Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT THAT SOME CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS BY TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT SURE A FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS
WARRANTED...AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR
AWHILE...BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. OVER
THE PAST 5 DAYS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLOWLY TRENDED COLDER...WETTER
AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO JUST SHY OF
LIKELY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL COOL
RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALBEIT A COLD RAIN. LINGERING POP
CHANCES SPILL INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME
RAPIDLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON.
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. IF HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WASN/T ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY NEARING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.
INCREASED WINDS TO SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WIND
CHILLS BELOW THE FREEZING MARKING DURING THE EVENING
TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA DURING THE COMING WEEKEND...QUITE A REVERSAL FROM LAST WEEKENDS
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. WHILE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...HIGHS IN
THE 40S APPEAR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE 50S LATER.

MODELS ALSO DEPICT AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

EXPECT THAT LOW END VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE WESTERLY EARLY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

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