Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 282028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
RESIDUAL LAYERED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING
THE REST OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY PARTS OF NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
COLD ADVECTION CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN MIDWEST
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE MAY
SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH PASSES BY. IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLY ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE
CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER WEAK...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER DOES COME CLOSE TO SATURATION. WILL PUT
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING A 75-80
KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DOWN
TO -5C BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
PELLETS OR SLEET SHOWERS TOWARDS FRIDAY EVENING.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILL NUDGE DOWN THE HIGHS A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BOOKEND THIS PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE.

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A LARGE...DEEP TROUGH PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING AND MOISTURE
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT AND MOST MOISTURE LOOKS TO PASS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRIOR TO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING ALOFT AMID THE DEEP TROUGH...A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR EVEN A FLURRY MAY BE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR -4C. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE A FLAKE OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

STRONG RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AIR MAS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES...SLOWLY CREEPING BACK TOWARD NORMALS AS THE DOME OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS THE RIDGE
PASSES TO OUR EAST. A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MOISTURE
ARRIVING. WITH FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE...SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BECOMING TOGETHER FOR PRECIP AND HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCES THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT AWAY TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MAY SEE SOME SPORADIC WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY AT KLAF. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE
UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. SATELLITE SHOWS A SHARP CUT-OFF OF CLOUDS...SWEEPING ACROSS
INDIANA. CLEAR SKIES OVER ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME CONCERN ABOUT SC DECKS OVER WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THUS HAVE LEFT
THINGS VFR OVERNIGHT FOR NOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S...WHICH SHOULD RESULT SOME SCT VFR
CU ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.