Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 010716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.