Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 171650
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS MAINLY TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF
CLODUS A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEM OK AND NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY
CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME
UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S
LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE
DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO
12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS.

BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY
PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT
PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODEL DATA AND THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES OCCASIONAL SURFACE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FROM 190-220 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...MAY SEE SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 050 DEVELOPING
TOWARDS OR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KLAF AREA. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 180600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

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