000
FXUS63 KIND 170751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES.  WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
LATER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THE
PLAINS. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MOVE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE CAPES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST A CAP WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING.

AREAS OF FOG WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING
WITH HALF MILE VISIBILITIES AT BLOOMINGTON.  INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG...BUT NERVELESS WILL CONTINUE PATCHY EARLY FOG
ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS BASED ON
850 MP TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +16 ACROSS OUR AREA AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY.  ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE.  AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.

THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH  TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STILL A FEW 3000-4000FT CLOUDS AT SOME SITES...BUT MOSTLY JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...OVER AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE OUTLYING SITES DROPPING
INTO IFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY BMG WHICH IS HISTORICALLY A FOGGY
SITE...BUT CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY TOOLS INDICATE MVFR IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY THAN IFR CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR AND
EXPECTED WIND CONDITIONS...AND SREF PROBABILITIES FOR IFR ARE LOW.
HOWEVER...AS BMG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
IFR PERIOD THERE AROUND DAYBREAK.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO
EXCLUDE FROM TAFS. SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...NIELD/CP

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