Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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965
FXUS63 KIND 260646
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
246 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Three different weather systems will bring rain chances to central
Indiana the remainder of this weekend and much of next week.
Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly over average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

For the update just made some adjustments to hourly precip coverage.
Overall forecast is the same--pretty much everyone in central
Indiana will see rain at some point during the overnight, and with
elevated instability showing up through the night kept the slight
chance for thunder as well. Lows in the mid to upper 50s still right
on track as southerly flow and rain will continue under cloudy
skies. Previous discussion follows...

Main focus tonight will be on shower and thunderstorm timing and
coverage.

Models in good agreement that an upper low will move slowly
northeast across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley tonight. A
35 to 40 knot low level jet will pump gulf moisture and instability
northward across the Ohio Valley ahead of an associated slow moving
cold front. This should result in widespread showers with the best
chances overnight per the High Resolution Rapid Refresh.

With clouds increasing and southerly low level flow, will go at or
above a mos and model blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Focus for the short term will be on shower and thunderstorm chances.

Models in general agreement that the upper low will lift northeast
across north central Indiana on Sunday before it opens up over
southern lower Michigan Sunday night. This will push a cold front
across central Indiana and bring widespread showers to the area
Sunday. Model instability progs were showing enough unstable air for
thunder mention. As the trough moves further away, should only see a
few residual showers east Sunday evening before a brief break occurs.

By Monday, a trailing upper trough will bring more showers to the
area. The best chances look to be Monday night as the trough and an
associated cold front move through. Models are showing enough model
instability for thunder. The showers are expected to diminish and
end on Tuesday in the wake of the trough and front.

Low level thermal progs and expected cloud cover support above
normal temperatures from the blend with highs in the 60s. The far
southern counties could even see lower 70s on Monday. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 229 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

ECMWF continues to suggest strong ridging across the area on
Wednesday as large but poorly defined areas of surface high
pressure move across the Great Lakes...Ohio Valley and the
southeastern states. This will lead to dry weather on Wednesday.
Meanwhile...strong low pressure will be developing across the
southern plains. ECMWF Moves this system toward Indiana on
Thursday afternoon through Friday. With favorable dynamics in
place aloft including a strong and sharp upper trough...have
included high likely pops at that time.

ECMWF then suggests strong ridging building across the area on
Friday night and Saturday along with strong Subsidence and the
arrival of another high pressure system. Thus dry weather is
expected then.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 260600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Off and on showers expected at the sites into the morning, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR within the next couple of hours and then
bouncing around between VFR and MVFR through the day. Should see
wind gusts pick up again Sunday afternoon with gusts around 18-24
kts out of the southwest. Thunder cannot be ruled out during the
period but chances are low enough to leave out at this time.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...CP/JP



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