Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010724
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
224 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...

The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

A series of cold front fronts will cross Indiana over the rest of
the week. They won`t be associated with much moisture, so the
weather should stay dry through Saturday.

From Sunday into midweek expect the passage of a warm front, a brief
spell under high pressure, then the passage of another warm front.
The frontal activity is likely to cause a wet spell.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...
Issued at 226 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

The forecast is straightforward. There is good model agreement
cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will keep things mostly cloudy
but dry.  Given such agreement, and also considering what`s
upstream, a consensus should work well for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Saturday)...
Issued at 226 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

There is good model agreement the period will be dry, leaving
clouds and temperatures as the main forecast issues.

We probably won`t be overcast all the time, but we should be mostly
cloudy. Cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes should result in a lot of
stratocumulus Thursday. After that warm advection and perturbations
aloft will produce mid level clouds.

The regional consensus will be used for temperatures. Given the
uniformity of the various models, most errors should be 2 degrees or
less.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 224 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

Significant model discrepancies exist regarding handling of multiple
systems expected to impact central Indiana during the long term
portion of the forecast, which may have a major impact on
precipitation types and timing. See little reason to make
significant deviations from blended initialization as a result.

At least 3 separate systems look poised to bring at least a chance
of precipitation to the area during the week, with low level
thermals borderline for a few snowflakes at times.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 010600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

The SREF and GFS LAMP favor ceilings returning to VFR until after
12z. Then, they bring back good chances of MVFR to all but BMG 12z-
15z. Having said that, observational trends suggest ceilings will
continue to be around the border of VFR and MVFR. So, confidence is
not great with ceiling Category or timing through Thursday night.
Will have to take a last second look to determine which way to go
for the first few hours but generally will go with the models.

Winds will be west 8 to 12 knots through the period with gusty winds
possible to near 20 knots at LAF, where the pressure gradient was
slightly tighter.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...MK



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