Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271914
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

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