Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
338 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
HIGH WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER AS IT MOVES ON TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.   IN THE LONG TERM A COLD
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE NICEST DAYS THIS WEEK AS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INDIANA AND ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE LATER TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A COLD FRONT AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  WENT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES AS THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND QUITE A
BIT OF SUN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS.  MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME CLOUDY
TONIGHT AND WENT WITH LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES. MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL END AS COLDER DRIER AIR
ARRIVES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND SOME AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IMPACT AND IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP COULD END UP ALL LIQUID.

MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO
THIRD OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AND ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW SATURDAY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MOST PERIODS A MOS
BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  AS A
RESULT...LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A
DRY FORECAST.  TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE ON DAY 8.  A
VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE SHOWING A TRACK THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND OHIO
VALLEYS LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA LOOKS TO REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOW A STEADY STREAM
OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AGAIN...TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER IN REALITY...NONE OF THAT IS TO
BE FOUND. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD THE VFR HIGH CLOUDS AS SEEN BY
SATELLITE.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE RETURN OF LOWER VFR CIGS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS STATES. THUS HAVE TRENDED CIGS
LOWER...ALBEIT STILL VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JP/TDUD

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