Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 260832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A COLD START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION...WIND GUSTS BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AS WELL. COLD MORNING
WITH 08Z TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 20S
SOUTH.

STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT CLEARING ATTEMPTING TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. CLOUDS WILL RETURN HOWEVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AS A
WEAK QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT IT TO DO LIKEWISE AS IT SPREADS INTO THE WABASH
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRIER AIR WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE LIGHT SNOW SOMEWHAT...BUT
STILL FEEL LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY.

TEMPS...DESPITE SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
TEMP RISES. GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF MAVMOS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO
THE MID 20S IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRECIP
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH STEADILY WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WILL
TRANSITION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS THE ENERGY ALOFT DIVES
INTO THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
ONLY SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LIGHT SNOWFALL...BUT PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING CANNOT BE
IGNORED. IN ADDITION WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RATIOS...POTENTIAL
CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING UP TO A HALF
INCH OR SO FOCUSED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. FURTHER
EAST...LOWER LEVELS EVEN DRIER WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES FROM FALLING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...STILL
COULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR DRIVERS TUESDAY
MORNING.

BULK OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL BE QUIET AS BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY...MAY
HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY COMPLETELY GETTING RID OF STRATOCU UNTIL LATE
DAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BY LATE DAY MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
SURFACE TEMPS COULD BE A FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP TYPE AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT LOWS DURING THE EVENING WITH TEMPS STEADILY RISING THEREAFTER
AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. CONCEIVABLY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE NAM AND SREF AS
THE ONLY GUIDANCE REALLY HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW. REST OF THE MODEL DATA GENERALLY
BRINGS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH RAIN BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. WILL MAINTAIN A RA/SN
MIX OVER NORTHEAST HALF OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...UNDERCUT MAVMOS BY A DEGREE OR SO TUESDAY THEN TOOK A MOS
BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES. WENT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AS SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...SO STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE TO ADD
IN A LOW POP SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A SLOWER MOVING
SYSTEM PER LATEST TRENDS.

AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY WENT COLDER THAN SUPERBLEND AND CLOSER TO THE
COLDER ECMWF /AND WPC/ AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW VFR AT KIND FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR FINALLY WINS OUT AS A CLEARING LINE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AT KIND AND KBMG AT THIS TIME.
SNOW SHOULD END AT THOSE SITES AS WELL THOUGH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THAT...MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD LINGER THROUGH
MID MORNING AND THEN BECOME VFR AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. EXPECT AIR
COLUMN TO MOISTEN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 28KTS THROUGH MON 09Z
AND THEN TAPER OFF. THEY WILL THEN BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...VARYING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
AT TIMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.