Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 011905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

POPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA LATELY. THE NAM HAS BEEN BETTER. THAT SEEMS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING WHERE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE
THE TROUGH. IT IS ALSO WHAT THE SHORTER TERM MODELS ARE SAYING.

PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
WHERE THE TROUGH IS. THIS IS APT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
SINCE ALL MODELS HAVE A WEAK WAVE PASSING ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
ISENTROPIC VORTICITY SURFACE. ALL THIS MAKES THE CATEGORICAL MAV
POPS LOOK BEST FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST EVEN IF THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC FIELDS LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED.

ELSEWHERE THE MAV POPS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THE MAV
SHOULD BE TOO HIGH. THE MET POPS FROM THE MODEL WHOSE PHYSICAL
FIELDS SEEM TO BE BEST SAY THE MAV IS TOO DRY. CONSIDERING THE
OFFSETTING FACTORS THE MAY MAY HAVE FOUND THE OPTIMAL MID POINT.

SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS SOUTH CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION.

GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED NORTH OF THE TROUGH LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST GRIP ON TROUGH LOCATION
TONIGHT...THE MET LOOKS GOOD FOR MINIMUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

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