Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221804
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
204 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

High pressure centered over southern Illinois will move east across
the Ohio valley today and east to the middle atlantic states Tuesday.
An upper air disturbance will move our way Wednesday and a cold front
will push across Indiana around Thursday.

High pressure behind this front will affect our weather Friday and
Saturday.   Another weather system will move our way early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and Tonight/...

Issued at 948 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Going forecast is on track and no changes necessary. Previous
discussion follows...

High pressure centered over southern Illinois is bringing clear
skies across the region.   Model soundings remain quite dry and only
expect a few diurnal CU later today...but maybe a bit more far
northeast. 850 MB temperatures will be similar to yesterday with
values around +10 to +12 celsius.  Given full sunshine and recent
temperature trends went closer to warmer MET temperatures for highs
today with values in the upper 70s over northeast sections to the
lower 80s south.

Tonight will be clear and cool with lows in the middle to upper 50s which
is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Tuesday will be mostly sunny as the high pressure system moves on to the
middle atlantic coast.  A light to moderate flow on the back side of the
high will allow temperatures to be slightly warmer Tuesday with highs
in the lower 80s most areas and approaching middle 80s south.

Gulf moisture will spread back into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
An upper disturbance will move our way by Wednesday.  The NAM...GEMNH
and european models have trended a little quicker in spreading precip
our way late Tuesday night.   As a result will mention 20 percent POPS
as far east as INDY by 12Z Wednesday.

Models indicate best upward forcing will remain just northwest of our area
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Went with chance POPS most areas Wednesday and
likely POPS northwest and chance POPS elsewhere Wednesday night.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows in the lower
to middle 60s Tuesday night and around 70 Wednesday night.  Highs Wednesday
will be in the lower 80s north and middle 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night Through Monday/...

Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

ECMWF suggests mainly high pressure over the Southeastern United
States will strengthen and maintain it position through the
weekend. The main flow aloft will steer north of Indiana through
the period...streaming through the Great Lakes and into Ontario
and Quebec. This pattern should keep any systems or forcing well
north of the Hoosier State. Due to a lack of Dynamics and the High
pressure in place at the surface...would have liked to gone with a
dry forecast...however High dew points and diurnal heating is
resulting in superblend to include at least some low pops. To
account for this...kept some low pops through much of the
period...but tried to contain it mainly the afternoon hours.
Confidence for precip is low.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 221800z/...

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon and
into the evening as High pressure is centered over Central
Indiana. Any Diurnal CU will be lost this evening as daytime
heating wanes.

Dew Point depressions of 1-3 degrees...particularly at LAF...HUF
and BMG...along with Clear skies and light winds may lead to some
MVFR fog during the early morning hours on Tuesday.

As the High drifts farther east on Tuesday...fog will burn off as
heating resumes along with mixing on warmer southerly winds.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP



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