000
FXUS63 KIND 300906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
406 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM
PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS/EURO/NAM ARE ALL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...TAKING THE 700 MB LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE OUTLYING MODEL AT THIS TIME IS THE
EURO...WHICH TAKES THE TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH THAN THE GFS
AND NAM. EITHER WAY THOUGH...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS SWATH BETWEEN
-2C AND -8C ISOTHERMS AT 850 MB LINES UP OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...1000-500MB THICKNESS LINES OF
ALL 3 MODELS POINT TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD
RECEIVE SOME WINTRY MIX WITH JUST THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT OF TRACK TO
THE NORTH.

WESTERN COUNTIES COULD START SEEING SOME SNOWFALL AROUND SUN
00Z...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STRENGTHENS AFTER SUN 06Z. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN SUN 12Z-MON
00Z...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF BY MON 06Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO MODEL BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THIS WILL HELP BUMP HIGHS UP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY
THOUGH AS WINDS BACK TO THE EAST...AND PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM.  THE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING LONG SNOW SUNDAY WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE COLD. TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION.

BOTH THE GFS AND GEMNH MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT 18 TO 24 HOURS SLOWER.  PREFER THE
FASTER GFS AND GEMNH MODEL AS THE EURO SEEMS TO HOLD UP THE NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TOO LONG.

WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT.  FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOST AREAS WILL
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SNOW COVER. OTHERWISE...A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE FOR MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
EXTENSIVE CEILINGS 030-035 EXTEND WELL UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL
AREA...BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...PREFER TO HOLD ONTO BROKEN
CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT APPEARS WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 300-320
DEGREES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
OFF...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL VEER TO 330-350 DEGREES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS/JH

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