Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270845
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN IOWA TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  A DRY SECONDARY ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY. IN
THE LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND COLD
WEATHER.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS INDICATE A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAY 7 AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM DISCUSSION /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

RADAR LOOPS INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WAS SPREADING INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE A LULL
WITH THE RAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN HAS IT INCREASING AGAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATER TODAY.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST
AREAS TODAY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES CUT THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM A
MOS BLEND DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUDS.

THE NAM ENDS THE RAIN TOO QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.  THEY
HAVE IT ALREADY ENDED AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING FOR INDY AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST.  ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT THAT FAST AND WILL GO
ALONG WITH THE SLOWER ENDING OF PRECIPITATION.  THIS SLOWER ENDING
MAY ALLOW A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT AND SOUTH TO THE I70 REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT WENT WITH A MOS BLEND OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE SOUTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT BEGIN
THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

SEVERAL MODELS KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS TENNESSEE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE MIXED PRECIP
COULD OCCUR OVER EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY
RAIN FARTHER SOUTH.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST.

MOST MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S MONDAY NIGHT AS A DRY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND ALSO ON A
LATE WEEK SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING A COLDER BUT DRY PATTERN TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TO END THE OLD THE OLD YEAR AND START THE NEW ONE.
THEY ALSO AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME TIMING
AND STRENGTH ISSUES REGARDING THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION...THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH BRING DEEP MOISTURE
NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
REFLECTS IN THE MODEL QPF FIELDS ALONG WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND.

WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR NOW AS VARYING
MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT COME CLOSE TO ADDING ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE 7 DAYS OUT BETWEEN THE WARMER EURO
AND COLDER GFS.

REGIONAL BLEND APPEARS TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WITH THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY
WITH HIGHS THEN ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING BUT CLOUDS
INCREASING...MID AND UPPER 30S LOOK OK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES BUT IND
BRIEFLY...AND LAF WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AND
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY
GETTING TOWARD THE LOW END OF MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR FOR A PERIOD
ON SATURDAY. WILL ONLY TAKE THINGS DOWN TO OVC010 AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE 10KT OR LESS THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

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