Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 222028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO AROUND AVERAGE VALUES FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN TO
BREAK UP SOME AND MOVE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO WILL
GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD SO EXPECT
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS REPRESENTS THIS WELL SO STAYED CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

FOCUS IS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR SO WILL
USE A BLEND.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL AND PROVIDING A DRY EASTERLY
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER MAV
LOOKS TO WARM THINGS UP TOO QUICK GIVEN THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW. WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE MET MOS/MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF. BY SUNDAY WARMER ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER SMALL POPS WILL BE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 222100Z/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONLY MINOR INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS
REMAIN DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN UNREACHABLE. A BIT MORE
MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY RESULT IN A FEW CU NEAR
LAF...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAKE. ANY CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS
WE APPROACH SUNSET AND HEATING IS LOST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK

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