Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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357
FXUS63 KIND 201918
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
218 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

It will be mild with periodic shower chances through the middle of
next week. Then, more seasonable weather will return to the Ohio
valley late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 957 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Low pressure now over northeast Indiana and continuing to move
away to the northeast of the region. Still a few light showers
over far northern counties with pockets of drizzle elsewhere. Yet
another cloudy...gray day with 15Z temps ranging generally from
the mid 40s to mid 50s north to south.

Gray day with areas of fog as moisture remains trapped in a
shallow near surface layer. Little mixing of the lower levels is
anticipated as weak ridging aloft develops over the Ohio Valley
this afternoon. Soundings support a continuation of drizzle
through at least midday as drier air advects in over the boundary
layer. Lowered afternoon highs a degree or two based on current
obs but still expecting a mild day with 50s for most.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Precipitation chances and temperatures will continue to be the main
short term issues.

Models are handling the main synoptic features rather well this
weekend, so model blend is preferred. Yet another southwestern upper
system will rotate northeast tonight. However, this one will be a
bit further to the west than the previous ones and not have as much
moisture to work with. Thus, went with a slight chance of showers
tonight near and north of a Terre Haute to Evansville line. The
clouds will hang around tonight under an inversion per model rh time
sections and soundings. With thick clouds and mild low level thermal
progs, will go warmer than MOS blend with overnight temperatures
only dropping to the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Yet another southwestern upper low will move to the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles late Saturday. An impulse or two will eject
northeast ahead of this feature across the Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and night. This could result in scattered showers and
possibly even a thunderstorm or two over south central Indiana.

Finally, this upper low will move east across the southern states
Sunday and Sunday night. Moisture and warmer temperatures will be
drawn north ahead of the low and bring more shower chances to the
area through the weekend along with afternoon highs in the upper 50s
and mid 60s on Saturday. Sunday will not be much cooler than
Saturday. Normal highs for this time of year are only in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...

Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

The long term will begin with above normal temperatures and small
rain chances moving out of the area as an upper ridge builds in
and moves across central Indiana. Tuesday night a low pressure
system will approach from the plains and bring small chances for
rain with it. By Thursday though a broad upper trough across the
western and central U.S. will start to slowly move east, and this
will bring cold more seasonable air back to the area. Temperatures
will drop back to near normal for this time of year. Little upper
waves ejecting out of the upper trough could bring some
precipitation chances to the area for the remainder of the
extended, but right now there isn`t a major forcing mechanism to
focus on so just used the small off and on chance pops from the
initialization. Because of the arrival of the colder air, could
see some snow or a rain/snow mix for anything that falls Wednesday
night on.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 201800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1138 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Poor flying conditions will continue for the rest of the day into
tonight with some improvements for Saturday.

Areas of fog and pockets of drizzle continue to impact the
terminals late this morning as moisture remains trapped beneath a
strong inversion. As progressively drier air advects into the
region...should see the drizzle diminish early this afternoon but
the lower ceilings will continue under the inversion. Expect
ceilings generally persisting at a sub-IFR level into the
overnight with visibilities likely holding in the 3 to 5SM range.
Light SW flow this afternoon will back to southerly and increase
tonight as a warm front lifts north.

The passage of the frontal boundary will enable a relaxing of the
inversion to some degree on Saturday and increased low level
mixing will enable improvements in ceilings into the MVFR category
through the course of the day. S/SW winds will continue with the
potential for gusts in some areas during the afternoon. It now
appears that rain and scattered convection now is likely to hold
off on causing more significant impacts at the terminals until
after 00Z Saturday evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...RYAN



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