Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
227 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area early this week. A
frontal system will move through during the middle of the week.
Another frontal system may effect the area by next weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Only made some minor tweaks to the forecast at this time. Will watch
temperatures as highs might be a bit too cool, but trends aren`t
apparent enough at this time to make any significant changes.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry conditions expected today as surface high pressure holds over
the Ohio Valley. Layered moisture fields off the models suggests
little significant cloud cover today.

Some surface wind gusts around 25 kts expected near peak heating
this afternoon based on low level wind fields and progged mixing

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs today are probably
too cool. Will raise the guidance highs a category.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Quiet weather expected during this period under dry northwest
upper flow and surface high pressure. A weak cold front is
expected to drop through the area tonight, but a generally dry
air mass suggests this front will be inactive.

Upper flow expected to back some towards the end of this period
as a upper trough moves into the Plains. Although there will
probably be an increase in mid and high level cloud starting
Monday night, it appears the precipitation threat with this trough
will hold off until after this forecast period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance looks reasonable during this period. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The slow but steady transition to the cool season will continue
through the extended...with quiet weather bookended by chances
for rain at the beginning and near the end of the forecast period
as systems continue to track across the northern half of the

Surface wave and an associated cold front will track through the
region Wednesday night and Thursday with widespread rain and
a few thunderstorms impacting central Indiana. This system will
quickly translate off the east through the day Thursday with
surface high pressure and ridging aloft providing dry cool weather
for the region to end the week.

Model differences begin to show for the weekend with respect to
handling of the next upper wave and associated low pressure and
front at the surface set to track through the Great Lakes. Op GFS
remains on the fast side of the guidance window and considering
the lack of agreement with respect to the individual GFS ensemble may be exhibiting its known progressive bias in the
mid to long range. Global guidance is also slower with the arrival
of the weekend system. Will continue with a blended forecast
until greater consensus is met...carrying low pops late Friday
night followed by better precip chances for Saturday into Saturday

Temps should generally persist within a few degrees of normal
throughout the extended...with highs in the upper 50s and lower
60s Thursday followed by lower to mid 60s for the rest of the
period. Lows will largely remain in the 40s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 231800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Gusty southwest winds will be the primary issue for aviators this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching low pressure and associated cold front. Expect peak
gusts up to 25kts through early evening with winds diminishing
with the loss of heating and the passage of the cold front.
Virtually no moisture accompanying the boundary with a wind shift
to northwest being the only impact from the passage of the front.

Winds will veer to northerly Monday morning as high pressure
reestablishes over the region. Other than a few cirrus...expect
mainly clear skies.





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