Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

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