Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211329
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
929 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

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