Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING
IT IS GOING TO DOMINATE HOOSIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTROL THE WEATHER AGAIN INTO MONDAY. A THIRD COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY CROSS OUR STATE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. A VERY WARM
AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ALREADY...AND VERY MOIST DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH THE MAX HEATING AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S. PWATS ONCE AGAIN OVER 2 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
THUS HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.

ONGOING TEMPS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE. THE MODELS AGREE THE AIR WILL BE
SO DRY SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT TIMES THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST YOU PREFER...THE MOS IS ALMOST IDENTICAL. THIS BOOSTS
CONFIDENCE IT CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE ALTERATION.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH.
THE NAM DOES NOT. WITH THE OTHER TWO MODELS AGREEING THE NAM WILL
BE DISREGARDED AND THE GFS GUIDANCE USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES.  MODELS KEEP US UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 00Z EURO AND GFS NOW INDICATE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR
WAY.  THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BEING DRY...WHILE THE EURO IS
QUITE WEST ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.   WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND MENTION
LOW CHANCES NORTH AND CENTRAL MONDAY AND ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 291200Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

COUPLE SHOWERS POPPED JUST SW OF KIND AND MOVING ESE. WILL CARRY
VCSH NEXT HOUR THEN DRY UNTIL STORM CHANCE RETURNS WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

EARLIER STORMS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWUNG WINDS TO WNW THIS PAST
HOUR. THESE SHOULD SWING BACK TO SE THEN SSW AS SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ILLINOIS MOVES INTO AREA MID AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUD DECK
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN ILLINOIS WILL NOT MAKE IT HERE AND LIKELY
BREAK UP IN NEXT FEW HOURS.

CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER 2-3 HOUR WINDOW WILL RETURN WITH TROUGH
BY MID AFTERNOON. CLEARING BY DUSK AND VFR THERE ONWARD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...TUCEK


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