Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 102234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL DOMINANT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMUP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL OR WARMER BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A WEAKENING IMPULSE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE ABOUT
ALL CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE FROM THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THEN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT REGIME SAW VERY LITTLE
REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM A MOS BLEND OF LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 6 TO 11 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
THE DAY...HOWEVER PORTIONS MAY BE MOSTLY SUNNY AT TIMES.

THEN MODELS ARE PREDICTING A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY AS EARLY AS VERY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
THEN LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES A LULL
IN SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY FOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE
ACCEPTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS GOOD
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN VARIOUS FORMS OF GUIDANCE.

THE BLEND WILL BE USED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS. THAT BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
FIELDS OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS AS WELL AS INCREASED ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THAT REDUCES CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LINGERING SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 030 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DRYING NEAR THIS LEVEL LATER TONIGHT...SO THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...LAYERED
CLOUD COVER ABOVE 050.

SURFACE WINDS 260-280 DEGREES AT 7-9 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER 110600Z. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS


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