Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291407
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TODAY. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DEGREE OF LIFT AND PROGGED INSTABILITY NOT TOO
EXCESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS ALL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOK OK FOR THE
MOST PART...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN JET. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA AS TO WHERE
THIS CUTOFF WILL OCCUR...ANYWHERE FROM MISSOURI TO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR REASONABLE...SO ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM.  TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS INDICATE
A WARM MOIST AIRMASS MAY PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290900Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OUTLYING TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
AND BRIEFLY MVFR IN CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST RETREATS TO THE EAST.  AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.   FEW AREAS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP


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