Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 141551
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1051 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL START IMPACTING THE AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN 1 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT RAIN MIXING IN WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. FURTHER OUT...A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1034 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

CURRENTLY SEEING A LULL IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM ACCUMULATING EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND WHERE UP TO HALF AN INCH WAS REPORTED. A COMPACT UPPER WAVE
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA TODAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN INDIANA STARTING AROUND NOON AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THERE. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH THE RAP
AND HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THEY SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES
FROM AROUND I-70 SOUTH WITH 3-4 INCHES SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO
COLUMBUS LINE AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS. BASED ON
THIS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
NORTHEAST...2 TO 3 CENTRAL AND 3 TO 4 SOUTH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW STARTING AROUND 2-3
PM AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 6 PM...BUT HAVE GIVEN THIS
A BIT OF CUSHION ON EITHER SIDE IN THE TIMING IN THE WSW. MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE ADVISORY BUT DID BUMP UP
AMOUNTS AND ADDED TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ABRUPTLY CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER MON
03Z AS MOISTURE DECREASES. SO...RAPIDLY DECREASED POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER SUN 06Z WITH JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING AS THAT
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. SO...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

FINALLY...A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE A TURN OVER TO SNOW...WHILE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS CAN EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY|/...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A FEBRUARY THAW
AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST . NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LINGERING FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS SETUP...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTING ITS INFLUENCE BY LATE DAY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG S/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIP FOR LATE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY FRIDAY...REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 924 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

IMPROVED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 17Z TO BETTER MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOISTURE STEADILY EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR REMAINS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS LIFT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MORNING IT WILL AID LOW
LEVEL SATURATION WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH BOTH KBMG AND KHUF MAY SEE BRIEF DROPS IN SNOW
TO IFR.

MUCH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS WAVE ALOFT. COMBINED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS...EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD WITH
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH LIFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HI-RES GUIDANCE
SHIFTS THE BAND OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW TO OUR EAST DURING THE
EVENING BUT PRESENCE OF FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS COURTESY OF THE
WAVE ALOFT SHOULD ENABLE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO DIMINISH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ028-
029-035>037-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH


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