000
FXUS63 KIND 161810
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
210 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
START THE WEEKEND ON A WET NOTE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEPART THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...HOWEVER A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF HUF TO NEAR ANDERSON AND MUNCIE. OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA HAVE
BROUGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE INDY ALONG WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN CHANCES. SEVERAL
FAVORABLE ELEMENTS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FORCING. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE INDICATES PLENTY
OF MOISTURE BUT MINIMAL LIFT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL STILL PROVIDE
SOME FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THUS WILL RAISE POPS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DIURNAL FORCING WILL SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL AIM FOR HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LESSER POPS FOUND NORTH ACROSS THE
LAF..OKK AREAS.

GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...WILL TREND TEMPS TOWARD
PERSISTENCE OR GENERALLY WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY QUITE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN MEANDERING IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. MEANWHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY HINT AT DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S
WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN
RAISE POPS AND GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL TREND
HIGHS TOWARD EXPECTED PERSISTENCE.

ONCE AGAIN LINGERING MOISTURE...HEATING AND FORCING WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTION SET-UP CHANGES. ONCE AGAIN
FORCING FROM HEATING WILL WANE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN IDEAL POSITION AS IT SLOWLY PASSES ACROSS
INDIANA. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ALONG
WITH WARMER LOWS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FINALLY BEGIN TO HINT AT SOME DRYING WORKING
INTO THE COLUMN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL TREND POPS
LOWER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
FINALLY BEINGS TO DEPART THE AREA BUT WILL STILL KEEP POPS CLOSE
TO MAVMOS FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AND STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. MINIMAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OCCURS AS THE LOW DEPARTS AS YET ANOTHER
LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE AND A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON REVEAL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 G/KG.
THUS WILL KEEP MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DRY...BUT
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL
INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUND SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
MEMBERS LIFT THIS SYSTEM INTO CANADA...RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. OTHERS CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF OVER THE MIDWEST...WHILE
STILL OTHERS TAKE THIS ENERGY ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIG IT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TAKING ALL THE VARYING SOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT...AN ARGUMENT COULD BE
MADE FOR POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY AND FINE TINE THINGS LATER AS THE DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE AND A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE THAT APPEARS TO BE MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AXIS IS SHIFTING
SOUTH OF KIND...SO EXPECTING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF A DIRECT
CONVECTIVE IMPACT WILL BE AT KHUF/KBMG...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KIND. DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KLAF
AS FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THAT AREA.
OVERALL...CONVECTION SHOULD PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND BY 162000Z-162100Z AS VORTICITY CENTER MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES
025-030.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 050. COULD BE SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP DUE TO FOG TOWARDS
170600Z...ESPECIALLY OVER KHUF/KBMG WHERE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

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