Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 100606
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
206 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THEN...SEPARATE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND. FINALLY...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL BY NEXT TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT
GRADUALLY EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING A DRY COLUMN EXCEPT JUST A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850 MILLIBARS. BUT...WITH UPPER WAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP DIURNAL CU TO A MINIMUM AND
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

00Z MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ARE
PRETTY CLOSE FOR TODAY...MATCH NICELY WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND AND
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIMING OF ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MODELS SIMILAR IN SLIDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERTOP
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAYBE KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN BORDER TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY IN
ISENTROPIC FLOW OVERTOP A WARM FRONT...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE SATURATES
DOWN. MEANWHILE...AS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA UPPER SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...A
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
BY 12Z SUNDAY PER SIMILAR 00Z MODELS. IN ADDITION...30 PLUS KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AND 40 PLUS KNOT MID LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO STRETCH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME IN
FLOW BETWEEN THE PLAINS RIDGE AND CANADIAN TROUGH. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS BRING 1000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN BY SATURDAY.

SO...WILL BRING POPS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE THEM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIKELY MCS TRACKS.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASE MORE THAN 5 DEGREES BY FRIDAY
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

ANALYSIS OF 500 MB ANAMOLIES FROM THE ECMWF INDICATED MUCH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEARLY 175 METERS BELOW
NORMAL WHICH INDIATES THAT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS AGREE WITH THIS TREND
AS DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THERE WAS
CONCERN EARLIER FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KLAF/KHUF/KBMG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE THAT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD...THEN
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 4 TO 8 KTS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DWM
AVIATION...TDUD

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