Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 100046
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
846 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN...A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. FINALLY...IT WILL
BE DRY AND COOL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH A DRY COLUMN...SHOULD ONLY SEE FEW
DIURNAL CU WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

12Z MOS WAS VERY CLOSE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AND A CONSENSUS MATCHES UP WELL WITH ALLBLEND WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER 60S OVER THE CITY AND ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.
RAIN WONT BE IN THE FORECAST BEFORE FRIDAY NIGHT.  NEITHER THE
EUROPEAN MODEL OR THE GFS HAS ANY QPF FRIDAY. THE NAM HAS A LITTLE
QPF BUT STABLE LIFTED INDICES AND ZERO CAPE. NO INSTABILITY STRONGLY
ARGUES AGAINST AN EARLY START TO PRECIPITATION.

FRIDAY NIGHT POPS FROM THE NAM MOS BECOME HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM THE
GFS. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP SATURATION OVER
THE AREA AND BOTH DEVELOP POSITIVE ADVECTION OF EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE AT LOW LEVELS. GIVEN SEVERAL PHYSICAL FIELDS
CONSISTENT WITH RAIN THE WETTER MET POPS LOOK MORE LOGICAL. A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS
MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE MOS FROM THE DIFFERENT MODELS IS CLOSE AND
HAS BEEN STABLE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL USE A CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

ANALYSIS OF 500 MB ANAMOLIES FROM THE ECMWF INDICATED MUCH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEARLY 175 METERS BELOW
NORMAL WHICH INDIATES THAT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS AGREE WITH THIS TREND
AS DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KLAF/KHUF/KBMG LATE TONIGHT
AS TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...TDUD

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