Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONE IS AN OLD FRONT AND THE OTHER IS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

AT TIMES THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE OVER INDIANA. AT OTHER TIMES IT
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH.  IT LOCATION IS GOING TO BE DETERMINED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...BUT WILL CHANGE SIZE SEVERAL TIMES. WHEN IT IS LARGE...THE
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH. WHEN IT SHRINKS...THE FRONT WILL RETURN
TO OUR STATE.

NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HOOSIER STATE AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES AS OF 02Z ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA BUT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED PAST SUNSET COURTESY OF THE
FRONT AND COMBINED WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND FORCING
ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN NOW THAT DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 04Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MAY START TO SEE HIGHER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPROACH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LOOK REASONABLE. MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW
RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS WHAT POPS WILL BE.

ALL MODELS AGREE THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT CHANGING MUCH. HOWEVER
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS IN THESE SITUATIONS WHERE CONVECTION IS
THE MAIN THING.

THERE IS NO SOLUTION WE CAN HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN...BUT THE GFS
IS THE THING TO BASE THE FORECAST ON. ITS A STRONG MODEL AND IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE NAM. THIS GIVES CONFIDENCE
IT WILL BE RIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL NAM IS AN OUTLIER. GIVEN IT OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH CONVECTION/LATENT ISSUES IT WONT GET MUCH WEIGHT.

ALL TOLD...THE MAV WILL BE USED WITH LITTLE ALTERATION. SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED LATER AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON DETAILS.

FOR QPF...THE HPC GUIDANCE LOOKS OK UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT CONSIDERING
WHERE THE RAIN SHOULD BE. AFTER THAT THE SUPERBLEND QPF WILL BE
USED. HPC GUIDANCE SEEMS OUT OF LINE WITH WHERE THE POPS SHOULD BE
HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS BEGIN TO SUGGEST A MODERATION OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
FLOW TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ON TUESDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGHY PATTERN IN PLACE ALOFT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW SUGGEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPPER PATTER BEGINS TO
FLATTEN...BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A
LINGERING...POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN
PLACE...DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THIS FEATURE PRESENT.

AGAIN...WITH A LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL
TREND TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG THAT APPEARS LIKELY AT THE OUTLYING SITES
NEAR DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY BMG AND HUF.

STORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET CONVECTION WISE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BMG RECEIVED RAIN
EARLIER THIS EVENING AND HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO MVFR. WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO IFR PERIOD NEAR DAYBREAK THERE...WITH ONLY MVFR ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT OWING
TO UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

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