect high dewpoints to keep
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible
through the afternoon hours into the early evening across the south,
nearest a weak boundary serving as the only real lifting mechanism
in the region, but intensity and coverage will be significantly
limited by a lack of effective shear. Brief heavy downpours and
lightning will be primary concerns. Any lingering convection should
be nearly dissipated by 00-01Z, around or just prior to sunset.

Most of not all of the night will be dry, though it isn`t entirely
out of the question that a light shower sneaks into the southwestern
portion of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning as a weak
upper disturbance pushes toward the area on the periphery of the
broad subtropical ridge over the southeastern CONUS.

This feature, along with the northward retreat of the aforementioned
weak boundary, will bring somewhat more substantial shower and storm
chances to the area on Tuesday, though given a continued lack of
shear, the primary concerns will remain heavy rain and localized
flooding with slow storm motions, deep subtropical moisture, and
precipitable water values possibly in excess of 2 inches, nearing
climatological maximum.

Lows tonight will again drop back into the upper 60s to low 70s -
near dewpoints, which may promote at least some light fog given
light and variable to calm winds, though uncertainty in this respect
is higher than desired given potential for increasing mid and high
cloud with the aforementioned upper wave. Highs Tuesday will again
be seasonal in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Seasonably warm and quite humid conditions are expected throughout
much of the long term period, with frequent shower and thunderstorm
chances.

The pattern will change only modestly through the next week, with a
weak and broad subtropical ridge over the southeastern CONUS
initially eventually retrograding and strengthening slightly by the
weekend into early next week. This will, however, leave central
Indiana on the periphery of the ridge in prime location for multiple
chances for showers and storms as a very warm and moist airmass
remains in place across the region.

On many days this activity will be largely diurnally driven. The
exception may be late week into the weekend as a surface front moves
into the region and a slightly stronger belt of prevailing
westerlies just to our north along the ridge periphery may provide
stronger support for more organized convection in a couple/few
rounds, perhaps late Thursday into Saturday. Experimental machine
learning guidance indicates at least some minor chances for a few
strong to severe storms during this time frame.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain seasonably warm with
highs generally in the mid 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Dewpoints regularly in the 70s will result in afternoon
heat index values reaching well into the 90s most days, with a few
100 degree plus heat indices possible.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Impacts:

- Fog possible overnight at outlying sites

- Scattered to numerous convection possible after 18Z

Discussion:

Although there will be more clouds around, and the lower atmosphere
will be less moist than yesterday, some patchy fog will still be
around. Will continue to mention MVFR fog at all but KIND, but with
confidence no higher than medium. Fog will mix out by 13Z.

A few showers are possible overnight and during the morning daylight
hours, mainly near KBMG, but the most coverage of convection will
arrive between 18Z Tuesday and 00Z Wednesday. At the moment, the
southern sites look to have the most coverage. Will use PROB30 or
TEMPO as needed.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50