369
FXUS63 KIND 271105
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
705 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.UPDATE...
AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A large area of high pressure will encompass much of the eastern
third of the U.S. through tomorrow, resulting in dry, sunny
conditions. However, the pattern will become more active starting
Wednesday night when the high pressure shifts east and a frontal
system enters the Great Lakes Region. Showers and thunderstorms
will then be persistent into the weekend, except for a break from
Saturday night through Sunday morning. They will quickly resume
again though on Sunday afternoon with higher chances on Monday as
several disturbances pass through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail today as high pressure
strengthens over the area. Currently, there is an area of low
pressure situated over the eastern Great Lakes Region, but strong
subsidence will stream into central Indiana as a large ridge of
high pressure builds over the Central Plains. Despite the ample
sunshine though, northwest flow will keep temperatures below
normal with highs only in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The aforementioned high pressure will keep conditions dry through
Wednesday across central Indiana. Decent radiational cooling
tonight with clear skies will cause quite a drop in overnight lows
though with readings in the mid 50s. However, temperatures will
start to rebound a bit tomorrow as winds become southerly and
ample sunshine continues. Look for Wednesday`s highs to top off
closer to normal in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday night, the pattern will become more active as a frontal
system enters the Great Lakes Region. As a result, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area with chances across the entire forecast
area by Thursday morning. Chances will continue to increase
through Thursday night as the associated frontal boundary
approaches and forcing improves along and ahead of it.

Temperatures, a weak warming trend will commence during the short
term period as the forecast area falls into the warm sector of the
frontal system. Highs will jump above normal by Thursday with mid
to upper 80s. Meanwhile, overnight lows for Wednesday and Thursday
nights will be warm with readings in the upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Active weather will be the rule Friday...Friday night and again
Monday.  During the weekend we can expect low chance POPS southeast
sections Saturday and then mostly dry rest of the weekend with
slight chance POPS some areas again late Sunday.

Models indicate a weak cold front will drift south across Indiana
Friday night and Saturday...becoming stationary across southern
Indiana and drifting back to the north Monday as low pressure moves
into the central plains Sunday night and east towards Indiana Monday.
A progressive upper pattern will be the rule as an upper trough
moves across the northern plains Friday and the great lakes over the
weekend.

Raised Superblend POPS slightly some areas Friday afternoon and
evening and lowered them slightly some areas Sunday.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal Friday and Monday and
near normal over the weekend.  Stayed close to model initialized
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 27/1200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 705 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

VFR conditions through the period.  Although KLAF could be MVFR fog
for the first hour.

High pressure over the middle Mississippi valley will move east
across central Indiana this afternoon.  Fog vicinity of KLAF airport
will clear out by mid morning.  Expect only high thin clouds through
the period as there will be good subsidence and a very dry airmass.
No other visibility restrictions are expected through the period.

Light northwest winds will become south tonight generally 5 knots or
less and then increasing to 10 knots after 12Z Wednesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JP/TDUD