Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 201856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
156 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Warm temperatures will continue through the work week, with colder
weather arriving for the weekend. A front will bring rain chances
Tuesday, with a stronger frontal system bringing more rain Thursday
into Friday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1118 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Fog rapidly burned off across the area starting around 1030 and by
11 was gone just about everywhere so allowed the advisory to expire.
With the fog gone and any leftover low clouds rapidly disappearing
should see plenty of sunshine under partly cloudy skies for the
remainder of the day. This should allow for good warming and made no
changes to going forecast highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

A front will move into the area late tonight. Looks like
forcing/moisture won`t arrive until after midnight, so will keep the
evening dry. The better forcing/moisture really don`t arrive most
areas until Tuesday, so will go chance or lower PoPs for most of the

An upper trough and the surface front will move across the area on
Tuesday. Forcing and moisture look sufficient for likely PoPs most
areas during the morning. As the system exits, PoPs will lower
during the afternoon, with a lingering chance into Tuesday evening

Wednesday should be warm and dry with the area in between systems. A
surface low moving through the Great Lakes will bring a cold front
in on Wednesday night, but moisture and forcing are too limited for
any rain.

Went above MOS for highs in the west on Tuesday with that area
seeing more sun. Raised everywhere on Wednesday as guidance has been
too cool.


.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Monday/
Issued at 156 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Although models have some differences handling a late week and early
weekend system, all suggest it will be an active one with the
potential for strong convection Friday afternoon and evening, along
and ahead of the associated cold front. This will also bring a
change in the well above normal temperatures with seasonable weather
in the wake of the front starting Saturday.

Model instability progs all support thunder chances Thursday night
as a near-stationary front returns north as a warm front. Superblend
has the highest pops over our northern counties Thursday night and
Friday, closer to this front, which seems reasonable. Model CAPEs of
400 to 700 j/kg Friday afternoon and evening along with 50 knot low
level jet and strong upper support warrant SPC day5 outlooked area.

By Saturday, temperatures will be more late February-like with highs
in the 40s per blend looking good based on low level thermal progs
and cloud cover. Could see a few wraparound showers, possibly mixed
with snow north, as the system exits to the northeast. Saturday
night and Sunday look dry. The next chance of precipitation looks to
be Sunday night and Monday as a warm front approaches from the
south. Superblend suggests a trend of rain and snow becoming all
snow and then switching back to rain Monday morning. Confidence on
precipitation type, coverage and amounts are low this far out. But,
warm ground should prevent any significant snow accumulation, and
warming Monday afternoon would melt any that did occur.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the early overnight with
generally light SE winds. Ceilings will begin to lower after 09Z
as mid level moisture increases ahead of a shortwave trough. MVFR
conditions will set in around 12-15Z with chances for showers
through the day.




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