Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 181939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
238 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

An upper level low moving into the Kentucky/Tennessee area today
could bring some light rain to far southern sections of the area. A
couple of fronts may bring rain around Tuesday and then again late
next week. Temperatures will remain well above average for much of
the next week.


.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Clouds will continue to thicken up across the forecast area today,
especially across the southern half of the area as an upper low
moves into the Kentucky and Tennessee area.

The upper low will bring some weak forcing to the area, but time
height sections show that forcing and moisture do not line up well.
Thus believe chances for rain will be low (slight chance PoPs) and
confined to far southern areas closer to the upper system.

Hi-res short term models show some potential shower activity as
early as 12Z across the far south, but the lower atmosphere remains
quite dry at that time so do not expect these to reach the ground.
Best chances for rain are this afternoon based on expected timing of
the main forcing.

For temperatures, ended up close to MOS most locations given the
expected cloud cover. Readings could reach within a few degrees of
record highs. (If clouds end up thinner than expected at any
location, forecast temperatures will be too cool.)


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Forcing from the upper low looks to be far enough southeast of the
area to go dry by 00Z. A cold front moving into the northern
forecast area won`t have any moisture or support with it, so went
dry everywhere tonight.

Upper ridging builds into the area for Sunday and Monday, providing
continued dry weather. Soundings indicate some potential for lower
clouds with an inversion Sunday morning, but am not confident enough
to raise the initialization`s sky cover much at this time.

Models are slowing the arrival of rain chances Monday night ahead of
a cold front. Thus removed most of the initialization`s PoPs Monday
evening. Chance PoPs will continue overnight Monday night as the
system approaches.

With some uncertainty on sky cover Sunday, stayed close to the
intialization`s highs, which is near a blend of MOS. For Monday
nudged up highs some areas, with readings around 70 across the
southwest half and upper 60s northeast. Wouldn`t be surprised if it
gets warmer than this ahead of the front, but would rather err on
the cooler side for now. At any rate temperatures will be near
record values.


.LONG TERM.../Tuesday Night through Friday night/
Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Models continue to be in similar agreement with a couple mid-upper
shortwaves moving northeast from the southwest U.S. towards the
Upper Great Lakes. System currently over southern CA will move
northeast into the Plains phasing with one shortwave, while another
develops within active southern stream.

By Thursday, next mid-upper level shortwave will move into the
Rockies with cyclogenesis over the central High Plains region. The
good news here is our mild weather will continue Wednesday and
Thursday, but the bad news is that rain and possibly some
thunderstorms will spread over the region Thursday and Friday. Given
our temperatures have been above normal for this time of year, some
of the rain and storms could be strong Thursday night/Friday
afteroon ahead of an approaching cold front.

Cold front currently projected to move through region late Friday
afternoon dropping temperatures through the 40s into the umid-upper
30s by Saturday morning.

Confidence: moderate through Wednesday.


.AVIATION (Discussion for 181800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1159 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

IFR is possible tonight.

A weak, dissipating, cold front will cause wind to become light
after sundown, promoting fog. Some places may stay VFR, but areas of
visibilities 1-3 miles are possible from midnight through much of
sunday morning. Local ceilings below 1 thousand feet could also
occur. Skies will be mostly clear and visbilities p6SM by
tmorrow afternoon.

The wind should be southwest around 10 knots this afternoon, then
variable less than 5 knots starting this evening.




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