Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281424
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1022 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper ridge of high pressure will keep warmer than normal
temperatures over the area for the next few days. Small chances
for thunderstorms will continue off and on until Wednesday night
when surface high pressure builds in behind a cold front that will
bring cooler and drier air with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Patchy fog will occur across the area through an hour or so after
daybreak with a decent temperature inversion and dew point
depressions of 0 to 2 degrees. Shortly after daybreak sunshine
should mix out any fog. Then focus turns to chances for
thunderstorms.

With upper ridging over the area and no forcing mechanism, looks
like the only thunderstorms today would be those diurnally
generated with the hot humid air mass. Best chances will be this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances. Not much available for
forcing through the period under increasing influence of the upper
ridge. Diurnal influence will wane tonight so kept a slight chance
going initially but dropped to dry late tonight. Again went with
low chances on Monday, with a dry pop in the northeast as surface high
pressure builds from the north. Expect dry weather Monday night
and for most of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night under the
subsidence of the surface high. Could see slight chance in the
west Tuesday and late Tuesday night where subsidence will be the
weakest. Temperatures should continue to run warmer than normal
with the upper ridge producing mostly sunny to partly cloudy
conditions and the front stalled north of the area keeping humid
conditions in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Tired of the sweat? The Heat? The Humidity? If so, this section
of the forecast is for you.

ECWMF suggests a weak short wave along with a cool front will
sweep across the Great Lakes and Central Indiana on
Wednesday....and this will be the last chance for precip until at
least Saturday. Minimal forcing appears available as this short
wave passes...however there is a good change of air mass as
Canadian high pressure will build across the Ohio valley through
the end of the work week. Models show amplifying high pressure
aloft along with high pressure in place at the surface and
excellent mid level drying and subsidence. Dew points amid the NE
surface flow fall in to the 50 and low 60s...resulting in less
humid temps. Overall...have kept low chances provided by
superblend on Wednesday as the weak front passes. Then have
trended toward a dry forecast through Saturday with Strong High
pressure in place. High temperatures look to fall at or below
normals by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 281500z IND Taf Update/...
Issued at 1022 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Only minor tweaks needed to winds and sky cover. VFR to continue.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 604 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

MVFR/IFR Fog this morning is expected to quickly burn off as
heating and mixing resumes...returning conditions to VFR by mid
morning.

Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates with convective temps in
the middle 80s this afternoon. Expect Sct Convection to develop
with bases near 3500ft. Have used VCTS to account for this. As
heating is lost within the warm moist column tonight...any
convection will wane...leading to just continued VFR conditions.

Once again dew point depressions become very small overnight...and
MVFR/IFR Fog will once again be expected on Monday morning near
sunrise.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK



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