Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 202045
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
445 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Rain chances will persist across the area into Tuesday as a couple
of cold fronts move through the area. After a brief break mid week,
frequent rain chances will return to the area late week into the
weekend as a couple of low pressure systems move through. Other than
a brief cooldown mid week, temperatures will remain near to above
average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

An area of thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to march across
roughly the northeast half of central Indiana during this afternoon.
With the elevated nature of the storms, large hail should continue
to be the primary threat. Will use a pre-first period in the text
products to account for this area of storms.

Temperatures will be tricky this afternoon as warm air sneaks into
the area with an area of low pressure. Confidence is low on how this
works out, especially with a persistent cold area across the middle
of the forecast area.

Low chances for rain will linger across the eastern half or so of
the forecast area after 00Z for a few hours. The remainder of the
night will be dry with forcing exiting the area.

Models are hinting at some low clouds developing overnight, so will
keep skies mostly cloudy.

Stayed with the blend for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

A weakening cold front will move into the area on Tuesday along with
some upper forcing. However, the upper forcing doesn`t look as good
as it did yesterday at this time. Thus have lowered PoPs into the
slight chance category most areas Tuesday afternoon.

As drier air works in Tuesday night, PoPs will be confined to the
southern half of the area and to the evening hours. PoPs will still
only be slight chance.

High pressure will then bring in drier air for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Thus will continue a dry forecast.

Warm advection aloft on Thursday will increase the clouds and
provide some lift, but the lower levels will remain dry. Thus feel a
dry forecast looks good for Thursday.

Stayed with the model blend for temperatures. Low temperatures
Tuesday night and Wednesday night could lead to freeze warnings for
the far southern counties those nights.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Thursday Night Through Monday/
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

The long term looks to be wet with frequent chances for rain. A warm
front could bring some rain Thursday night, but better chances for
rain will arrive with an upper low and surface low pressure system
later Friday night into the weekend.

Another system may move in for early next week and bring more
chances for rain.

The systems look to bring in warm air for much of the long term,
with highs in the 60s for most days.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/2100Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 445 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

A gust front went passed through the airport, so added a tempo wind
from 040 degrees through 22z. Otherwise, winds will revert back to
southwesterly ahead of a slowly approaching warm front. Also, pulled
VCSH based on radar trends.

Issued at 117 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

A cluster of thunderstorms west and northwest of LAF will continue
gradually pushing to the ESE this afternoon. Currently expect
convection into LAF around 18Z. There seems to have recently been
a bit of weakening associated with the portion of storms that will
affect LAF. Inserted a TEMPO to account for heavier thunderstorm
pockets that may move over the site. Could not get a clear signal
via nearby obs as to what kind of a wind shift/gust we may see
with these storms. Thus, did not currently account for any
significant change. Currently expect convection to move east of
LAF by 20Z. There remains a possibility that convection could
side-swipe IND around 20-22Z. Accounted for this with VCTS and
MVFR ceilings. Confidence not high that IND will be impacted.

Otherwise...VFR conditions to start for HUF and BMG. Bufkit
soundings imply that all TAF sites may see deteriorating
conditions late in the period...to MVFR and then IFR ceilings
this evening and overnight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MRD/MK



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