000
FXUS63 KIND 261916
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
316 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...

The Synopsis, Near Term, and Short Term sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A surface and upper level trough will move through the area this
afternoon and this evening, perhaps bringing a spotty shower or
thunderstorm to portions of the area. Beyond this, dry weather
will be the rule through at least Wednesday as surface high
pressure moves through the area. Thunderstorm chances will return
beginning Wednesday night and continuing into the weekend as a
frontal system moves into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Water vapor imagery clearly shows a compact upper level low over
Lake Michigan this afternoon. This has begun to spark widely
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over northern Illinois
and Indiana, and these will likely make their way into central
Indiana late this afternoon and this evening. Decent shear is
present but instability is minimal at best. Thus, expect coverage
and intensity of these showers and storms to peak this afternoon
into early evening and wane quickly with loss of daytime heating.
Will carry low pops and go dry from 06Z onward.

Consensus temperatures appeared slightly too warm given expected
dewpoints tonight and made minor downward adjustments. Would not
be surprised to see northern portions of the area make the upper
40s just before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dry weather will dominate into Wednesday as a strong surface high
moves through the area. The next frontal system will begin to
approach Wednesday night, and will have to reintroduce pops then,
ramping them up late Wednesday night into Thursday as the boundary
pushes toward the area.

Temps will steadily warm throughout the short term, going from
well below normal Tuesday to back near seasonal normals by
Thursday as heights build across the area. Consensus numbers
captured this well and were generally accepted.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Chances for rain and storms will be the rule through much of the
long term as an upper low slowly makes its way from Saskatchewan
through the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes. This will
send a series of upper waves through central Indiana as well as a
frontal system that will slowly move through the area as surface low
pressure moves along it. Could see some dry conditions Saturday
night into Sunday as the aforementioned front moves south and east
of the area, but greater model variability on frontal placement
makes confidence of a completely dry period low. Temperatures should
be near normal with little variability as the main upper pattern and
thicknesses remain relatively unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/18Z TAFs/...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR through the period.

Some spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible this
afternoon as an upper level trough moves through the region.
Thunder is a non zero threat, but too low probability for mention.
Will include VCSH around most likely time for showers.

Winds will generally be west/northwesterly with a few gusts to
18-21KT possible during the first 6 hours or so of the period.
Winds will drop below 10KT overnight and become a bit more
northwesterly.

No significant obstructions to visibility are anticipated. A light
patch of fog cannot be entirely ruled out where rain falls, but
predictability of this at a specific point is basically nil at the
moment.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD