Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221422
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1022 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Aviation section updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

High pressure centered over southern Illinois will move east across
the Ohio valley today and east to the middle atlantic states Tuesday.
An upper air disturbance will move our way Wednesday and a cold front
will push across Indiana around Thursday.

High pressure behind this front will affect our weather Friday and
Saturday.   Another weather system will move our way early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and Tonight/...

Issued at 948 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Going forecast is on track and no changes necessary. Previous
discussion follows...

High pressure centered over southern Illinois is bringing clear
skies across the region.   Model soundings remain quite dry and only
expect a few diurnal CU later today...but maybe a bit more far
northeast. 850 MB temperatures will be similar to yesterday with
values around +10 to +12 celsius.  Given full sunshine and recent
temperature trends went closer to warmer MET temperatures for highs
today with values in the upper 70s over northeast sections to the
lower 80s south.

Tonight will be clear and cool with lows in the middle to upper 50s which
is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Tuesday will be mostly sunny as the high pressure system moves on to the
middle atlantic coast.  A light to moderate flow on the back side of the
high will allow temperatures to be slightly warmer Tuesday with highs
in the lower 80s most areas and approaching middle 80s south.

Gulf moisture will spread back into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
An upper disturbance will move our way by Wednesday.  The NAM...GEMNH
and european models have trended a little quicker in spreading precip
our way late Tuesday night.   As a result will mention 20 percent POPS
as far east as INDY by 12Z Wednesday.

Models indicate best upward forcing will remain just northwest of our area
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Went with chance POPS most areas Wednesday and
likely POPS northwest and chance POPS elsewhere Wednesday night.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows in the lower
to middle 60s Tuesday night and around 70 Wednesday night.  Highs Wednesday
will be in the lower 80s north and middle 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A cold front is progged to move through Central Indiana on
Thursday, triggering showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of
it. This was captured well by latest Superblend initialization, so
did not deviate at this time. As high pressure re-strengthens at
the surface on Friday, any remaining showers and thunderstorms
will become confined to just the far south/southeast counties. Dry
conditions will then prevail into the weekend, but showers and
thunderstorms will brush the west/northwest counties late in the
weekend as an upper trough traverses the Upper Midwest. After
temps near normal on Thursday, they will fall below normal on
Friday in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Expect
temperatures to slowly rebound again through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 221500z ind taf/...

VFR conditions will continue as High pressure remains in place
across the forecast area. Ongoing Forecast is in good shape and no
major changes made. Forecast soundings suggest SCT VFR CU as
convective temps are reached by the middle of the afternoon.

Previous Discussion Below

/Discussion for the 22/1200Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 716 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Localized fog ranging from MVFR to LIFR will be the main concern
both this morning and possibly again tomorrow morning at fog
prone sites such as KLAF, KHUF, and KBMG. Otherwise, VFR will be
the prevailing flight category for most of the TAF period after
fog dissipates around mid morning. Winds will start out westerly
and then become southerly late in the TAF period. Sustained speeds
will range between 4 to 8 kts.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



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