Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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706
FXUS63 KIND 200823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS AROUND THE AREA.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE FALLING INTO THE
30S AT THE MOMENT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.

RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF RAIN MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AN INITIAL WEAKENING PUSH OF RAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN CURRENTLY TO OUR
WEST WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER WAVE. TIME
SECTIONS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS WHERE THE
LIFT WILL OCCUR. THUS FEEL THAT SOME RAIN WILL BE GENERATED
TODAY...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH WILL REACH THE SURFACE AS
LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AM NOT READY TO COMMIT TO
LIKELY POPS TODAY. HOWEVER FEEL THAT MANY PLACES IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SPRINKLES. THUS DECIDED TO GO
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST.

WENT HIGHEST POPS LATE IN THE DAY GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE TIME REQUIRED TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WARMER THAN THE MAV MOS BECAUSE THE GFS LOOKS
A BIT FAST WITH THE SYSTEM. WENT CLOSE TO MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.

LIFT CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS SO WILL GO DRY MOST
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SECTIONS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND SO
WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WENT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST FOR
HIGHS SINCE THEY WILL SEE MORE SUN. THIS ENDS UP NOT FAR FROM MAV
MOS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT
NOT HAVE ANY FORCING OR MOISTURE WITH IT. CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OHIO SATURDAY MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BECOME STALLED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH ALL MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 00Z EURO LOOKS QUITE WET AND THE GEMNH IS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  AIRMASS IS FAIRLY STABLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...SO DOWN PLAYED MENTION OF THUNDER THEN.
OTHERWISE...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER DURING THE LONG TERM AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY RISING TO THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 60S REST OF THE LONG TERM.
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES IN MOST
CASES.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGSS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. CIRRUS AND AC WILL
BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR STARTING AFTER 17Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT FAR OUT IS
NOT GOOD.

SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK/JH

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