Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 032301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...RYAN

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