Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270217
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1017 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation sections updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A surface and upper level trough will move through the area this
afternoon and this evening, perhaps bringing a spotty shower or
thunderstorm to portions of the area. Beyond this, dry weather
will be the rule through at least Wednesday as surface high
pressure moves through the area. Thunderstorm chances will return
beginning Wednesday night and continuing into the weekend as a
frontal system moves into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 919 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Vorticity lobe currently dropping south through central Indiana.
Some diminishing shower activity associated with this feature.
Short term models suggest this vorticity lobe will pass off to the
south by 270600Z, so will cutoff PoPs at that time.

Some convection over northwest Indiana, possibly associated with
a lake breeze boundary, may drift into the far northern zones
before dissipating over the next few hours.

Previous discussion follows.

Water vapor imagery clearly shows a compact upper level low over
Lake Michigan this afternoon. This has begun to spark widely
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over northern Illinois
and Indiana, and these will likely make their way into central
Indiana late this afternoon and this evening. Decent shear is
present but instability is minimal at best. Thus, expect coverage
and intensity of these showers and storms to peak this afternoon
into early evening and wane quickly with loss of daytime heating.
Will carry low pops and go dry from 06Z onward.

Consensus temperatures appeared slightly too warm given expected
dewpoints tonight and made minor downward adjustments. Would not
be surprised to see northern portions of the area make the upper
40s just before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dry weather will dominate into Wednesday as a strong surface high
moves through the area. The next frontal system will begin to
approach Wednesday night, and will have to reintroduce pops then,
ramping them up late Wednesday night into Thursday as the boundary
pushes toward the area.

Temps will steadily warm throughout the short term, going from
well below normal Tuesday to back near seasonal normals by
Thursday as heights build across the area. Consensus numbers
captured this well and were generally accepted.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Chances for rain and storms will be the rule through much of the
long term as an upper low slowly makes its way from Saskatchewan
through the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes. This will
send a series of upper waves through central Indiana as well as a
frontal system that will slowly move through the area as surface low
pressure moves along it. Could see some dry conditions Saturday
night into Sunday as the aforementioned front moves south and east
of the area, but greater model variability on frontal placement
makes confidence of a completely dry period low. Temperatures should
be near normal with little variability as the main upper pattern and
thicknesses remain relatively unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 270300Z IND Taf Update/...

VFR Conditions continue. Radar trends have shown the dissipation
of the shra/tsra as they moved southeast and are no longer a
threat to TAF sites. Thus all mention of VCSH has been removed. No
other significant changes.

Previous Discussion below

/Discussion for the 270000Z Tafs/...

Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR Conditions are expected this TAF Period.

Radar shows weak area of showers NW of the IND that will quickly
pass across the Taf sites within the first hour of the TAF period.
These diurnally driven showers are expected to weaken toward
dissipation as they progress southeastward and daytime heating is
lost.

High pressure will remain across the area Overnight and on
Tuesday...resulting in unlimited CIGs. Forecast soundings show a
dry column and the return of the mid level inversion which should
prevent any deep convection on Tuesday afternoon. Once again
forecast soundings suggest convective temps may be
reached...however CONSSHORT fails to develop any CU. However GFS
does do very good mid level subsidence and drying. This all adds
up to VFR.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP



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