Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 171817
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
117 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.UPDATE...

The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Surface high pressure will move east over the southern states late
this week. Gulf inflow around the high will allow for the cold
temperatures to climb to well above normal this weekend and into
next week. The southerly flow will also combine with lift from an
advancing frontal system and result in a rainy late weekend and
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 1223 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Bumped high temps down several degrees as obs so far are again
lagging by several degrees today even in full sunshine with only
light mixing and snowpack on the ground. Previous discussion
follows.

Issued at 855 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Updated to insert scattered flurries across the southeast where
flurries have been intense enough this morning to restrict
visibilities. These flurries will gradually move out of the area
by midday. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Main focus for today will be on clouds and temperatures as an upper
trough moves into the Smokies and surface high pressure slides into
northeastern Texas. Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Model low level rh progs and rh time sections indicate the low
clouds will exit our southern counties by mid morning. Also, lake
plume should shift more into our northeastern counties before
existing this afternoon as boundary layer winds shift to westerly.
After that, should see some mid and high clouds during the afternoon
in the northwest flow aloft. All this points to a general partly
cloudy sky with temperatures still cold, but more than 10 degrees
higher than yesterday.

Temperatures will start off around 1 to 5 degrees at daybreak and
top out near 20 degrees. Meanwhile, wind chills will start off 2 to
10 degrees below and max out at 10 to 15 degrees above.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Good confidence as high pressure moves to the southeastern states,
southwest low level flow will allow for dry weather with an upswing
in temperatures. In addition, model layered rh progs and rh time
sections suggest clearing from west to east tonight and little cloud
cover the rest of the period.

Model thermals and limited cloud cover suggest a near 10 degree jump
in temperatures each day through Friday and temperatures at or above
the blend. Highs on Friday will become near normal to slightly
above, at least in the middle and upper 30s. Would not rule out 40
degrees at some locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

The long term portion of the forecast will be significantly warmer
as the west coast ridge breaks down and shifts eastward across the
country. This will allow a trailing trough axis to push into the
Rockies Saturday and induce cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies.
Warm advection and isentropic lift out ahead of this developing low
will necessitate low pops for rain showers early in the weekend,
with chances increasing into early next week as a well developed
low pressure system pushes northeast through the Great Lakes and
drags a cold front through the area. The vast majority of
precipitation with this system will fall as rain, although it may
turn cold enough with the wrap around precipitation behind the
cold front for a few light snow showers.

Blended initialization handled things well and few significant
changes were required.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 17/18Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR through the period.

Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature this TAF
period. As a result, expect mostly clear skies, and winds
generally around 230-250 less than 10KT. No significant
obstructions to visibility expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/Nield
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Nield



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