Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 230821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
421 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through the weekend. An
upper level low may affect the area by the early part of next


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Dry weather expected today as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Some diurnal cloud development likely under the 850mb
thermal trough.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for tonight may be a
little on the cool side. Will nudge up the guidance a bit.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Fairly static upper air pattern expected during this period, as long
wave troughing sets up over the eastern parts of the country. This
will result in a dry northwest upper flow locally. Models suggest
little threat for precipitation as a large surface high drifts
slowly through the region. Will continue with a dry forecast through
Friday night.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for the next
couple of days are probably a little on the cool side. Will bump the
guidance highs Thursday and Friday. The guidance lows look OK.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Good confidence that the weekend will be dry with below normal
temperatures per the blend as models and ensembles agree that broad
surface high pressure over Ontario and Quebec along with an upper
ridge will result in tranquil weather.

After that, there are differences with the models and ensembles
regarding how far northeast the Harvey revival will get and also
with its associated moisture plume. The 00z ECWMF for instance has
Harvey near the border of northern Texas and northern Louisiana at
00z Tuesday, while the 12z GFS has Harvey absorbed by an upper
Midwest trough and or upper low. The latter will spell more
convection over the area and support high pops by Monday. The former
solution would trend more towards dry Monday, with the uppper
Midwest system having less moisture to work with. The blend splits
the difference with small pops Monday. This seems reasonable for
this far out, and after coordinating with IWX and ILN, will not make
any changes. Best pops look to be on Tuesday when the upper system
seems most likely to make an impact at this time anyway.

With increasing clouds, temperatures will have a hard time making it
out of the 70s next week per the blend.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 230900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Been some cloud cover based around 050 in the vicinity of the KIND
terminal over the past couple of hours. Will add this to the
forecast through the mid morning hours.

Previous discussion follows.

VFR through the period.

High pressure will begin building into the area overnight in the
wake of the departing cold front. Skies will clear and winds will
diminish. Cannot entirely rule out light MVFR fog mainly at the
outlying sites near daybreak, but at this time continue to expect
drier air to work in in time to prevent this. Will monitor trends
through the night.

Winds will be 10KT or less through the period, generally out of
the northwest.




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