Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290225
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPED CLOUDS A BIT IN THE WEST TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN
ON SATELLITE. HRRR TRIES TO BRING IN A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT BUT
DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE MUCH RAIN.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AS DYING SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE...BUT
NOT ENOUGH EXPECTED TO ADD THESE TO THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ON. SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS TO THE WEST INDICATE
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES 60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TRACK
OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AND EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT
BUT AT LEAST WARRANTS MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA. WEAK CHANCES WILL EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE YET TO COME TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION AND REMAIN
INCONSISTENT...KEPT CHANCES BELOW THE "LIKELY" CATEGORY...FOR NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DWINDLE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ITS
HOLD OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. AND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SLOWLY
ACCLIMATED BACK TO SEASONAL NORMAL BY MONDAY. WELCOME BACK
SUMMER...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE OF MOISTURE FROM ERIKA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
COME INTO PLAY IN THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEK. WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BRINGING SOME ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND BRING MOISTURE NORTH THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INITIALIZATION FOLLOWED THIS TREND AS
WELL AND JUST NEEDED SOME QUALITY CONTROL TWEAKS. TEMPERATURE-WISE
LOOKING AT HIGHS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM THE
INITIALIZATION AND THESE LOOK GOOD. HIGHS IN THE 90S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ATTAINABLE IF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
DOESN/T MAKE IT THIS WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO KIND TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET LEAVING BEHIND
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ARRIVING IN
THE EVENING AFTER 00Z. EVEN THEN ODDS WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50



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