Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 160721
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 AM EST Tues Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Arctic air will remain entrenched over central Indiana through
Wednesday. Then, temperatures will warm to well above normal this
weekend. A frontal system will bring rain to the area, especially
Sunday night and Sunday night. A mix with snowflakes is possible by
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

The main weather impact today, and especially this morning, will be
the cold with wind chills to around 15 degrees below zero at times.
Thus, a borderline Wind Chill Advisory will remain in effect through
noon.

Also, there could be some flurries or light snows around today and
tonight as energy rotates around an elongated Great Lakes upper low
and through central Indiana. Could see snow showers with slightly
more intensity over northern sections due to Lake Effect off Lake
Michigan.

Blend temperatures look reasonable. Moderate confidence temperatures
will start off around zero degrees at daybreak and only top out from
around 10 to 15 degrees late today. It will not be quiet as cold
tonight with lows in the single digits above zero and wind chills as
low as 8 degrees below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures.

Wednesday will start off with the former elongated upper low opened
as a trough and southeast of central Indiana. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure will be over the Ozarks and southern Plains. This high
will drop to the southern states by Thursday and allow a dry
southwest flow of air into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Also
noticeable will be increasing sunshine Wednesday with little cloud
cover thereafter.

Regional blend has temperatures closer to normal by Thursday, which
looks reasonable with the limited cloud cover and southwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 215 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

A progressive upper air pattern will occur late this week and early
next week.  An upper trough near the New England coast Thursday
night will move to the east and an upper ridge will move east across
Indiana Friday and early Saturday.  As result temperatures will
become much warmer Friday and over the weekend.

Models move a surface low into the central plains over the weekend
and to the western great lakes by Monday with a trailing cold front
moving through Indiana early Monday.  This system will bring a
chance of showers over the weekend and a likelihood of rain Sunday
night.

Models indicate near steady or slowly falling temperatures Monday
with arrival of colder air and some areas could see mixed
precipitation Monday.

Stayed close to Superblend POPS most periods and Superblend
temperatures Thursday night through Sunday.  Since temperatures will
be non-diurnal Monday...used hourly model surface temperatures to
recompute high and low temperatures for that period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1150 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Conditions will continue to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR
for the duration of the TAF period as low pressure lingers over
the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, winds will be west/southwesterly
at 10 to 14 kts through Tue 09Z, then tapering off to 5 to 10 kts
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TDUD



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