Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN FLATTEN
OUT SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LABOR DAY AND THEN MODERATE SOME BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AND WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATELLITE INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS AND WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WAS JUST WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO LATER TODAY.   THE COMBINATION OF A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AND
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
SECTIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MOST MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...BUT SHOULD END QUICKLY ELSEWHERE AFTER DARK.  WILL END
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT.   LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WHICH IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MORE OF THE SAME WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR
WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN OHIO.  TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WILL BE TODAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY STAGNANT.  WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OTHER SECTIONS AND
PERHAPS COMPLETELY DRY FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE CAPPED.

A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT MODELS HINT THAT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE LESS.  BUT THESE CHANGES WILL BE
VERY MINOR.  ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPCOMING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SERVE TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY RANGE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FRONT IN THE AREA.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD START TO COOL OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS LOWER WITH TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RATHER WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING...WITH VISIBILITIES STARTING TO FALL
AT THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL ADD SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNTIL
031300Z ON THE UPDATE. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
VISIBILITIES ABOVE IFR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...MMB/MK/JAS


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