Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 240211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1011 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A couple of low pressure systems will bring chances for rain mid
week and again for next weekend. Otherwise dry and seasonable
temperatures can be expected.


.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...

Issued at 926 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Surface analysis showed the quick moving area of low pressure over
Lake Erie late this evening. A trailing Cold front was stretching
west from the low...near Michiana and across Nrn Illinois. Skies
were clear across the state. Temperatures in the wake of the front
were in the lower 50s...while current temps across Indiana were in
the lower 60s.

Pretty straight-forward forecast the cold front is
expected to pass to the south and continue to elongate as the Low
pressure to the east pull farther away. moisture
available with this front. Time heights and forecast soundings
show a dry column through the night and into the morning also.
Thus will continue with a mostly clear sky in the grids with the
only caveat being the arrival of some high cloud across Southern
Wisconsin that may brush the Northern half of the state. Given the
cooler air in the wake of the front...ongoing low temperature
grids appear reasonable.


.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

High pressure will build in and keep much of the short term period
dry. A low pressure system will move into the area on Wednesday. The
atmosphere will take a while to moisten up, especially at low levels
(with southeast winds at the surface), so feel any rain will hold
off until Wednesday afternoon. Thus removed SuperBlend`s PoPs from
Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will remain seasonable or even a bit cool at times
through the period.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The slow but steady transition to the cool season will continue
through the extended...with quiet weather bookended by chances
for rain at the beginning and near the end of the forecast period
as systems continue to track across the northern half of the

Surface wave and an associated cold front will track through the
region Wednesday night and Thursday with widespread rain and
a few thunderstorms impacting central Indiana. This system will
quickly translate off the east through the day Thursday with
surface high pressure and ridging aloft providing dry cool weather
for the region to end the week.

Model differences begin to show for the weekend with respect to
handling of the next upper wave and associated low pressure and
front at the surface set to track through the Great Lakes. Op GFS
remains on the fast side of the guidance window and considering
the lack of agreement with respect to the individual GFS ensemble may be exhibiting its known progressive bias in the
mid to long range. Global guidance is also slower with the arrival
of the weekend system. Will continue with a blended forecast
until greater consensus is met...carrying low pops late Friday
night followed by better precip chances for Saturday into Saturday

Temps should generally persist within a few degrees of normal
throughout the extended...with highs in the upper 50s and lower
60s Thursday followed by lower to mid 60s for the rest of the
period. Lows will largely remain in the 40s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/0300Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1009 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Wind shear threat has diminished. No flight category changes at

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period. The only
area of concern will be some gusty southwest winds with possible
wind shear problems in the lower levels for the next few hours.
After that, winds will become northwesterly at 5 to 10 kts for
remainder of TAF period.





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