Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 021702
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1202 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

High pressure will build in and provide dry weather into Saturday,
but then a series of systems will bring precipitation chances to
central Indiana about every other day from Sunday into Thursday.
Seasonable temperatures will give way to colder than average
readings after mid-week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 910 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Southern edge of cloud deck has settled south across Illinois and
Indiana. Some erosion of clouds may take place along that edge
during the day but leaning to mostly cloudy or cloudy for all
counties. With that, will lower max temps especially in southwest
where some sunshine was expected. Radar detecting few specks of
very weak echoes near Kokomo. Possible some drizzle or mist may
occur there next few hours but not enough to add in forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/
Issued at 253 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Warmer temperatures will gradually move in and cyclonic flow will
ease tonight, so allowed skies to become partly cloudy by Saturday
morning. High pressure will then keep the area partly cloudy and dry
during the day Saturday.

Clouds will thicken up Saturday night ahead of an upper wave. Lift
begins overnight Saturday night as the wave approaches, but the
lower atmosphere should take a while to moisten up. Thus only expect
some low PoPs across the southwest then.

As the wave moves across the area Sunday, isentropic lift will move
across the area and an upper jet will provide additional forcing.
Bumped up the intialization`s PoPs a bit based on this forcing and
the QPF models are putting out. Thus went likely far northeast and
chance PoPs elsewhere.

Forcing will quickly exit the area so only slight chance PoPs are
expected far northeast Sunday evening.

Precipitation type will vary with the heating of the day with this
system. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow late Saturday
night into Sunday morning, then temperatures will warm enough for
rain for the area by afternoon. A return to a mix is possible by
Sunday evening. Any snow accumulations look to be less than an inch
and confined mainly to the far northwest forecast area where the
coolest temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Models suggest at least two systems to impact the area during the
work week.

The first appears likely to bring all rain to the area as low level
thermals remain relatively warm. The second is likely to be
accompanied by the first winter blast of cold air, and may bring a
light snowfall to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The first
light accumulating snowfall of the season cannot be ruled out if the
GFS were to verify...but the Euro is slower with the arrival of the
colder air and thus less bullish on snowfall potential.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 021800Z TAFs/...

Issued at 1156 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

VFR deck across routes extending back into Dakotas should remain
common feature through the period. Deck around 2000 feet should
scatter out as afternoon progresses.

Visible satellite shows some breaks in cloud deck across Iowa
which should progress this way and may be more diurnally driven
thus suggesting possible scattering of all low decks after 030600z
per some model data. Low confidence in this solution given that it
is often difficult to clear lower cloud until warm advection kicks
in or next wave approaches which means at or beyond this forecast
period.

Winds around 10 kts will drop off by sundown and remain below 10
knots thereafter.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TUCEK



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