Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231705
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF
INDIANA/S WEATHER INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUES DRY WEATHER.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
TOWARD INDIANA AND THEN ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR THIS
PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING
ALL PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES SOME LIMITED DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 050. THESE DIURNAL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS
ABOVE THIS LEVEL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE WINDS 150-180 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 7 KTS AFTER DARK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

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