Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261852
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NW INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. RADAR SHOWS AM AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
APPEARED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS AND
AND SUGGEST THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER
ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
HRRR SHOW PRECIP MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
LITTLE TO NO HELP AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TEH BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AS SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...SO STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE TO ADD
IN A LOW POP SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A SLOWER MOVING
SYSTEM PER LATEST TRENDS.

AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY WENT COLDER THAN SUPERBLEND AND CLOSER TO THE
COLDER ECMWF /AND WPC/ AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR AT KIND AND KLAF THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS
ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND ON TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS LOW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
INDIANA TOWARDS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THEN EXITING
OUR REGION AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
DRIER AIR FARTHER EAST MAY PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIND AND KLAF.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS TO EXPAND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.  AFTER THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GOES...BY DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST UP TO 8 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JH

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