Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 242040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
440 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated


Issued at 440 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A series of front and/or upper disturbances will keep chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of central
Indiana into next week. Temperatures will be near to above average,
and humid conditions will continue.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 440 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Due to severe weather the discussion will be short.

Upper system across Illinois will continue to produce scattered
convection across the area into early evening. Then there should be
a lull until perhaps a convective complex moves into northwest
sections late tonight.

Will go chance PoPs most areas, diminishing into early overnight.
Ramped back up late into low likely far northwest and chance


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 440 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Due to severe weather the discussion will be short.

A cold front will move through on Thursday but upper support is
weak. A potential thunderstorm complex could impact the far
northwest early in the day. Will go slight chance to chance PoPs
most areas, except likely early far northwest.

Kept low PoPs Thursday evening then dry as front sags south. Went
slight chance south Friday with front nearby. As a little upper
support returns along with the front Saturday went low PoPs.

Stuck with model blend on temperatures.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The blended forecast from the Regional initialization can be used
with moderate confidence.

The models generally agree in depicting a short wave trough moving
across the Great Lakes early in the period with a frontal
boundary gradually sinking south across our area Monday and
Tuesday. Prior to the fronts arrival in warm and unstable air
with upper troughing aiding in lift...expect the potential for
scattered convection. Once the front moves in and across the area
Monday the storm threat will be slightly higher. As that front
settles south of our area heights remain high and with humidity
still time heating may still trigger some
isolated storms. By Wednesday another upper trough approaching
from the west will return a slightly higher storm threat and
slightly higher coverage as well.

With relatively high heights this will be a relatively warm
period with lows in the upper 60s or lower 70s...similar
to guidance...while highs generally reach mid 80s to around
90. Once the front moves through these readings will only drop a
category with lows into the low/mid 60s and highs mid 80s.
Dewpoints will only be slight drier.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 242100Z KIND TAF Update/...

Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Scattered convection currently occurring across the area ahead of a
vorticity center that is moving into northwestern Indiana. Convective
threat at the KIND terminal will remain high until about 242300Z or so.
Brief IFR visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds in and near
convective areas.

Previous discussion follows.

Winds this afternoon above 10 knots gusting to 20 knots from
south to southwest but drop off before sunset.

Thunderstorm threat is most likely for KLAF through 241900Z.
Remaining TAF sites much more questionable for thunder. Air
does continue to destabilize and potential does exist for current
line of storms KVPZ to KCMI to develop further south of KCMI and
thus affect KHUF, KIND and KBMG. Rapid Refresh model suggests
potential as well so will carry a VCTS threat for these sites this

Short wave causing current convection over IL and IN will exit
with its rain threat by 250000z. Some models continue a threat
this evening but probabilities are too low to carry even as a
mention in TAFs. Some light fog near daybreak Thursday especially
at KLAF where rain has occurred.

Next rain threat is with cold front but that occurs after 252100Z.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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