000
FXUS63 KIND 250257
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
957 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO ILLINOIS
SUNDAY AND OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL START OUR AS
MOSTLY RAIN...BUT CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND SUNDAY
EVENING SOUTH.  MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  FINALLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 952 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TRENDS THIS EVENING IN SHORT TERM MODELS AS WELL AS LATEST NAM12
SUGGEST NO PRECIP IN THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...SO MAIN CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST WAS REMOVING POPS IN THE NORTH AND WEST TO MAKE FOR A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. MIN TEMPERATURES
IN A COUPLE SPOTS HAD ALREADY DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST SO MATCHED
THOSE BUT OTHERWISE DIDN/T CHANGE ELSEWHERE AS WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STEADY
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACCUMS AS A QUICK MOVING BUT POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING IT FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS AT 12Z SUNDAY TO JUST SOUTH OF
LOUISVILLE BY 00Z MONDAY.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN AT THE START WITH A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND IN THE SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NEAR KOKOMO TO
RANDOLPH COUNTY.

AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE TO FRANKFORT TO NEW CASTLE LINE
FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY.

FARTHER SOUTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS AS CHANGE OVER WILL
OCCUR LATER.   EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES AS FAR SOUTH AS INDY...WHILE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING SUNDAY EVENING.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S
FAR SOUTH.  IN MOST AREAS CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NORTH AS WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 MPH.  BUT WITH SNOW BEING HEAVY AND WET...WILL NOT
MENTION BLOWING SNOW AT THIS TIME.

ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL SNOW WILL
END LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  FINALLY MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM MAY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS REST OF
SHORT TERM DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER.  ALSO MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE SHOWS NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS WARMING ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN FOR MOST OF THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY...BUT THEN COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 914 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR MARK THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY FILTER IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR
CATEGORY AROUND SUN 12Z AS PRECIP COMMENCES ACROSS TAF SITES.
PRECIP WILL INITIALLY START OUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN AROUND SUN 12Z
AT KLAF AND KIND. IT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH TO REMAINING TAF
SITES BY SUN 17Z. AT THAT POINT...IT WILL BEGIN ITS TRANSITION TO
-RASN AND -SN AT KIND AND KLAF. THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHOULD
TAKE PLACE AT BOTH KLAF AND KIND BY MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH
KHUF AND KBMG FOLLOWING TOMORROW EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENT...BUT IFR SHOULD BE
THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY.

WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...GRADUALLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TOMORROW EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 14 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ021-029>031-038-040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...TDUD

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