Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260210
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

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