Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...BUT
THEN BE SWEPT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THEN INDIANA IS GOING TO ENTER AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE OUR STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE.

THE MODELS AGREE THE AIR OVER THE CWA IS NOT CHANGING MUCH. BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY THAT INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...AND A CHANCE ANYTIME NEAR A DEWPOINT
GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH. ANY RAIN COULD BE HEAVY CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

THE MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD GIVEN THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
PERSISTANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW STRONG POSITIVE ADVECTION OF WET BULB
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
INCOMING FRONT. CONSIDERING HOW SUCH PATTERNS FAVOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS IS MUCH MORE IN ACCORD WITH THE WET MET POPS THAN
THE DRIER MAV.  HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING PRECIPITABLE
WATER.

DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN RAPIDLY AFTER THE FRONT AND BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

THE MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK OK TONIGHT CONSIDERING WHAT HAS BEEN
HAPPENING IN THIS AIR. FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS. A MET MAV CONSENSUS
WILL BE USED TO TRY TO GET THE BEST FROM BOTH.

AFTER TOMORROW THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURES WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN GIVEN
THE BASIC THERMAL PATTERNS...AND WET GR

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER.
MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA.
SOME MODELS INDICATE A DRY AND VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND MOST MODELS BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
OUR WAY TOWARDS DAY 7.  WILL MENTION LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MOST AREAS MONDAY WITH THIS
2ND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A SUPER BLEND HPC MIX.  HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
REST OF THE TIME.

AREAS OF MVFR FOG WERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE
AT A FEW OUTLING SITES.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.  THEN EXPECT VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS.

AN ISOLATED CB POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION.

MVFR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OUR WAY BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS.  WILL MENTION VCTS
AT KLAF AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.  BUT OTHER SITES WILL NOT SEE
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH


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