Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 100310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1005 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 325 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

A few snow showers will linger through this evening as an
associated upper low passes through the region, but additional
accumulations will be minimal. The best chances will be over the
northern counties where a quick inch of snow cannot be ruled out.
After dry conditions tomorrow, another quick upper low will bring
rain and snow showers to the northern counties early in the week.
Further out, additional upper waves will continue to rotate
through the area in the wake of the main upper trough. So, light
snow accumulations can be expected across the northern counties
once again from Wednesday night through Thursday. Meanwhile,
temperatures through the period will generally be below normal.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 1005 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

On radar still seeing some very light snow showers over the
northeast counties from a lake effect band and some flurries
elsewhere over the eastern half or so of the area, and overcast
conditions remain over the eastern half to two thirds of the area as
well. Short range models continue to show all of this moving off to
the east by around 6z or so, with only perhaps a couple tenths of an
inch or so, if that, of accumulation possible in the aforementioned
lake band. Partial clearing moving west to east across the area
should allow temperatures to drop into the upper teens to lower 20s.
Wind gusts still sporadically around 18 to 28 mph but should drop
off after 6z as well if not before.


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Tuesday/...

Issued at 325 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be rain/snow shower
chances with another upper wave on Monday and Tuesday.

First, dry conditions are expected to prevail for tomorrow, but
there are still low chances that a few flurries will be possible
on Sunday night as a surface trough moves through central Indiana.
The lack of moisture though will result in low confidence and thus
no mention in the forecast.

Attention then turns toward the next approaching upper low. This
will be another quick clipper like system that will bring chances
for rain and snow showers to the northern counties from Monday
through Tuesday morning. However, no snow accumulations are
expected, and temperatures will increase to near normal on Monday.
When the reinforcing surge of cold air enters the area on
Tuesday, most of the moisture will have already exited central

As mentioned above, a brief warm-up near normal can be expected on
Monday, but highs will only top off in the upper 20s/low 30s for
Tuesday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will be in the 20s on Sunday
and Monday nights, then plummet into the teens for Tuesday night.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The persistent upper trough will continue influencing the area into
the middle of the long term, then it will lift northeast. This will
allow flow to become briefly zonal for the end of the period.

Various waves will continue to move through the upper trough while
it`s over the area, bringing chances for precipitation at times. As
usual, the models differ a bit on timing and location. Thus see no
reason to change the initialization at this time.

Cold temperatures will give way to more seasonable readings by the
end of the period.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 100300z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1005 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

Some MVFR ceilings continue over/around KLAF and KIND and these may
continue off on and on through around 6z but after that should move
off to the east. After that expect VFR conditions to prevail for the
remainder of the TAF period. Wind gusts out of the NW will continue
for the next couple of hours before they slacken as the cold front
gets further away and the pressure gradient weakens. Winds will back
around to southwesterly Sunday morning. Could see some wind gusts
around 18 to 20 kts Sunday afternoon as well.




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