Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240629
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
229 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances
of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday
weekend as various upper waves move across the area. Temperatures
will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

No important changes are needed at this time. High pressure thin
high clouds over southwest sections and clear skies elsewhere.  Should
see a little more high thin clouds by morning.  Kept lows from near 50
to lower 50s over east sections as well as Bloomington area and middle
50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough with the big picture, and uncertainty high enough in the
details, that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and the surface high will keep Tuesday warm and dry.

Beginning Tuesday night, a few upper impulses will move across the
area during the short term. Models, as is typical, differ on timing
and impact of these impulses as they move through. Thus will not try
and get too detailed in PoPs Wednesday on.

The atmosphere should take a while to moisten up Tuesday night, and
better forcing should not arrive until the latter part of the night.
Thus only went slight chance PoPs during the evening, with chance
PoPs overnight.

Went chance pops Wednesday through Thursday, since the uncertainty
precludes going any higher.

Generally stuck with a blend on temperatures. Of course temperatures
could be cooler or even a little warmer during the afternoons
depending on convection (or lack thereof).

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through next Monday/...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Ensembles in good agreement with respect to the overall pattern
during the extended. Mean ridging expected along the east coast
with troughing over the western parts of the country.

An upper disturbance is expected to eject into the northern Midwest
or western Great Lakes over the weekend. In the wake of this
system, heights are progged to rise a bit, however ensembles
suggest a weakness in the upper ridge may linger over the Ohio
Valley into early next week.

Ensembles continue to suggest daily chances for convection
throughout the extended. However, convection may become more
diurnal in nature by early next week as the Plains disturbance
moves away, and the local area becomes more influenced by the
weakness in the upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/0600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR conditions will still prevail for the duration of this TAF
period.  However, mid clouds will increase late in the period as an
upper wave approaches...bringing rain showers after WED 06Z. Winds
will veer from the southeast to southwest with sustained speeds of 5
to 10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD



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