Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 012047
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BEFORE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...MIXING AT TIMES...LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL APPEARS POSSIBLE COUPLED WITH DEEPLY FROZEN GROUND AND A
DEEP SNOWPACK WITH UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. QUIETER BUT
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

FINAL BANDS OF SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS
TIME. ONE FINAL BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTING THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA NEAR 00Z...AND WILL CARRY
SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH ESPECIALLY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING EVERYTHING LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED AND ROADS MAY REMAIN
HAZARDOUS IN SOME AREAS...SO WILL LET THE HEADLINES RIDE AS IS
UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME AT 7 PM. EVENING SHIFT MAY CANCEL EARLY AS NEEDED.

EXPECT TEMPS TO GET DOWN WELL INTO THE TEENS...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SINGLE DIGIT READINGS DEPENDING ON HOW LOW
DEWPOINTS CAN GET ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS IS GENERALLY AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN OR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH EXTREMELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
BACK OF A PROGGED 70KT LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. MAY
REQUIRE SOME SORT OF HEADLINE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING AND AN EVENT STILL ONGOING/WINDING
DOWN WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR NOW AND RELY ON
HWO/GRAPHICS TO HIGHLIGHT NEXT THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT...FLOODING MAY ALSO
BECOME AN ISSUE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...OR MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT APPROACHING ONE INCH IN SPOTS...WHICH WILL BE RAPIDLY
MELTING AS THE EVENT WEARS ON.

THE GROUND IS ALSO FROZEN FAIRLY DEEPLY AND WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO
WARM THAN THE AIR OBVIOUSLY...WHICH MEANS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
RAIN FALLING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY CONVERTED TO RUNOFF.

ADDITIONALLY...URBAN FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM AS PARTIALLY MELTED
SNOW CLOGS STREET DRAINS AND ALLOWS RUNOFF TO POOL ON ROADS.

PROBABILISTIC QPF PROGS PLACE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF ONE INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN RAINFALL
APPROACHING ONE INCH MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

USED CONSENSUS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY...WITH SOME
MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM SUN MAR 1 2015

LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AS THE EURO AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS A
COUPLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -17
CELSIUS. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME OVER THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM AS MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO.  IN MOST CASES A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN POOR AT TIMES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION
MOVES ON TO THE EAST. HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE TODAY AND EARLIER
TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE TAFS TO BECOME
VFR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE REST OF TODAY BECOMING NORTHWEST
UP TO 8 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING AND LIGHT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035-038-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

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