Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 252333
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...BRINGING A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW LATE
TODAY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER A COLD
START ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
BY THURSDAY AND COOL A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND COLDER AIR WAS BEING PULLED SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS CARMEL AND
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN THE INDY METRO AREA IN A FEW HOURS.

IR SATELLITE INDICATES A DEFORMATION ZONE WAS ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA...WHILE ANOTHER ONE MAY BE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH. WEATHER
DEPICTION INDICATED SNOW WAS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  IT STILL APPEARS THAT OUR FAR NORTHEAST WILL SEE
HIGHEST TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO JUST OVER 3 INCHES FROM MUNCIE EAST TO
RANDOLPH COUNTY...WHILE 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE THE RULE WEST IN THE
KOKOMO AREA.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS
WINDS INCREASE WILL PRODUCE ADVERSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS COLDER AIR
IS PULLED SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FROM KOKOMO EAST THROUGH RANDOLPH COUNTY
TO MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...AROUND AN INCH IN THE
INDY METRO AREA AND A HALF INCH OF LESS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.  SOUTHWEST SECTIONS MAY SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE SOUTH BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT BY THAT TIME PRECIPITATION IS JUST ABOUT OVER.

PRECIPITATION WILL END ALL AREAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES
LOWS LATE TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 20S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THROUGH THE REGION.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT VERY COOL AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. NICE AXIS OF FORCING
ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 12-1 RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO FALL. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO TUESDAY MORNING.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP TUESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING. KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAVMOS ON HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.  BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE SHOWS NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS WARMING ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN FOR MOST OF THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...BUT MORE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY...BUT THEN COOL TO BELOW
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IFR IS GENERALLY THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY AT THIS TIME...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP IS IMPACTING ALL TAF
SITES AND HAS ALREADY MADE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT
KLAF AND KIND. ELSEWHERE...THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOULD
COMMENCE AT KHUF WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND AT KBMG
WITHIN 3 TO 4 HOURS.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MON 06Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR CATEGORY BY MON 08Z. HELD ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING TOMORROW AND THEN RETURNED TO VFR CATEGORY AROUND LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 12 TO 16 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF AROUND MON 09Z. AFTER
THAT...THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH
THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ031-
038-040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...TDUD

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