Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 050434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BY THURSDAY EVENING
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
IN AND MEANDER AROUND...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD
AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST CLOSER TO THE UPPER SYSTEM.

ENDED UP WITH CHANCE POPS EAST 2/3 WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST
THIRD TONIGHT. WENT HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH LINGERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT...BUT FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH
TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...SO KEPT THE MORNING
DRY. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE TO GO A BIT FASTER...SO MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO ADD POPS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE EXTENDED AS IT
OSCILLATES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

INITIAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY ESTABLISH ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL PROMPT THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL A
SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND KICKS THE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RESUMPTION OF THE WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODIC
CONVECTIVE THREATS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
A COOLER DAY WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR OR
WORSE...MAINLY AT IND...LAF AND BMG AS AN UPPER LOW OVERSOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA SLIDES SOUTH TO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE...ENOUGH SO THAT WILL
PULL OUT SHOWERS FROM THE TAFS AFTER 11Z. HUF SHOULD BE DRY ALL
NIGHT...HOWEVER.

WILL MENTION GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME
IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH 14Z OR SO. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS
BREAK UP LATE IN THE DAY.

NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...MK


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