Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210742
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
342 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions will be the
rule through much of the forecast period. After a small chance for
an isolated shower this morning, the next chance for rain will not
arrive until Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Early this morning and today/...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Some patchy fog being reported at a couple of sites in the
southeast counties, with northern and western counties getting a
stream of cirrus from upstream convection that is keeping
visibilities there from dropping. Will continue with mention of
patchy fog through the early morning hours for southeastern sites,
but will pull elsewhere due to the clouds. Think even the
southeastern sites shouldn`t stay down for too long with some
high clouds moving in over the next couple of hours.

For today, many of the forecast models are picking up on some
light qpf in the southeastern counties in late morning. Went ahead
and added a few hours of a slight chance for rain. Low confidence,
but with several models showing something didn`t want to
completely discount it. Given upper ridging though kept thunder
out of the forecast, and think any showers, should they develop,
will be isolated.

For high temperatures, expect to see similar numbers to yesterday,
with perhaps a degree or two warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Dry weather with above normal temperatures is expected through
the short term under the influence of a strengthening upper ridge.
High confidence forecast with good model agreement. High
temperatures will run in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...

Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

ECMWF continues to be quite consistent from run to run and
confidence remains high for a dry forecast through Tuesday.

ECMWF suggests strong ridging in place across the eastern half of
the United States through Tuesday. This results in strong
subsidence and surface High pressure in place across the eastern
Great Lakes extending into Indiana. THE warm and humid air mass
that is over Indiana and the region will remain in place under the
ridge...keeping temperatures above seasonal normals.

ECMWF suggests the ridge sliding eats on Wednesday as a cold front
begins to drop out of the plains states. Given the warm and humid
air mass that will be in place and the change of air mass
expected...have included pops on Wednesday for now along with a
cool down on temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 210600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A brief period of MVFR fog possible outlying TAF`s towards
daybreak.  Otherwise...VFR.

Threat fog fog tonight is more iffy due to better mixing and
a dry ground.  Could see a brief period of MVFR fog at a few
of the outlying TAF sites towards daybreak. Otherwise...no
restrictions rest of the forecast period.

Model soundings indicate few-sct CU possible Thursday afternoon.
Clear to a few thin high clouds will occur rest of the period.

Light south or southeast winds overnight will become south 5 to 8
knots Thursday and then light again Thursday evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JH



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