Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230732
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
330 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Elongated west-east mid/upper level trough centered over MO will
swing southeastward through tonight into TN extending southwest
into LA. Water Vapor imagery shows that southwest IN is now being
dry slotted at mid levels which is pushing any leftover
precipitation eastward. High pressure from the Plains into the
southwestern Great Lakes will clear our skies out after midnight
across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Clouds continues to decrease overall, but a band of high clouds will
continue to work south across the area into the overnight. Also,
some mid cloud will sneak into the far southwest. Thus feel partly
cloudy at least into the early overnight should still work.

However, with the earlier overall decrease of clouds, feel
temperatures will get a little lower than previously thought. Thus
nudged down lows a bit. Far northern areas may get cold enough for a
frost threat, but feel that winds will stay up enough to mitigate
the threat.

Previous discussion follows...

With precipitation moving out of the southern parts of our forecast
area this evening and skies clearing as High pressure moves into the
region, expect temperatures to fall into the lower-mid 40s from
north to south across the area. Only some lingering mid level clouds
should remain across our southern counties towards morning with
lightening northeasterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure will extend from the south central Great Lakes
southward into the lower MS valley keeping the area dry and
pleasant for the next few days. We will be between storm systems,
in fact with one moving up the east coast, and the next weather
system for us developing over the High Plains. Temperatures will
be around normal for Sunday with highs in the mid 60s/lows in the
mid 40s, then warm up a little each day into Tuesday with highs in
the low-mid 70s and lows around 50 degrees.

&&

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Model ensembles indicate a short wave trough will lift across the
middle Mississippi valley and great lakes late Wednesday and
Wednesday night with a trailing cold front pushing across Indiana
early Thursday.  This will be followed by another system which will
affect our weather over the weekend.

Will raise POPS a little Wednesday night as the cold front moves
through. Showers may linger in the east Thursday morning. Then mostly
dry and a little cooler rest of Thursday.

Models indicate a warm front will develop across Indiana by Friday
as another low pressure system deepens over the central plains.
This will result in an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday.

Wednesday will be quite warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.
Then cooler Thursday after the cold front moves through and then
warming up again over the weekend.   Tweaked Superblend temperatures
a little warmer Wednesday and Saturday and slightly cooler Thursday.

Otherwise...no significant changes made to temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 230600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Dry air at the low levels will continue to flow into the area on
northeast winds. Thus only high clouds at times are expected.

Sustained winds will be less than 15kt through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DWM
NEAR TERM...DWM/50
SHORT TERM...DWM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...50


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