Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231426
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
925 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Strong low pressure system over northeastern Georgia and
northwestern South Carolina early this morning will move off the
North Carolina coast tonight. A few showers will linger over mainly
eastern parts of central Indiana through this evening. Then, another
system will move over the Great Lakes mid week with a return to
seasonable temperatures in its wake late this week and weekend. In
addition, several quick moving waves in northwest flow aloft, will
bring periodic snow chances to the area late in the week and
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and tonight/...
Issued at 611 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Special weather statement issued through 10 am regarding patchy fog.
With north and northwest winds gusting to 25 mph, do not expect
widespread lingering dense fog.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 345 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Models in good agreement that strong low pressure system over the
southeastern states will move out to sea off the Carolina coast
tonight. This will bring a gradual end to the light showers over the
area from west to east by this evening. Meanwhile, areas west of
Lafayette and Bloomington are expected to just see thick cloud cover
with lingering low level moisture trapped under an inversion. Winds
will shift to northwest and increase to around 15 mph with gusts to
20 or more.

With the gusty northwest winds and cloudy skies, look for little
rise in temperatures with afternoon highs closer to the cooler 00z
NAM MOS in the mid 40s northwest to around 50 southeast. The winds
will ease up overnight, and model rh time sections and soundings
suggest there could be some breaks in the clouds near daybreak
southwest as a surface ridge moves in. MOS blend with lows in the
30s looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Models in agreement that an upper low will develop in western states
trough on Tuesday. The low will then track northeast to northern
Michigan on Wednesday and then reform over northern Quebec Wednesday
night. This will bring a noticeable difference to the past several
days as more seasonable air will filter in in the wake of an
associated cold front that will sweep east over central Indiana
Wednesday. In addition, there could also be some rain showers
Tuesday night into Wednesday and rain showers mixing with and
changing to snow showers Wednesday night. That said, the bulk of the
moisture will be north of central Indiana. So, stayed with chance
pops north mainly north through Wednesday with chance pops northeast
and slight chance southwest Wednesday night. Needless to say, not
expecting anything more than a dusting of snow accumulation, if that.

Could see some sunshine Tuesday, otherwise low level thickness progs
and thick clouds favor model blend with highs 45 to 50 Tuesday and
47 to 53 Wednesday and lows upper 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night
pref-frontal and lower to mid 30s Wednesday night post-frontal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 344 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Cold air on the back side of a low pressure system will be in
place for the start of the extended period. As a result, any
lingering moisture with the aforementioned system will be in the
form of a wintry mix on Thursday morning. As temperatures warm
into the upper 30s on Thursday though, that mix will transition to
all rain. Moisture will be limited though and precipitation will
mainly be confined to the northeastern quadrant of the forecast
area. As temperatures dip into the 20s on Thursday night and
remain at the freezing mark on Friday across those northeastern
counties, precipitation will be in the form of snow. No
accumulations are expected. Further out, Superblend initialization
is trending toward a dry forecast except for some slight chance
snow showers across the northeastern counties again on Saturday in
the cold advection.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 231500Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 925 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Updated current conditions and added some drizzle for a couple hours
at KIND. Previous discussion follows...

Moderate to high confidence that poor flying conditions will
continue through the most of the day and possibly tonight. Less
confident in timing, but forecasting conditions to become IFR 14z-17z
and MVFR 19z-03z. Would not completely rule out a shower or two,
mainly at IND, but expected coverage too low to put in the TAFs.

North and northwest winds 10 to 15 knots will gust to 20 knots or
more today. Gusts will end after 02z, and sustained speeds will
drop to 10 knots or less.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/CP


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