Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271030
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion...correction
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
630 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Scattered Showers will end by late morning as a cold front
over Indiana moves on to the east.

Low pressure will deepen over the southern plains Friday and
move towards the great lakes over the weekend.  A warm front
will develop over the Ohio valley and move north by Saturday
producing heavy rainfall and a chance of storms.  This
will be followed by a cold front late Sunday.

Finally a third system will bring a chance of more showers by the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Low pressure was over northeast Illinois and a cold front extended
south along the Indiana Illinois border.  Showers and a few thunder-
storms will be the rule this morning as the cold front moves east.
High res models indicate showers will diminish with time and will
go with high chance POPS east and central sections after 12Z.
Showers will end all areas by midday as cold front moves rapidly
to the east.

It will be mostly cloudy breezy and cool after the cold front moves
through.  Temperatures may fall into the upper 40s over western
sections this morning and struggle to reach 60 this afternoon.
Raised high temperatures slightly over east sections today and went
near or slightly below a MOS blend west.  Lows tonight will be from
the middle 40s north to around 50 south which is near a MOS blend.

A fairly tight pressure gradient will be across our area today
with winds of 15 to 20 knots and gusts to 20 to 25 knots.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Models are in fairly good agreement and will go with a blended
solution working fairly well.

Models develop a warm front across Kentucky Friday and move it slowly
north by Saturday as low pressure strengthens over the southern
plains and eventually moves into the middle and upper Mississippi
valley by Sunday.  Showers will develop Friday and become heavy at
times late Friday night through the weekend.   Flooding will the
main concern as lots of gulf moisture moves north into the Ohio
valley and strong UVV occurs along the warm front.

SPC has the southern half of Indiana in a slight risk of severe
weather Friday.  But I believe this is too far north Friday as front
will be still south of the Ohio river.   Will go with an increasing
chance of thunderstorms Friday night as the warm front starts to
lift to the north.
I believe Saturday will see a better threat of severe weather as the
warm front moves north across our region.

in most cases stayed close to a MOS Blend on temperatures Friday and
Friday night and went slightly above in the south Saturday as warm
front starts to lift north.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

The active weather that will begin early in the forecast period
will continue into the long term portion of the forecast. Low
pressure will push northeast into the Great Lakes early in the
period, with the cold front moving through the area Sunday night.
Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front
with heavy rain and flooding remaining a distinct threat with
precipitable water values approaching the climatological maximum
for the time of year.

Additional showers will be a possibility with the upper low Monday
into Monday night, and then again Tuesday into mid week as
additional upper level disturbances and then a more organized
upper level trough move into the region. Convective indices show a
limited thunder threat and will keep it out of these periods for
now.

Blended initialization handled things well with only minor tweaks
required.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 27/1200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

MVFR ceilings through mid afternoon and then VFR after that.

Low pressure over southern lake Michigan and a cold front extending
south across western Indiana will move quickly to the east.
Scattered light showers are possible this morning...but will end by
mid day.

Main issue will be MVFR ceilings of 1 to 2 thousand feet and
gusty southwest winds around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots.
Ceilings will lift to VFR by late afternoon and only mid clouds
expected later tonight as weak ridge of high pressure moves in.

Winds will be from the southwest around 15 knots and gusts to
25 knots today becoming 5 knots or less by late evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JH



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