Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 291413

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1010 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A remnant frontal zone remains across the area, and this combined
with occasional weak upper level disturbances will continue to
produce daily threats for thunderstorms in a warm and moist


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Patchy fog and low stratus continue to impact parts of the region
this morning...especially to the NW of the Indy metro. Skies were
mostly sunny elsewhere. 1330Z temps were in the 70s.

Another day where multiple factors are supporting a setup for
increasing convection focused on the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low pressure located between KBMI and KLAF will drift
slowly east into north central Indiana through the course of the
day. Diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest from the low
combined with multiple remnant outflow boundaries from convection
Thursday will serve as table setters for scattered storms as
convective temps are reached by mid afternoon in the moist
unstable airmass. An approaching wave aloft over southern Iowa and
northern Missouri will help enhance convective development as
well. Peaking at 40-50 pops for the second half of the afternoon
into early evening looks quite reasonable.

As was the case on Thursday...the primary impact from storms will
be soaking rains and localized flooding from slow moving cells.
The presence of the surface low and arrival of the wave aloft
along with sharper low level lapse rates may help to produce
slightly better organization to storms later this afternoon with
model soundings supporting potential for locally damaging wind
gusts out of stronger cells as cores aloft collapse. In general
though...anticipate subsevere storms moving in a sluggish and
erratic manner.

High temps will warm into the mid 80s in most areas again today.
Zone and grid updates out.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Little will change during the first part of the weekend as the
remnant frontal zone and numerous convective outflow boundaries
will remain in the region. Will require daily low chances for
storms, same as in recent days. Chances will be somewhat lower
late in the weekend as the frontal zone makes some progress
southward and surface high pressure nudges into the area.

Consensus temperatures again appeared reasonable but did make some
minor upward adjustments on highs as models are likely overdoing
extent of precip coverage.


.LONG TERM /Monday through next Thursday/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Operational models and ensembles suggest an upper ridge will build
over central Indiana during the middle of next week. This will bring
a warm front northeast over the area along with thunderstorm
chances, mainly along and ahead of it through Wednesday. Then,
chances will return late in the week as an eastward moving Canadian
upper low results in increasing and veering upper flow. This should
force a cold front to approach central Indiana from the northwest by
next Friday.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmest days of the long term
with the ridge over the area. Regional blend appears to handle this
well with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 those days and mid and
upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 291500Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Thu July 29 2016

Satellite and surface observations indicate an area of LIFR conditions
due to low clouds and fog in the vicinity of the KIND terminal off to
the west. Appears this area is slowly eroding along the eastern edge, so
don`t think this will directly impact the KIND terminal.

Otherwise, surface trough near the Illinois state line may be the focus
for scattered convection after 291800Z. Confidence in direct impacts
remain low at this time.

Previous discussion follows.

Confidence is good that the fog will lift by 13z or so at LAF.
Otherwise, good confidence in mostly VFR conditions. A nearby front
and upper disturbances will interact with a moist and unstable
atmosphere and result in scattered storms starting after 18z. Went
with VCTS with VFR ceilings as confidence is coverage is not high
enough that far our for tempo MVFR thunder groups.

Very light to calm winds will become west and southwest less than 10
knots this afternoon and once again become very light and calm
tonight. Could see some overnight fog, especially at any airport
that receives rain today or tonight. However, with convection around
tonight, only confident enough to go as low as MVFR overnight.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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