Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
230 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure is expected to remain across the area for the next
couple of days. A frontal system will be affecting the area
towards the middle of the week. Another frontal system may
affect the area over next weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Patch of clouds is drifting south across the area at the moment, and
additional cloud cover may sneak down later this morning. These will
dissipate this afternoon. Adjusted sky cover to match these trends.

Tweaked high temperatures in a couple of areas but made no
significant changes at this time.

Previous discussion follows...

Inactive front currently dropping south through the area. This front
should clear the southern zones by daybreak. Dry conditions expected
today as surface high pressure builds into the area from the

Could be some clouds today from moisture flowing off of Lake
Michigan, especially over the northern zones, but probably won`t be
too extensive given the overall dry air mass.

Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs today.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Model data suggest the weather feature during this period will be an
upper air trough, and associated frontal system, that is expected
to move through the local area Wednesday night. Should begin to see
a gradual increase in mid and high level cloud cover as early as
late tonight, although at this point, it appears the main lift and
precipitation threat will hold off until Wednesday.

Warm and moist advection appears to be rather robust by Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with models suggesting a 35-45kt low level
jet in the area. Based on above, will keep the forecast dry through
Tuesday night, and bring in rather high PoPs for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFs MOS
temperature guidance through the period, with the exception being
the highs on Wednesday. These look a little on the cool side,
especially over the north. Will raise the guidance highs on
Wednesday a category in those areas.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Transient upper flow persists through much of the extended with
several waves lifting up and over the ridge centered across the
Rockies. This will keep much of the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley within a northwest flow regime through the weekend with
heights rising early next week as the ridge shifts east.

Most of the waves aloft tracking across the northern part of the
country will be far enough north to only impact the forecast area
with periodic clouds. The only exception is with the strongest
system passing through during the period...set to track across the
Great Lakes Friday night with a trailing cold front sweeping
through the region. Bulk of the forcing aloft remains well north
of the area but presence of the front and a modest low level jet
should support at least the threat for a few showers accompanying
the front. Once the front passes...high pressure will reestablish
for the weekend into early next week. Highs will remain near
normal throughout the extended.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 241800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions expected throughout the period.

Cool N/NE flow into the region early this afternoon as high
pressure expands out of the upper Midwest. Bulk of the lower
clouds focused to the northeast of the region...but a scattered cu
field has developed over parts of the northern half of the forecast
area in the vicinity of an 850mb thermal trough. This will move
off to the east by late day with cu gradually diminishing in

The rest of the forecast will see just passing mid and high level
clouds as the high settles across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
by Tuesday. Winds will remain northerly overnight before veering
to more of an easterly direction after daybreak Tuesday.





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