Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 270814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE...
CEILINGS ARE FLUCTUATING FROM IFR TO VFR CATEGORY AT KIND...BUT
FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.