Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 172255
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
555 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...

The Aviation sections has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

The pattern will start out relatively benign in the beginning with
just some rain chances across the northern and eastern counties
tonight as an upper low passes over the lower Great Lakes Region.
As this low passes to the east, high pressure will quickly build
into central Indiana behind it, resulting in dry conditions for
Wednesday. After that, the pattern becomes more active when the
first of several low pressure systems approaches from the
southwest on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

The main focus of the near term period will be a quick short wave
in the upper levels that could bring some rain showers to northern
and eastern portions of the forecast area tonight.

Current radar mosaic is quiet and should remain that way for the
remainder of the afternoon. However, time cross sections indicate
a quick burst of forcing and moisture in the mid and upper levels
around Wed 00Z which correlates well with passage of
aforementioned short wave. As a result, will continue to trend
toward the slight chance and chance pops that latest Superblend
initialization is producing.

Dry conditions will quickly return after Wed 06Z and prevail
through the end of the night as lift and moisture taper off.
Meanwhile, overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid
30s, which was captured best with a blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Friday/...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be the first of
several systems progged to affect central Indiana starting
Thursday.

First, dry conditions will prevail tomorrow with a brief period of
ridging over the area. However, focus then quickly turns to a
surface low quickly approaching from the southwest followed by an
upper low over the Central Plains. Rain showers will start
spreading over the southwestern portions of central Indiana on
Thursday morning with that surface low, eventually becoming
widespread over the entire forecast area by Thursday afternoon.
However, isentropic lift will intensify further on Thursday night
as the trailing upper low provides additional forcing. So, likely
and definite pops seem reasonable during the Fri 00-12Z time
frame. As these disturbances push farther east on Friday, rain
will taper off from west to east across central Indiana.

Temperatures through the period will continue to be well above
normal as warm air is drawn up ahead of the surface low. Highs
will climb into the 50s once again by Thursday and Friday with
lows initially in the 30s (Wednesday night) and then 40s by
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night Through Monday night/...
Issued at 141 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Well above normal temperatures and period rain showers will be
featured this weekend and early next week. Models are in pretty good
agreement on the overal synoptic features, so regional blend looks
good.

Negatively-tilted upper trough will be over the lower Great Lakes
Friday night, and a trailing upper low will lift north over the
Plains, well west of the forecast area. This should result in mostly
dry weather over central Indiana through Saturday. Still, would not
rule out a stray shower or two Saturday with good return flow and
impulses in southwest flow aloft. After that, a strong southern
Plains upper low will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley on
Monday. This will bring more shower chances to the area starting
Saturday night. Activity will be widespread over some locales by
Sunday and start to decrease in coverage Monday night in the wake of
the system.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 555 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Low end MVFR ceilings will likely deteriorate to IFR for at least a
portion of the night at all sites.

Conditions will likely improve late morning into early afternoon
tomorrow across the area, with a return to VFR expected around 18-
20Z.

Winds will generally be out of the west from 250-280 around 5-11KT
throughout the period.

While brief periods of slightly reduced visibilities in patchy fog
cannot be entirely ruled out, unrestricted visibilities should be
the rule at all sites as low clouds prevent widespread fog.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD



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