Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211330
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
930 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

High pressure is expected across the area for most of the rest of
the week. A frontal system may move into the area over the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Today/
Issued at 930 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Made some adjustments to cloud cover and temperatures based on
latest trends seen on satellite and observations. However no major
changes made at this time.

Previous discussion follows...

Some patchy dense fog starting to show up over northeast Indiana at
this time. Will have to keep an eye on this as the low level flow is
favorable for this to advect into the northeast zones prior to
sunrise. Planning to keep a mention of some fog in the forecast
through the mid morning hours.

Otherwise, lower level cloud should continue to clear out from the
north prior to sunrise, although any additional fog or low cloud
development may delay clearing early this morning. Upper wave
currently dropping southeast through the Plains is expected to
head towards the Tennessee Valley by early this evening. Short
term model guidance suggests the organized lift associated with
this feature will stay off to the southwest of the forecast area
for the most part, so will go with a dry forecast for today.
Satellite upstream suggests quite a bit of mid and high level
cloud will probably move over the area this afternoon.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
may be a little on the cool side. Will nudge up the guidance a
bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Residual cloud cover from today should gradually thin and scatter
out during the night tonight as short wave trough continues to push
southeast. Will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Fairly quiet weather expected for the rest of the short term as a
large area of surface high pressure slowly drifts through the Great
Lakes. Will maintain some small chance PoPs for showers Thursday
night within a developing warm advection zone for now, but overall
precipitation signals in the model data not impressive.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS highs on
Wednesday look a little warm. Will cut the guidance highs about a
category at that time. Remainder of the periods look OK for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Guidance depicts an active period in the long term with at least
2-3 large low pressure systems set to impact the area in
succession.

Thunder will be a threat Friday night into Saturday night with the
first and strongest of these systems, and will carry this in the
grids.

Blended initialization handled all this relatively well and
required few major changes.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 211200Z TAFS/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Rather narrow band of low ceilings 004-007 AGL continues to push
south across the area. These low ceilings should scatter out at
the southern terminals by 211500Z based on extrapolation of the
back edge. Otherwise, increasing layers above 050 expected during
the course of the day.

Lingering visibility restrictions in fog expected to dissipate at
the terminals by the mid morning hours.

Surface winds generally 340-010 degrees at 8-12 kts today. A few
surface gusts 18-20 kts possible by mid afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS



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