000
FXUS63 KIND 100228
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1029 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

A WELCOME STRETCH OF SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE NATURE REMINDS US TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY THAT ALL IS NOT SUNSHINE AND FLOWERS DURING THE
TRANSITION SEASON. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES CONTROL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TAILING OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CURRENT READINGS BELOW WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS TIME
AND APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS. APPEARS TO BE DECENT WARM ADVECTION
TONIGHT...SO THINK TEMPERATURE FALL WILL SLOW DOWN. WILL DROP THE
LOWS TONIGHT A CATEGORY TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL A LITTLE
MORE.

LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD UPSTREAM THAT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL BUMP UP
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A WEATHER NIL NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THIS LEAVES MIN TEMPS AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...SO EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP AND
PERHAPS GUST A LITTLE AT TIMES. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM BOTTOMING OUT ALL THE WAY TO THE DEWPOINTS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS
SEEMED TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE USED ASIDE FROM A FEW
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON MID WEEK SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO BRING
RAIN AND PERHAPS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE DRY UNTIL THEN AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FORCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW EXPECTED TO RIDE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES A RESULT OF SPEED AS THE GFS
AND GEM ARE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE EURO AND NAM/SREF. THE OVERALL
SITUATION IS THE SAME HOWEVER...WITH RAIN INITIALLY OVERSPREADING
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND DRAWS
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE ON THE FRINGES OF WINTER...GROUND TEMPERATURE
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW WELL SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE...AND A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
COMPLICATE THAT AS WELL. STORM TOTALS COULD BE DRAMATICALLY
IMPACTED BY BOTH GROUND TEMPERATURES AND WHEN OBSERVERS
MEASURE...AS SETTLEMENT/MELTING CAN HAPPEN QUICKLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR NOW...EXPECTING A STORM TOTAL OF 2-5 FROM ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER THE
NORTH. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE A TRACE TO 2
INCHES...WITH THE QUICKNESS OF THE TRANSITION TO SNOW GOING A LONG
WAY TOWARD DETERMINING TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. 3.6 INCHES STILL REQUIRED TO SET THE ALL TIME
SNOW SEASON RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...CONSENSUS NUMBERS LOOKED QUITE REASONABLE
THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS WHEN NONDIURNAL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT...HOWEVER AS
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF INDIANA BY THURSDAY STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH EJECT AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DAY7.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FLATTEN OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
AT 2 THOUSAND FEET WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY KLAF LATER
TONIGHT.  WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE LESS AT KIND AND KHUF AND WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THOSE TAFS FOR NOW.

ONCE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS MONDAY...EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING IN.

CONCERNING CLOUDS EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH
SOME MID CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG ISSUES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JH

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