Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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387
FXUS63 KIND 282322
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Low pressure over the upper midwest will move east across the northern
great lakes Sunday and trailing cold front will move across our region
late Sunday and Sunday evening.  High pressure will bring dry weather
Monday and early Tuesday.   An upper low will move towards the great
lakes by the middle of next week and a cold front will move across our
region around Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Water vapor satellite indicated plume of moisture from Mississippi and
Alabama north across our region.  Showers and thunderstorms were
beginning to develop across our region with day time heating and and
high resolution shows an increase of thunderstorms into the early
evening hour and then diminishing or ending most areas by late evening.

Will mention slight chance POPs west and chance POPS  east early this evening
and then thunderstorms ending most areas by midnight. Then a weak upper
disturbance may produce a few light showers late tonight.

Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s which is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Models have trended drier towards Sunday and most models indicate little if
any precipitation.  However with a cold front moving into our region late Sunday
prefer to keep low chance POPS in mainly Sunday afternoon and far east
Sunday evening.

After that weak high pressure will bring a period of dry weather later
Sunday night through early Tuesday.  The NAM and GFS models are quicker in spreading
precip our way late Monday and Tuesday.  I believe they are too quick given
that weak high pressure will be moving east across our region along with a
weak upper ridge.  New European keeps this next area of precipitation farther
west and will lean in that direction.  To match up with other offices will add
a slight chance of thunderstorms over northwest sections late Tuesday.  Otherwise...
the rest of the short term will be dry.

Models keep 850 MB temperatures in the lower to middle teens and with more sunshine
high temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the middle 80s.  With
mostly clear skies and light winds lows will be in the lower 60s Sunday night and
lower to middle 60s Monday night.  In most cases stayed close to a MOS blend on
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

ECMWF continue to keeps the warm and humid air mass in place
across central Indiana through Thursday. Thus as superblend
suggests...kept low chance pops in place during that time to
account for diurnal showers and storms.

Best chances for rain look to be on Thursday afternoon and evening
as the ECMWF shows a cold front crossing Indiana from the
northwest. With ample moisture in place ahead of the
front...precipitation seems like a good bet here.

Superblend continued to keep low chance pops in the forecast on
Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF shows the cold front southeast of
Indiana at that time...along with subsidence in place along with a
cooler and dryer air mass in place amid NW flow. Therefore we
twiddled the pop grids down 5-10% to achieve a dry forecast then.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 290000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

A brief light shower could move over KIND over the next hour but
this shouldn`t cause any flight reductions. Later tonight could
see some MVFR fog develop at the outlying sites after around 8-9z
with ample low level moisture available and winds dropping off to
around 5 kts or less. Some cloud cover should keep things from
dropping off too much. Hi res models are showing the line of
thunderstorms currently over Illinois and stretching south into
Missouri weakening and scattering out before it gets to Indiana
and as a result will leave this out. Will again have some chances
for thunderstorms Sunday especially during the afternoon ahead of
the cold frontal passage making it more likely at KIND and KBMG.
More likely in this case though still means a 30 percent chance or
less of hitting either site so will leave out for now. Forecast
soundings show some potential for wind gusts around 14-20 kts out
of the west generally in the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP



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