Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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185
FXUS63 KIND 232022
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
422 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances
of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday
weekend as various upper waves move across the area. Temperatures
will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will continue to provide mostly clear to clear skies
through the night. Winds will be light again. With these conditions
went again closer the MOS numbers for low temperatures, which
performed well last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough with the big picture, and uncertainty high enough in the
details, that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and the surface high will keep Tuesday warm and dry.

Beginning Tuesday night, a few upper impulses will move across the
area during the short term. Models, as is typical, differ on timing
and impact of these impulses as they move through. Thus will not try
and get too detailed in PoPs Wednesday on.

The atmosphere should take a while to moisten up Tuesday night, and
better forcing should not arrive until the latter part of the night.
Thus only went slight chance PoPs during the evening, with chance
PoPs overnight.

Went chance pops Wednesday through Thursday, since the uncertainty
precludes going any higher.

Generally stuck with a blend on temperatures. Of course temperatures
could be cooler or even a little warmer during the afternoons
depending on convection (or lack thereof).

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/2100Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 416 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

UPDATE...
No changes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR conditions will remain in place during this taf period.

High pressure and associated subsidence will remain across the taf
sites through the course of the TAF period. Forecast soundings and
time height sections show a dry column. Convective temps show
reachable values on Tuesday...thus have trended toward some SCT VFR
CU then.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/TDUD



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