Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 202329
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
729 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING
THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER. HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HOWEVER..WEAK WAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THAT RIDGE...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT STALLS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. MOST
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STARTS SHIFTING
NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER THU 06Z AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE DUE TO THIS
FRONT...AS OPPOSED TO POSSIBLE MCS FROM WISCONSIN AS MODELS WERE
INDICATING IN EARLIER RUNS. AS A RESULT...REMOVED MENTION OF
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CLOUD COVER DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S TONIGHT. THE NAM SEEMED TO BE
OVER DOING CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS OF THE GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS HOT TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE TOMORROW AS WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND FRONT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE FRONT WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...CARRIED LIKELY POPS OVER
THAT AREA TOMORROW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL
DRIFT ALONG THE RIDGE...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

TEMPS...THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WILL COMMENCE DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

 MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER THIS SEASON
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY THIS WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AND THEN
WEAKENING SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.  MODELS INDICATE 850 MB
TEMPERATES OF +20 TO +22 CELSIUS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +10
MB WHICH MAY LEAVE US PRETTY WELL CAPPED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INDICATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. BUT
DUE TO THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WILL SHAVE 1-2 DEGREES
OFF HIGH TEMPERATURES.   TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE A LITTLE
TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF THIS OCCURS.
HOWEVER WILL LEAN TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE CONVECTIVE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH JUST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE NOW FOCUSED NEAR THE REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY...EXTENDING W/NW FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS
THE REGION.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. HIGH UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER EXISTS IN EXTENT TO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. IT APPEARS
KIND AND KLAF WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT STORMS LATE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THREATS AT KBMG AND KHUF. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
LIKELY TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT...UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN VCTS AT THIS POINT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED/
SCATTERED STORMS TO REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

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