Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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098
FXUS63 KIND 221503
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1003 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Warm conditions will continue through Friday, when a brief return to
normal temperatures for the weekend. Warmer air looks to make a
comeback next week. A series of frontal systems will keep periodic
chances for precipitation the next week. One of them will be a
strong cold front on Friday, which could bring strong to severe
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1002 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Widespread dense fog continues over about the western half of the
forecast area. This morning`s upper air suggest the moisture layer
is quite shallow, so should see conditions improve over the next
couple of hours. Will extend the Dense Fog Advisory in time until
221700Z, and also add Tipton and Howard counties based on current
observations.

Will keep the forecast highs as is for now, as upper air
observations generally support them. If low clouds and fog linger
longer than expected, highs will probably be too warm.

Previous discussion follows.

Patchy fog continues to develop across the area this morning, but so
far the cloud cover is keeping most visibilities in check. Will
likely need to mention fog early in the period.

The area will remain in between systems today, so the forecast will
be dry. However, there looks to be a good amount of cloud cover
today. Time-height sections show plenty of low level moisture, and
forecast soundings show an inversion as well.

Thus will keep skies mostly cloudy this morning, with some partial
decrease in the afternoon.

By going with more clouds today, will stick with a blend of
temperatures, which keeps highs in the mid to upper 60s. If more
sunshine appears, the temperatures will warm quickly and could reach
the lower 70s. However, would rather be pessimistic about
temperatures and have reality exceed them than forecast record
temperatures and not get there. (Indy`s record high today is 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday night/
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

A cold front will move into northwest Indiana late tonight. Most
forcing with it will be well to the north closer to a northern
stream upper wave. Thus will keep the forecast dry tonight.

The front will sink farther into the forecast area Thursday morning,
but again forcing is weak. During the afternoon, flow aloft
increases from the south. This will create lift and allow for some
low PoPs Thursday afternoon.

As the flow continues to increase Thursday night, forcing will
increase and allow for higher PoPs, but still no higher than the
chance category. Highest PoPs will be across northern sections,
along and north of the now warm front as it moves north.

On Friday, a surface low will deepen well to our northwest, and a
cold front will move through the area. Moisture will be decent
thanks to a good southerly flow (850mb near 50kt). Looks like there
will be enough shear and instability for some strong to severe
storms, especially if sunshine can break through the clouds. The
initialization`s likely PoPs look good.

PoPs will be high Friday night as the upper trough moves through.
Highest PoPs will be in the evening. Much colder air will flow in as
well, with lows in the 30s by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 155 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Mainly dry weather but colder weather will kick off the weekend
as ECMWF suggests high pressure will be building across the region
in the wake of a departed cold front. This will result in dry and
colder weather for the weekend. By Monday afternoon...the ECMWF
suggests the surface high will have drifted east of Indiana and
return flow will begin once again. A warm front looks to push
toward Indiana On Monday afternoon and Tuesday as another strong
low pressure system builds across the Central Plains. This will
once again bring chances for precipitation back to Central Indiana
for the first part of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /Update to TAFs/...

Issued at 929 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

IFR or LIFR fog and/or ceilings remain at TAF sites as residual
low level moisture has been slow to mix. Expect improvement in
fog to vfr by 1600z while IFR cloud decks raise to MVFR decks by
around 1600z but not to VFR before 1900-2000z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>047-051>054-060>063-067>070.

Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for INZ031-038.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...Tucek



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