Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 121348
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING WARM AND HUMID AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS WELL AS CREATING CHANCES FOR RAIN. COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS WILL COME WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE WABASH VALLEY WAS VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST...BUT DIMINISHING UPON APPROACH. A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
WAS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S. RAPID REFRESH PROPAGATES THE COMPLEX EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THUS HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE EAST WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH LAST.

ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INSTABILITY INCREASES BY LATE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE CONTINUED A LOW CHC POPS
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POP UP SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THEREFORE
ACTIVITY COULD BE PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. LEFT IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

BEST CHANCES FOR POPS COME SUNDAY AS A FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...GOOD INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AND A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
ALL AREAS SUNDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

POPS SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
MODELS NOT AS ROBUST WITH SECONDARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND CUT BACK ON
POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR MASS WILL ENGULF THE REGION.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING UPPER TROUGHING ANCHORED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

APPEARS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA DUE TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE SHORT TERM...SO THINK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AREA OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER ILLINOIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPR WAVE THAT SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE INTENSIFYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
AND THE FACT THAT IT IS TIED TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SUGGESTS THIS
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING.
BASED ON ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE APPROACHING KLAF/KHUF BY ISSUANCE TIME...AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AROUND 121700Z. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. CB BASES 040-050.

ONCE UPPER WAVE PASSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SHOULD DIMINISH DUE TO A LACK OF A TRIGGER...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
MODEL DATA SUGGEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA
MAY TURN SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON QUESTIONABLE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CEILINGS BY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ABOVE 050...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER 030-050.

SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO 200-220 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

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