Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1245 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A low pressure system is expected to move through the area over the
weekend. Another frontal system may affect the area during the early
parts of next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

With temperatures rising above freezing, allowed the freeze warning
for Jackson and Jennings counties to expire.

Previous discussion follows... Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Warm advection expected to develop today on the back side of
retreating surface high. Model data suggest lift today will
generally be weak and disorganized, and moisture looks to be limited
to the middle and upper levels of the air mass. As a result,
precipitation potential today looks slim, other than maybe some
sprinkles over the northwest zones later this afternoon. Will go
with a dry forecast today, although there should be quite a bit of
mid level cloud around.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
look good, so any adjustments will be minor.

Plan to continue the Freeze headlines as is.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Some stronger lift looks to brush across the far northern zones
early tonight in association with a strengthening low level jet off
to the northwest. Will keep some small chance PoPs going over the
far north and northeast zones tonight to cover this.

Otherwise, appears the main weather maker during this period will be
an upper low that is currently moving into the southwest parts of
the country. This upper low is expected to drift east into the Ohio
Valley by Saturday night. The best lift associated with this feature
looks to pass over the local area on Saturday and Saturday night.
Will bring in PoPs starting late Friday night and continue them
through Saturday night, with the highest PoPs on Saturday and
Saturday night. Models suggest some surface based and elevated
instability on Saturday and Saturday night, so potential for
thunderstorm activity at those times.

Based off of progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS highs on
Friday, and the lows Friday night look on the cool side. Will raise
the guidance numbers 3-5 degrees in those periods. Other periods
look OK.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Models continue to depict a very active period coming up in the
long term, with multiple organized low pressure systems passing
through the region. This will require many periods with
precipitation chances, save for a brief midweek break as a narrow
upper ridge passes through the area.

Convective indices will necessitate at least isolated thunder in
the grids Sunday and again during the day on Monday. Otherwise,
will carry only showers.

Temperatures will generally be warm, particularly early in the
week, with highs in the 60s.

Blended initialization handled things relatively well with only a
few changes required.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Good confidence in VFR conditions through at least tonight as lower
levels remain dry. Would not rule out a sprinkle or light shower at
IND or LAF toward 00z, but coverage expected to be too low to
put in the TAFs.

Look for low level wind shear 02z-13z as 50 plus knot low level jet
moves into northwestern parts of central Indiana.

Winds 10 mph or less will shift from southeast to south after 02z as
a warm front lifts northeast through the area. South winds will
become gusty 13z-15 Friday as the inversion dies.





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