Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251812
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
212 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

High pressure along the New England coast will dominate our weather
through most of Wednesday.  Low pressure over the central plains
will move into the great lakes late Wednesday and a trailing cold
front will move east across Indiana late Wednesday night and early
Thursday.

Another low pressure system and associated frontal systems will
affect our weather late this week and the through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Satelitte indicated an area of low clouds has spread across a large
part of east central Indiana...while only high thin clouds were the
rule elsewhere.  These clouds may be an issue over eastern sections
this morning as some low level moisture has worked into the region.
These clouds will mix out by midday and mostly sunny skies will be
the rule this afternoon.

Overall quiet weather will occur through tonight with nigh pressure
off the new England coast and another ridge of high pressure
extending south from the Ohio valley.  Model soundings indicate
there will be increasing clouds over west and northwest sections
later tonight ahead of next system.

Highs today will range from the lower and middle 70s over northeast
sections to almost 80 southwest.   Lows tonight will range from the
middle and upper 50s east to near 60 west.  In most cases stayed
close to a MOS blend on temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Low pressure over the upper midwest early Thursday will track into
the great lakes by Thursday and a trailing cold front will move east
across Indiana late Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Wednesday will be quite warm and mostly dry with an increasing
southerly flow across Indiana.   Models indicate 850 MB temperatures
from +13 to +16 and highs will reach the upper 70s over northwest
sections and lower 80s central and southeast half.  Could see some
middle 80s southeast.

Models have trended a little slower in spreading precipitation
chances our way and will only see a slight chance of storms far west
late Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday night as a cold front
approaches from the west.  The NAM seems to be the slow outlier as
it brings it only into our west Wednesday night and across the rest
of our region Thursday.  Most other models are a little faster and
will go with a GFS...Euro and Canadian blend with the bulk of the
rain occurring over western sections later Wednesday night and
central and eastern sections Thursday morning.   Will go with likely
POPS for these areas.    Will end showers from the west Thursday
afternoon as the cold front moves to the east and a weak high
pressure ridge builds in late Thursday and Thursday night.   Will
mention a chance of thunder Wednesday night with MU capes of 1,000
J/KG and a slight chance east half Thursday morning.   Thursday
night will be dry with a weak ridge of high pressure across our area.

Superblend temperatures are a bit too warm Thursday with clouds and
precipitation early Thursday and cold advection.  Otherwise...went
close to a MOS blend on temperatures most other periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

ECMWF suggests active weather ongoing on Friday night through
Sunday night. The lower levels feature a stalled frontal boundary
lingering across Indiana through at least Sunday. Meanwhile Low
pressure begins to develop in the central plains states along
with a strong upper wave suggested to arrive on Sunday. With Warm
and moist southerly flow headed into the Ohio Valley Through The
weekend...good moisture will be available for precip. For
now...the ECMWF suggests a weak wave passing on Saturday and due
to the poor organization....confidence here is low. However best
forcing really appears on Sunday afternoon/evening with expected
frontal passage. Confidence with this second system is much
higher.

The ECMWF suggests the upper low pulls quickly northeast on late
sunday night along with the cold front pushing well to the east.
This should bring about dry and cooler weather for the start of
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 251800Z TAFs/...

Issued at 1234 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

VFR Conditions will continue this period.

Weak high pressure across the area will remain in place through
the period. Forecast soundings and time height sections remain
dry. Models suggest that stronger forcing associated with an
approaching front will begin to push in to the area after 00Z
Thursday...at which point we should begin to see a deterioration
of flying conditions.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP



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