Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 201030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
530 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Warm temperatures will continue through the work week, with colder
weather arriving for the weekend. A front will bring rain chances
Tuesday, with a stronger frontal system bringing more rain Thursday
into Friday.


.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Observing equipment show very low visibility this morning across the
southeast 2/3 of the forecast area. However, webcams show that the
1/4 mile or less visibilities are not necessarily impacting urban
areas yet.

Given recent trends of the lower visibilities moving north, will
expand the Dense Fog Advisory to the entire forecast area. This will
account for not only the lower visibility but also the rapidly
changing conditions for travelers. Will continue to mention that
rural areas will be the most impacted.

Since the fog is relatively shallow, it should burn off this
morning, allowing for sunshine this afternoon. This should allow
temperatures to get near the warmer of the MOS numbers, in the mid
60s to around 70.


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

A front will move into the area late tonight. Looks like
forcing/moisture won`t arrive until after midnight, so will keep the
evening dry. The better forcing/moisture really don`t arrive most
areas until Tuesday, so will go chance or lower PoPs for most of the

An upper trough and the surface front will move across the area on
Tuesday. Forcing and moisture look sufficient for likely PoPs most
areas during the morning. As the system exits, PoPs will lower
during the afternoon, with a lingering chance into Tuesday evening

Wednesday should be warm and dry with the area in between systems. A
surface low moving through the Great Lakes will bring a cold front
in on Wednesday night, but moisture and forcing are too limited for
any rain.

Went above MOS for highs in the west on Tuesday with that area
seeing more sun. Raised everywhere on Wednesday as guidance has been
too cool.


.LONG TERM.../Thursday Through Sunday/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Rain chances will return Thursday as a front returns north across
the area as a warm front. Better chances will arrive on Friday as a
strong cold front moves through and ends the Spring like
temperatures. With strong winds aloft and decent low level moisture
moving in, some strong to severe storms could accompany the front.

Northern areas could see some light wrap-around precipitation on
Saturday, otherwise dry conditions look to be the rule for the
weekend. Temperatures will be closer to average for the weekend.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 201200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 530 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

VLIFR conditions expected early in the period, with VFR returning by
16-18Z. MVFR conditions possible again late tonight.

Dense fog continues across most sites early this morning. KLAF has
come up, but expect dense fog to move back in by valid time.

The fog will gradually improve through the morning with VFR
conditions returning by 16-18Z.

Mid and high clouds will increase this evening as a cold front
approaches. Scattered showers will move in after 06Z, and ceilings
will continue to lower. MVFR ceilings are possible once again after


Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for INZ021-028>031-



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