Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 222031
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
431 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Broad High pressure over the Eastern half of the United States
will continue to dominate Indiana/s Weather through the weekend.
This will result in dry weather with above normal temperatures.

The next best chance for rain will be Monday and Tuesday as a cold
front crosses the region. More seasonable temperatures are
expected in the wake of that cold front during the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure centered
over NY and PA extending a ridge southeast into the Ohio River
Valley. Low pressure was found over SE nebraska...with a warm front
extending northeast across Wisconsin to Michigan. A dying
Convective cluster was found over Southern Wisconsin and Nrn
Illinois. Water Vapor imagery shows a strong ridge in place over
the Central plains to western Canada.

Models suggest that The ridge to our west is expected to build
east tonight...steering the low over Nebraska well north of
Central Indiana. Thus the surface High pressure will continue to
establish itself and dominate the weather across Central Indiana.
Forecast Soundings and time heights remain showing a dry column
with subsidence. With little change in the overall air mass will
trend the forecast low towards persistence...under mostly clear
skies to account for any passing CI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Generally quiet weather is expected this period. The strong Ridge
of High pressure is expected to build east across Central Indiana
and the Great Lakes...steering any short waves well north of
Indiana into Canada. Meanwhile at the surface models continue to
suggest very large...and broad high pressure essentially in place
across the eastern half of North America. Forecast soundings show
a dry column through the period with unreachable convective
temperatures. Thus will continue to expect mostly clear skies
though the period. Given the little change in the overall air mass
will trend highs at or above MAVMOS...closer to ongoing
persistence.

Side note...model suggesting perhaps a few more clouds across the
northeast parts of the forecast area on Saturday which could
reduce temperatures. Confidence in these clouds and the
associated weak wave is low at this time given the strength of
the sharp ridge building across area.

First changes in the weather pattern may begin to strike late on
Sunday as the NAM and GFS suggest a cold front edging toward
Indiana...poised to push across the area on Sunday night.
Superblend may try to introduce pops late in the day here...but
will try and hold them off as the strong ridge ahead of the front
typically slows down the progression of such systems.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Fairly significant differences exist between this morning`s GFS
and the most recent available Euro in the handling of a large
upper low currently over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is far
slower with this feature and these differences majorly impact the
resultant forecast. At this point, will stick near the blended
initialization with precip chances, albeit fairly low in any one
period, much of the week. Thunder will be possible early in the
week, but instability indices suggest only showers in the later
periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Update to KIND TAF/...

Issued at 430 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

NO change. VFR with light and variable wind along with scattered
cirrus through the period.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TUCEK



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