Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 150720
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER TROUGH BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET...BUT WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE OR NOT IS MUCH
SHAKIER. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FACTORS POINT TOWARD
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME GOOD PRECIP RATES...OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS POINT TOWARD SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARM
GROUND AND PAVEMENT WILL WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING.

SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ADEQUATE IF NOT SPECTACULAR...BUT VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS /RAIN OR SNOW/ SHOULD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REDEVELOP. BRIEF
HIGH PRECIP RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WHICH UNDER PAVEMENT ARE RANGING FROM
55 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS...AND LATEST HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BEGINNING TO HINT THAT MAJORITY OF SNOW COULD
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE HERE.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO ARGUES AGAINST ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY THREE DATES
FROM THIS POINT OR LATER OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 30-40
YEARS.

IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS AT
MOST...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A STRETCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE/ENHANCED PRECIP RATES MAY MAKE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SNOW SIDE NW
INITIALLY...WITH TRANSITION IN THE IND METRO AROUND 03-04Z AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST MORE LIKE 04-06Z. ANYTHING FALLING AFTER 06Z
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS TRACKED WELL WITH WETBULB TEMPS AND WERE USED
WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE BEING ONE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN ACCORDING TO OFFICE COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL AND STATE
AGRICULTURAL OFFICIALS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. DO NOT
WANT TO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING QUITE YET TO AVOID MUDDYING THE
WATERS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MINOR THEY MAY BE. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE
LIKELY UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL START VERY COLD...NEAR
RECORD LOW MAX NUMBERS TUESDAY...BUT WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS
TO THE TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ZONES. EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME.

SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 015 FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT FOR A
TIME AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY UNDER THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH.

SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS FROM 320-350 DEGREES EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

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