Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 302035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
435 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY THIS WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DAILY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT THE HIGH
WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED
WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AFTER DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT KEEPING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COMES TO AN END WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER FORCING PUSHES SOUTH. WITH
THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING BROUGHT IN PATCHY FOG AFTER AROUND 6Z TO THE
NORTH OF THE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THIS AREA EXPANDS
FURTHER SOUTH AFTER 9Z AS WELL. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT NEARBY THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND PROVIDING VERY WEAK
CONVERGENCE WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG THERE LATE DUE TO MOISTURE
POOLING.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND THIS
MATCHED THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND VORTICITY ABANDONED OVER INDIANA SPINS OVER THE
AREA. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS UNORGANIZED AND FAIRLY
WEAK. HOWEVER WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VESTIGES OF THE FRONT THAT
WASHED OUT OVER THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DAILY. LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MORE
COVERAGE AND THUS JUST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ACTUALLY KEPT THINGS DRY WITH THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IT/S SUBSIDENCE.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS BASED ON VERIFICATION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
NEAR CONSENSUS LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 302100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF AS DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONGOING TAF HANDLES THIS
WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 301200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAINLY VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THEN MVFR TO IFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING TAF SITES.

SCT-BROKEN CU THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. THEN BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE. MODELS INDICATE MVFR OR
IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OF THE OUTLYING TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SOUTH UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP



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