Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270755
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

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