Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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559
FXUS63 KIND 221330
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
930 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Chances for showers and storms will increase from south to north
throughout the day as Cindy remnants move north. Expect to see
rainfall late Thursday night and through much of Friday as this
system provides ample moisture and another frontal system provides
additional forcing. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times,
especially across the southern counties. Cooler drier air will move
in Friday night and stay through the weekend, with a warming trend
next week but little in the way of precip chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 930 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Broad high pressure in place across Indiana and the east coast
will continue to provide mainly dry weather late this morning and
early this afternoon. GOES16 shows an area of clouds and moisture
over Kentucky and Tennessee...associated wit the initial remnants
of Cindy...surging northward. HRRR suggests bets chances for
precipitation will be across the far south eastern parts of the
forecast area this afternoon as this moisture arrives. Thus have
trended pops lower this morning...while we wait for the moisture
to arrive.

Given the amount of sunshine expected across the northern area of
the state...trended highs a bit warmer north of I-70...closer to
persistence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Most models are in agreement showing a lull in forcing and rainfall
early tonight. Later during the overnight though all seem to be
keying on the arrival of better forcing and deeper layer moisture,
lasting from during the overnight until late Friday afternoon.
During the day Friday a cold front will move through the forecast
area to provide additional forcing to interact the moisture, and by
Friday evening it looks like the cold front will merge with the
surface low left from Cindy and move off to the east Friday night,
bringing an end to the rain. Saturday through Saturday night looks
dry and cooler.

As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, the 0z runs introduced
lower confidence by showing more variability than previous runs. The
ECMWF puts significant rainfall amounts (2 to 4+ inches) across the
entire area by Friday afternoon, while the GFS keeps the heavy axis
south of the area and the NAM brings a swath of around 2+ inches
along the southern border. Blended initialization gives a little
more than 2 inches storm total on the southern border with around an
inch central and lesser amounts north, and plan to stick with this
for now. Given those totals, have no plans for flood headlines at
this time, but hopefully the 12z suite will bring a better cluster
to solutions and have higher confidence in amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Models continue to trend toward a drier forecast for the extended
period. The only chances for a few showers and thunderstorms will be
on Sunday and Monday afternoons, mainly over the northern counties,
as a few upper waves move through the area. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions throughout the extended period with a gradual warming
trend. Highs will start out in the 70s on Sunday and Monday,
eventually topping off in the low to mid 80s by Wednesday.
Meanwhile, overnight lows will increase from the mid 50s on Sunday
night to low/mid 60s by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/1200Z TAFs/...

Issued at 724 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase from south to
north through the course of the TAF period as remnants of Cindy
move closer to central Indiana. Conditions will start out at VFR
levels, but expect conditions to deteriorate to MVFR category by
this evening and possibly even IFR tonight. Meanwhile, winds will
be south/southwesterly at 5 to 11 kts except this afternoon when
they increase to sustained speeds of 12 to 15 kts with gusts up to
22 kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD



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