Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

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