Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 311335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
935 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

A cold front will sweep across Central Indiana today...bringing
chances for rain through the morning and early afternoon. Dry
weather is expected to return to the state late this afternoon and
this evening as high pressure builds across the region from the
upper midwest.

Outstanding late summer weather is then expected through the
holiday weekend as the strong high pressure system will dominate
Indiana`s weather through at least Monday. Dry weather...with low
humidity and slightly below normal temperatures are
expected....making for ideal weather for outdoor activities.


.NEAR TERM /Update for this morning/...

Issued at 926 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Isolated showers have developed Muncie in vicinity of diffuse
frontal boundary. Have focused higher pops more in that area.
For the near satellite shows developed cumulus in this shower
area and south of the East Fork White River in our south.

With weak frontal boundary slowly settling south across our
area...precipitable water axis on top of us...weak short wave
producing current Missouri convection heading our way...threat for
more shower/storm development can be expected today and mainly
this afternoon. Heavy downpours can be expected for some areas
as we remain in the tropical plume. Do not expect widespread
heavy rain and do not expect severe storms.

Temperature rises will stay on track in sunnier areas while
locations with fog and low stratus will hold steady until
break-up of these features before 11am. Still expecting highs near
or in the lower 80s while dewpoints remain near or in the low 70s.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...

Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Outstanding weather ahead. We would issue an Outstanding weather
advisory if we could.

GFS and NAM both suggest that the strong ridging over the Rockies
will make only slow progress eastward over the next few
days...placing Indiana and the Great Lakes in the clear...lee
side of this ridge. Strong Subsidence will be seen through the
period due to this upper flow...and the result at the surface will
be a strong...Canadian High pressure system slowly pushing south
in to the Great lakes through at least Saturday. Forecast
soundings reveal a dry column with convective temps in the lower
70s...which should be reached...however a strong mid level
inversion and mid level subsidence will just result in some flat
topped CU each afternoon. Thus will trend this period with Mostly
Sunny Days and Mostly Clear nights. Cool Northeast winds will
allow dew points to fall into the 50s as the tropical flow aloft
is steered well south of Indiana. Models also suggest Cold Air
advection continuing through at least Friday night. 850MB temps
look to fall to near 10C by Friday morning. Thus will trend low
temps cooler than MAVMOS...except in the Heat Island. Will stick
close to a blend on highs as Cold air advection and nearly full
sunshine counteract one another.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

High pressure and upper ridging will be over the area during the
long term yielding dry weather and slowly increasing temperatures.
Humidity could start to return on Monday with dew points getting
back into the mid 60s to around 70. High temperatures start below
normal on Saturday in the 70s but climb back to normal in the low
80s for Sunday and then back to above normal from Monday on.
Despite the arrival of September, summer is not over yet.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 311200z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 706 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Patchy fog/low stratus at the sites may be down in LIFR/VLIFR
territory for the next hour or two, but should rapidly burn off by
around 13z. After that expect mainly VFR conditions for the rest
of the day. Some scattered convection is possible by late morning
through the afternoon, but coverage is not expected to be more
than scattered so will use a VCTS to cover this for now. Tonight
drier air will be advecting in so at this time will not be
including fog for late tonight/tomorrow morning. Winds will
increase out of the NNW today but still looking at generally 10
kts or less.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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