Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE END TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT THEN THERE
IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE RETURN OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS.

THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT LAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE THE COOLEST AIR OVERNIGHT.

THUS WENT MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING ALL AREAS THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN MAV IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND COULD BE USED.

ANY STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT AS WARMER AIR RETURNS
TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE SLOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OF RAIN OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOWS.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT FEEL THAT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE POPS BEFORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS LIFT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST WENT CHANCE POPS THERE.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECENT LIFT.
WENT CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY MORNING WENT LIKELY POPS EAST AND
CHANCE POPS WEST. LOWERED POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH FRONT
EXITING THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS COLD ADVECTION
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH 1000-500 MILLIBAR
THICKNESSES FROM 5370 TO 5400 METERS AND 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES 0
TO 2 BELOW CELSIUS AT 12Z SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
THEN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
EMBEDDED WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES RIDGE ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO CONSENSUS ON
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE FRONT. THUS...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
ON TIMING OF SHOWERS...WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND WITH
SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG UPPER SUBSIDENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR DISSIPATING THIN LOW
STRATOCU DECK LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO. BLOOMINGTON MAY BE THE ONLY SITE TO HOLD ON TO IFR
DECK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS WERE SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH A STRONG
INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS...WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE CITY WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP IND FROM
FOGGING UP AS BAD.

SHOULD ONLY SEE CIRRUS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO AROUND 6 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

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