Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290613
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
213 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Weak fronts will continue to pass Indiana from the west until
Wednesday, when high pressure developing over the eastern USA should
take control of Hoosier weather.

Another frontal boundary is forecast to arrive in Indiana Friday. It
will then become stationary, staying across our state through the
weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM (Today)...

Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

The main issue is POPs.

For several runs, the models have been hinting about a weak
disturbance with moderate instability coming through late today.
Things aren`t nearly as impressive as yesterday, but some models
fire something while others don`t. The slight chance for the
central and north from consensus looks good by allowing for
something, but not hitting it hard.

While we are mostly clear early this morning, the day should be
partly cloudy. Satellite shows approaching cloud bands, and wet
ground should promote diurnal cumulus.

At Indianapolis, consensus produced a perfect temperature forecast
yesterday. In the same basic situation, it ought to work well
again.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

The main forecast problem remains POPs.

Models continue to agree that early in the period a series of
weak fronts will pass. They differ about POPs, a typical problem
with subtle features. Consensus will be used to minimize error,
but those could still be as high as 20 percent

Besides up and down rain chances, expect partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday should finally bring dry weather and clearing as all
models have a surface high building over the area.

Given consensus POPs will be used, so will consensus temperatures.
The underlying thermal fields are fairly close, so possible errors
should be limited to 1-3 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night Through Sunday/...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Confidence is low in this part of the forecast. ECMWF suggests
mainly NW flow in place across Indiana due to some ridging in place
across the Western plains. THe eCMWF suggest little in the way of
dynamics passing Indiana until Saturday and Sunday morning with
this flow...however...forecast builders blend includes some pops
nearly every day. A warm front does look to surge across Indiana On
Thursday...placing Indiana within the warm sector once again with
more of a southerly surface flow. Furthermore a stronger Cold front
looks to pass late Saturday into Sunday. This forecast feels best
chances will be on Saturday and Saturday night when the deepest warm
and moist air arrives along with some support aloft.
However...models just are not that good handling these weak...subtle
waves. Confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 290600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Could see come fog overnight through 12z. However, drier air
advection will discourage worse than MVFR conditions. Also, would
not rule out a thunderstorm or two after 18z. But, coverage expected
to be too low to mention. Otherwise, should only see mid and high
clouds.

Winds will be west and southwest less than 10 knots.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...MK


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