Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291657
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1258 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

An upper level low will continue to loiter in the area into
Saturday before finally deciding to exit. This will keep
cool temperatures around along with some showers and
thunderstorms. Drier and warmer conditions will return late
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The upper low across central Indiana at the moment will sink south
through the day. While showers will move across the western quarter
of the area before 12Z, after 12Z only isolated showers are expected
across most of the area as much of the rain rotates across locations
outside of central Indiana.

During the afternoon, instability will build a little with some
heating, so expect some scattered convection to develop. In
addition, some energy will begin to approach the area from the north
and east late in the period.

Thus will go mainly slight chance PoPs this morning across the area,
then chance PoPs in the afternoon. Once again, wouldn`t be surprised
to see some small hail in a couple of places this afternoon.

Generally stayed with a model blend for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Focus remains on chances for rain through the period. Models are
close enough that a blend was used.

Stronger forcing will rotate back into the area from the north and
east tonight, especially after midnight. Thus went chance PoPs
during the evening hours, with PoPs increasing to likely across most
of the area from northeast to southwest during the night.

This same energy will continue the likely PoPs Friday morning, then
PoPs will lower across the eastern forecast area during the
afternoon as forcing rotates off to the west and south.

The upper low will bring in another slug of stronger energy into the
eastern forecast area Friday night into Saturday, so will go likely
PoPs there during the periods as needed. Chance PoPs will be
elsewhere.

Finally the low leaves the area Saturday night, so only slight
chance PoPs were needed northeast.

Stuck with a model blend for temperatures through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Residual rain showers in association with an upper low will linger
into Sunday across the northeastern counties. However, a large
ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the
Midwest, and all areas will be dry by Sunday evening. The dry
weather will prevail through mid-week when a system brings the
next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Latest initialization
wanted to bring precipitation in from the south a bit early on
Wednesday, so removed mention of those pops. Chances will be
higher starting Wednesday evening though as a cold front
approaches central Indiana. A weak warming trend will commence
during the extended period with above normal temperatures by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 29/18Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Generally VFR Ceilings through early evening followed by IFR
Ceilings with rain showers late tonight and Friday morning. Then
improving again toward midday Friday.

An upper low pressure system will continue across Indiana through
the period.  Radar indicates scattered light showers were occurring
across the region and ceilings generally ranged from 3 to 5 thousand
feet. With daytime heating expect slightly higher ceilings as the
afternoon wears on.  Could see an isolated thundershower as well.
Model indicate showers will become more numerous late tonight and
model soundings indicate ceilings and visibilities will become IFR
as well late tonight and Friday morning.  Should see some
improvement again by midday Friday with ceilings improving to 2 to 4
thousand feet.

Winds through the period will be northerly at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH


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