Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 230126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
927 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Near term for the rest of tonight has been updated below.


Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions through the day
Tuesday, then an upper level trough and a surface frontal system
will bring chances for rain through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain above average.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Clear skies will continue overnight as ridge of high pressure moves
east across our region. Overall current forecast with lows from the
mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest is on track.
Made a few minor tweaks to the grids...but no other updates are
needed at this time.


.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Focus is on chances for rain late in the period. Models are close
enough that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will provide dry conditions
into Tuesday. Some models try to bring in rain late Tuesday
afternoon with an upper disturbance, but believe they are overdoing
low level moisture (as is typical) and thus instability. Short range
ensembles are also drier, so will keep Tuesday dry.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, moisture will start to improve with
better southerly flow. Additional upper disturbances will move out
from the upper trough in the western USA and provide forcing. There
is too much uncertainty on when exactly these will impact the area,
so kept PoPs broadbrushed.

Went chance PoPs most areas during that period, with highest PoPs on
Wednesday when better instability and moisture arrive.

For temperatures, went warmer than guidance for highs given how
temperatures have overperformed today and expected warm advection
later in the week.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Active weather pattern takes shape during this period. ECMWF shows
a significant pattern change from the persistent trends of May.
Strong ridging begins to set up over the east coast during this
time. This results in a warm and moist southerly flow of air to
begin to push into the Ohio valley. ECMWF fails to show any well
organized waves pushing across Indiana during this time
period...however a couple of weak to marginal short waves look to
pass. This in combination with dew points climbing into the 60s
and daily highs expected in the 80s will result in daily chances
for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.


.AVIATION/Discussion for the 23/0000Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as high
pressure remains in place. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the southeast and then southwest through the
course of the TAF period. Sustained speeds will be up to 15 kts
with gusts up to 24 kts for a few more hours, then decrease to 5
to 10 kts for the remainder of the TAF period.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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