Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270901
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TO OHIO WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES OUR WAY BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD SUNDAY...BUT THEN A
LITTLE COOLER AFTER THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO MOVES EASTWARD. WEATHER
DEPICTION INDICATES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION LATER TODAY.  MODELS INDICATE A THERMAL
TROUGH AT 850 MB ALSO PUSHING INTO OUR REGION LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY DAYBREAK. MENTIONED A FEW
FLURRIES FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS...BUT
TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TODAY WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS OUR AREA.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES.

A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RESULT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE WARMING TREND A LITTLE SATURDAY AS MODELS DEVELOP A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS SATURDAY BELOW THE
INVERSION.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST HALF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO OUR
REGION.  SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.  IN MOST CASES...WENT NEAR A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.  LATEST SUPERBLEND SEEMS KIND OF HIGH WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SINCE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE
LACKING.  HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT
ALSO SEEMS TO BE LACKING MOISTURE...SO WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AT THIS POINT.  THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR DURATION OF LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS
MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATE...
INSERTED TEMPO FOR MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
FEW FLURRIES AND REDUCED CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW...AND
RESULTANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAS REMAINED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
AFFECT KHUF/KBMG FROM TIME TO TIME FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DOUBTFUL
ANY PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 020 HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ADVECTING
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. APPEARS
THESE CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO KIND BY ISSUANCE TIME...AND SHOULD
REACH KBMG/KHUF BY 270900Z. THESE CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF THURSDAY.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING 300-320 DEGREES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. SPEEDS 7-10
KTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

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