Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 252042
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
AND BRINGS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT CLOUDS TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ERODE SOME BY
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND GENERAL UPPER
PATTERN. THIS IS SLOWER THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION STARING UP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AND USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND POPS/PRECIP TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT IT TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER 0Z
HAVE SNOW AS ONLY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR...WARM GROUND...AND
NOT MUCH FORCING AT LOW LEVELS THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BEST CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER 0Z. ALL MAJOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS KEEP QPF OUT OF NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA SO TRENDED POPS
DOWN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL BE
THROUGH BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER FOR
WEDNESDAY LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT WERE CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FOR BOTH GFS AND ECM WITH MAV
NUMBERS LOOKING TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MVFR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF
PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THIS. FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

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