Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290415
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

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