Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.