Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301807
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 902 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GOING DRY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AND THEN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
WHEN BUMPING UP TO LOW CHANCE. FINALLY BY MID AFTERNOON REACH THE
HIGH CHANCE POPS OF ORIGINAL FORECAST AND CARRY THOSE UNTIL
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK SO
NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AN UPPER TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DEGREE OF LIFT AND PROGGED INSTABILITY NOT TOO
EXCESSIVE...BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE
THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOK OK FOR THE
MOST PART...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
TONIGHT TO COVER THE POP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GET SHEARED OUT DURING
THE LATER PERIODS...LEAVING AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS VORT LOBE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL
FOCUS...DOUBT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH
TIME...THINK THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN. FOR NOW...WILL PUT A SMALL
CHANCE POP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE VORTICITY AXIS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIODS.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE
LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAINLY VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THEN MVFR TO IFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING TAF SITES.

SCT-BROKEN CU THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. THEN BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE. MODELS INDICATE MVFR OR
IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OF THE OUTLYING TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SOUTH UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/CP
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF


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