Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 141947
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BEFORE A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ANOTHER LARGE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL CONTROL
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. OBVIOUSLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
TEMPERATURES ARE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CONCERN.

WENT NEAR THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...AND LOW 40S IN SOME OF THE MORE RURAL
AREAS OWING TO THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUT ONLY
BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CARRY LOW END LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST NEARER THE UPPER TROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY.

ON TEMPS...SLIGHTLY COOLER MOS APPEARS BEST DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS LIKELY...AND CONSENSUS NUMBERS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS LOOK BEST ON MINS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE LIKELY MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL AND DRY AND THEN BECOME WARMER
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES INDICATE
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
INITIALIZED WITH ALLBLEND AND ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PATCHY FOG AT THE OUTLYING TAFS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING OUR AREA MONDAY WILL
BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL LATER MONDAY SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY CHANCES FOR SHRA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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