Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 190214

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1014 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Aviation sections updated


Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A frontal system is expected to drop south through the area
tonight. A surface wave will move along the front around
Wednesday night or Thursday. In the wake of this system, high
pressure is expected to move into the area through early next


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 955 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have been very limited so far this
evening, so trended toward a decrease in pops over the next
several hours. Best chances for any showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight will be confined to the southern
counties where forcing will be best ahead of frontal boundary.
Current temps across the area are generally in the mid to upper
60s/low 70s and are still expected to fall into the mid 50s
(north) to mid 60s (south).  Updated grids have been sent.

Appears cold front will be moving into the northwest zones over the
next couple of hours. Short term model guidance suggests this
front will continue to sag south tonight, reaching far southern
Indiana by daybreak Wednesday.

There may be enough forcing along the exiting 850mb jet core to
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon
and evening near the frontal zone. Much of this forcing cuts off by
190600Z, so think the main precipitation threat will be later this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Will leave some small chance
PoPs over the far southern zones past 190600Z in the vicinity of
the front.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight look


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Model data suggest upper trough currently moving into the Rockies
will push into the Midwest by Thursday. This should help to induce
a surface wave along the front, which is expected to move through
the local area late Wednesday night or during the day Thursday.
Operational models track this surface wave generally along the Ohio
River, although the ensembles suggest a track further north is

Overall forcing looks to remain rather weak until Wednesday night
and Thursday, when warm advection aloft gets stronger as the upper
trough approaches. Will go with increasing chance PoPs from south
to north during the day Wednesday, and go with high PoPs Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Upper trough is expected to pass over the area Thursday night, so
precipitation threat should begin to diminish by that time. Drier
conditions expected by Friday as surface high pressure begins
to move in from the west.

To allow for the potential for a farther north solution, will raise
the GFS MOS temperature guidance about a category in all periods.


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
A strong upper trough over the eastern Great lakes and St. Lawrence
valley FRiday evening will move to the east over the weekend which
will allow the upper flow to become more zonal early next week.

Quiet and dry weather will occur most of this period as high
pressure moves southeast across our region.  The GFS brings showers
to northern sections late Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves
into the upper midwest and a warm front develops across northern
Indiana.  While the EURO is a little slower and hints that any rain
chances may holdoff until after Tuesday.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal Friday night and
Saturday warming to slightly above normal early next week.
Highs will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s Saturday warming
to the middle 60s to around 70 by Tuesday.  Lows will be in
the upper 30s to around 40 Saturday morning and in the 40s rest
of the long term period.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 190300 IND Taf Update/...

VFR Conditions continue.

We have been able to remove any VCTS mention as radar trends
suggest the stray showers well north of Indy will not impact the
TAF site. No further development expected as heating and any
albeit weak instability has been lost. Cold front already in NW
Indiana...making good progress southeast.

Previous Discussion Below

/Discussion for the 190000z tafs/...

Issued at 732 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR Conditions are expected to continue for much of this taf

Cold front remains NW of the taf sites...however the associated
VFR cloud shield remains ahead of the front across IND...HUF and
BMG. Rapid refresh suggests that this feature will continue it/s
slow progression toward the southeast and as it progresses along
with the loss of daytime heating...shra/vcts chances will diminish
sharply. confidence is not high enough to include a mention of
prevailing precipitation at any specific site.

Time heights and forecast soundings the show mainly a dry column
on Wednesday as the front stalls near the Ohio River and High
pressure builds from the Central Plains states. Thus VFR
conditions will be expected for much of the day on Wednesday.




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