713
FXUS63 KIND 110503
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
103 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather tonight

- Mainly dry and warmer on Friday, an isolated late afternoon
thunderstorm possible.

- Generally very warm/humid into next week; greatest rain/storm
chances through this weekend.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Convection over far NW Indiana is attempting to slowly propagate
south both visually and on radar, thanks to a moderately strong
gust front /recent obs should gusts to 20 kts/ down into the
moderate instability axis /mlcape 1500-2000 j/kg/. Gradually
increasing cinh with loss of heating should support a weakening
trend, although there is a slight chance that residual showers may
make it to far northern counties later tonight /08-10z/ so have
adjusted the forecast for that area. Otherwise forecast is on
track with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Surface Analysis early this afternoon shows shows broad but
disorganized high pressure stretching from eastern Ontario, across
MI to Indiana and then to eastern TX and the deep south. A decaying
MCV and thunderstorm complex was found over south east MN. This
system continued to wane with its eastward progression toward the
high pressure system. Water vapor showed strong subsidence in place
over Indiana on the lee side of an upper ridge over the upper
midwest. This large area of subsidence stretched from the ST.
Lawrence Valley...across Indiana to Arkansas and TX. Lower level
flow across Indiana was weak and variable due to the broad high
pressure system. GOES16 shows expected diurnal CU development over
Central Indiana.

Tonight...

Little overall change in our weather will be expected the weak high
over the area and the upper ridging over the western Great Lakes
will begin to drift eastward. However subsidence, a dry column and a
lack of any forcing will continue to to result in quiet, fair
weather. As the high drifts a bit to the east tonight, a southerly
and warmer lower level flow will begin to set-up for Friday.  Dew
points remain humid, in the upper 60s to around 70. Expect lows in
the mid 60s to around 70, near persistence.

Friday -

As the surface high remains farther east of Indiana, a more
southerly flow will begin to set up within the lower levels. This
will put an end to the subsidence aloft, and bring about a gradual
increase in moisture through the column by 12Z. Forecast soundings
fail to show a saturated level, but CAPE over 2600 J/KG appears
present by late afternoon as convective temperatures in the upper
80s are reached. Upstream, an upper disturbance is expected to
generate showers and thunderstorms over WI and NRN IL. Some of these
may impact Indiana on Friday night, but during the afternoon hours
Central Indiana will just remain in this warm and moist sector with
diurnal instability arriving late in the day. Thus most of the day
and most areas should remain dry, but a few stray, isolated late
afternoon showers and storms cannot be ruled out. Will likely
include a 20 pop for this possibility.

With southerly and warmer flow in place, highs should be slightly
warmer on Friday, in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Overall typical midsummer weather is expected through the long term
as generally warm and humid conditions. Most days have at least a
slight chance of showers and storms, with best chances late day
Saturday and Sunday, then additional chances midweek.

Aloft, troughing will help bring shower and storm chances this
weekend while a surface low passes through the Great Lakes. Saturday
will see the best chances, mainly for the latter part of the day and
into the overnight hours. Above normal PWATs are expected for late
Saturday as well, so could see some localized flooding potential
within heavy showers or should storms pass over the same area
numerous times. Also can`t rule out a few stronger storms
producing higher wind gusts; otherwise, widespread severe weather
is not expected at this time.

Models show the potential for another surface low in the region that
could bring additional shower and storm chances for late day Sunday.
There lacks agreement on where exactly the low will track so lacking
confidence on where the best rain chances will be that day at this
time.

High pressure still looks to bring a brief break in precipitation
early next week before another upper wave returns midweek,
bringing additional storms and continued warmth. Behind this
midweek system, central Indiana could see at least a brief break
from the heat and humidity as high temperatures late next week
could only be as high as the upper 70s to low 80s. Will continue
to monitor trends as it gets closer. Otherwise, high temperatures
through the next week will be in the upper 80s to potentially low
90s with lows in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Impacts:

- Low probability of convection early at KLAF
- S-SW wind gusts up to 20kt Friday afternoon.

Discussion:

Thunderstorms to the northwest of central Indiana should weaken or
move away from the TAF sites early in the period, but there is a low
chance that some could make it to KLAF. Odds are low enough though
that will not mention in the TAF.

Cannot rule out brief fog at times at KBMG overnight, but again,
odds are too low to mention at this time.

Otherwise, diurnal cumulus will return late Friday morning into the
afternoon. Some wind gusts near 20kt will occur as well Friday
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...50