Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261836
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
236 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Active weather pattern continues with chances for thunderstorms
most days through the period. Temperatures will run above normal
through the period as well with highs in the mid 80s to around 90
and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorm will be exiting the forecast area
shortly, along with the showers to the north. Adjusted early PoPs
accordingly. Meanwhile, boundary extending from the the storm
southwest into the southern forecast area will continue to slide
southeast. This boundary may create some isolated convection, so
added slight chance PoPs there this morning.

Otherwise left forecast basically unchanged. Will continue to
monitor for any additional changes.

Previous discussion follows...

Quick update to increase pops and change wording to scattered
thunderstorms across the northwestern counties for the next couple
of hours. Previous discussion follows...

Radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms from
central Ohio through central Indiana and central Illinois
generally along a weak stalled-out warm frontal boundary. Rapid
update models show these dissipating over the next hour or so but
think this may be too quick as they haven`t been handling this
convection well. Thus kept scattered and isolated storms going in
that area for a few hours before dropping pops to a slight chance
and going dry in the west. During the morning looks like there
could be a few showers and storms across the northern half or so
of the area before high pressure builds in from the north and
ushers in dry air. Across the south could see a few showers and
storms in the afternoon with the front settling near there as the
high builds from the north. For highs used a consensus in the mid
80s north to upper 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Focus for the short term is on thunderstorm chances...but with
model variability and weak waves moving through the edges of an
upper ridge generally lower than average confidence forecast.
There potential for a wave to move in tonight, but it doesn`t look
very strong and there is big model disagreement on precip so
brought in low to mid chance pops in the west on the outskirts of
the ridge. Saturday better model agreement on a shortwave bringing
thunderstorm chances but no agreement on timing so tried to
compromise among solutions. Again the best chances will be in the
northwest closest to the upper forcing and furthest from the
subsidence of the ridge. Chances continue through Sunday with the
lowest chance on Sunday night with less forcing. High temperatures
will generally run in the mid 80s to around 90, but could wind up
a little lower if precip is more widespread or long lived than
currently thinking.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Models suggest the area will be on the periphery of weak uppe level
ridging, particularly early in the week. Thunderstorm chances will
be necessary much of the long term, but cannot justify more than 20
to 30 pops as convection will be either diurnally driven or subject
to subtle disturbances that models simply cannot handle on such time
scales.

Blended initialization was reasonable and required only minor
changes.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/18Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and evening. MVFR fog
appears possible late tonight, mainly at the outlying sites. Cannot
rule out brief IFR as well, but too uncertain to include right now.

Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
but probability is too low to include. Better chances expected later
tonight into Saturday and will include VCSH mention.

Winds will be less than 10kt throughout the period and occasionally
variable.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD



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