Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140724
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
224 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Windy conditions will continue across central Indiana this evening
and tonight along with low chances for measurable precipitation as
a cold front moves through the area. Colder than normal
temperatures will be in the place then until the weekend, when a
warmup to normal is in store. Much uncertainty exists for next
week with models showing a large variety of solutions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...

Issued at 1007 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Surface analysis late this evening shows strong Low pressure was
in place over Northwest Ohio. A strong pressure gradient was in
place across Indiana...resulting in gusty NW winds with gusts to
near 40 mph. Satellite shows a cloud shield over Indiana and
Northern Illinois amid the cyclonic flow across Indiana.

Cloudy skies are expected to remain overnight as the cyclonic
flow is expected to persist. Time heights show saturated lower
levels...which seems reasonable given the satellite trends. for
now will keep any snow or flurry mention to out of Central Indiana
and radar echos remain to the north for now. Will expect winds to
diminish as the surface low pulls east as the night progresses.
Stuck close to the model blend on low temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...

Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Thursday looks dry, with the possible exception of some ongoing scattered lake
effect flurries in the northwestern counties to start the day.
Winds will be much lighter than the last couple of days with a
weak gradient over the area. Temperatures will warm into the upper
20s to middle 30s in the afternoon as sunshine increases.

Friday a clipper system will move through the Great Lakes, but models have been
trending north with this system and thus now have only a slight
chance for snow across the northern counties during the day. Do
not expect much in the way of accumulation, and uncertain if those
counties will see anything more than a flurry with the best
forcing well north of the area.

Saturday temperatures will start to warm up as upper ridging builds over
the area. Look for highs in the 40s and dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 222 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Ensembles in good agreement with a fairly zonal and progressive
upper patter during this period.

Appears the best threat for precipitation during this period will
be from Sunday into early Monday as an upper disturbance passes
through the area. Will keep PoPs in the forecast at these times to
cover this feature. Appears most of the precipitation will be in
the form of rain, with some potential for mixed precipitation at
the beginning and end of the event, Sunday morning and Monday
morning.

Some of the ensembles suggest a mixed precipitation threat around
Monday night and Tuesday morning with a possible upper wave
passing through the Great Lakes, but confidence is low in this
feature at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 140600z TAFs/...

Issued at 1156 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

MVFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this taf period.

Surface analysis shows deep and strong low pressure over NW
Ohio...quickly moving east. A strong cyclonic pressure gradient
was in place across Central Indiana...resulting in gusty NW winds
of 25-35 mph. Satellite shows a shield of MVFR Cloud across
Central Indiana and upstream across Northern Illinois and Nrn
Indiana poised to sweep into the state.

Time heights keep low level moisture present through at least the
mid morning hours...and given the amount of cloud upstream and the
expected cyclonic flow...this appears quite reasonable. Thus will
continue the MVFR CIGS through much of the overnight. Some break
over Wisconsin should begin to arrive on Thursday morning as the
low departs.

Lower level flow becomes anticyclonic by Thursday afternoon and
the pressure gradient becomes relaxed. Thus CIGSs are expected to
be lost by Thursday afternoon and winds will diminish.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JP


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