Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

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