Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190734
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
234 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

High pressure will keep dry weather over central Indiana into the
weekend, and warming temperatures through the weekend. A frontal
system will bring some chances for rain Saturday night through
Monday, with some potential for a wintry mix Monday night as
cooler more seasonable air moves back in behind a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

High pressure centered over the Gulf coast will keep skies clear
through the overnight. A tight pressure gradient across the area
will keep winds from dropping off too much. Warm advection will
continue tonight, so lows should be warmer than the last few days.
Leaned toward cooler end of guidance (upper teens) with recent
verification trends and still some snow cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Upper ridge of high pressure will keep conditions dry and high
pressure centered southeast of the area will keep a warm advection
pattern in place for the next few days. This will allow
temperatures to warm a few more degrees each day, with highs in
the mid 40s to around 50 by Sunday. All that warm advection will
bring a warm front near/through the area Saturday night and
Sunday, which will bring some chances for rain to central Indiana
during that time. High confidence in dry weather Friday through
Saturday morning, with medium confidence of light rain late
Saturday night into Sunday. High confidence in warming
temperatures throughout the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...

Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

A strong and occluding low pressure system over Missouri and Iowa
will sweep a shield of rain across Indiana Monday. Models still
suppress instability in our area and thunder does not seem to be
in the picture. A blended solution for rain timing is used as
models still differ a bit. The dry slot behind the deep layered
moisture may still be showery and somewhat cloudy with a lot of
mixing taking place. Model blend temperatures around 50 Monday in
clouds and rain appears reasonable.

This system through warmth and rain will melt any remaining snow
but the wrap around comma head that comes across the area Monday
night into early Tuesday may lay down another light blanket of snow.
Regardless of any new snow, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry
with near seasonal temperatures and should easily melt any new
snow.

A return to southwest flow on the backside of high pressure
Thursday will continue the dry warmup bringing temperatures above
normal with highs in the 40s and lows not far from freezing. The
next weather system in line renews a threat for rain showers by
late week and the weekend with again a changeover to snow before
ending.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1144 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period
with high pressure over the region. The only threat will continue
to be low level wind shear potential at times throughout most of
the TAF period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Tucek
AVIATION...TDUD



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