Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 151712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RYAN

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