Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291441
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY. THEN AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO
GRIDS.  EVEN THOUGH AREA OF SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT...THERE
WILL BE SOME INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING.  BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO
HANDLE THIS WELL.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATER TODAY AND THEN EAST OF THE STATE BY
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING THIS
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO USED A BLEND FOR
POPS WHICH AMOUNTS TO LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHT
GREATER CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THESE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW MOVING THROUGH.

UNDERCUT MAVMOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 70S (NORTHERN
COUNTIES) TO NEAR 80 (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND DURING
THIS TIME AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THE DISTURBANCES THAT INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MUCH HIGHER THAN A LOW
CHANCE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AT THIS TIME. SO REALLY DID NOT STRAY FAR
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MOST
OF THE LONG TERM. VARIOUS SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

EACH DAY WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASH OUT. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES LEADS TO BROAD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS DO VARY ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH GFS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN WHILE 12Z ECMWF MUCH LESS SO.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN INDIANA CONTINUES TO KEEP SOME IFR CIGS
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATES AND
SOME DAYTIME HEATING BUILDS...EXPECTED CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AS
SEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE UPDATED TAFS
TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING IFR CIGS IN SOME SPOTS BASED UPON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY GIVING WAY TO VFR BY 00Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT MVFR CEILINGS /AND EVEN SOME IFR/ ARE
SPREADING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA. EXPECT THESE TO
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
JUST WARRANT A VICINITY MENTION. WHILE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE...FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR KBMG. USED VCTS THERE
AND VCSH ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

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