Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191447
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
945 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Dry weather can be expected through the work week as high pressure
dominates the weather for much of the period. A low pressure system
will bring rain chances to parts of the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will remain below normal through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Early this morning, stratocumulus were across central Indiana. The
clouds, albeit with a few large breaks, extended back into
Wisconsin. These clouds will be the forecast issue today. As usual,
many models are clearing out skies quickly, which is typical.

However, the Hi Res Rapid Refresh and the short range ensembles show
the clouds sticking around into at least early afternoon. Will trend
toward these models and go mostly cloudy through the morning for
most areas, then decreasing clouds during the afternoon.

There will still be some wind gusts across the area today with the
still relatively tight pressure gradient, but these should remain
around 20kt.

With the clouds and cold advection, temperatures will remain well
below average and only in the 30s. The model blend reflects this
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday night/
Issued at 231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The short term will remain quiet. High pressure will remain in
control through Monday. A cold front will move through on Tuesday,
but moisture is lacking. Thus do not expect any precipitation with
it.

Tuesday will be breezy with wind gusts of 20-30 mph across the area
as the cold front passes.

The model blend looks good for temperatures given expected
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

A large ridge of high pressure over the western two-thirds of the
nation will result in dry conditions for most of the extended
period. Temperatures will be below normal, but there will be a
very weak warming trend throughout the period as winds back to the
southwest. It won`t be until late in the long term period when
there are some low chances for rain chances across the northern
counties as a system tracks through the Great Lakes Region.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/1500Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 945 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

MVFR ceilings will prevail through late morning/possibly early
afternoon as low clouds linger. VFR should become the prevailing
flight category again though by early to late afternoon. VFR
conditions will then prevail through the entire TAF period. Winds
will be northwesterly and a bit breezy at first with sustained
speeds up to 12 kts and sporadic gusts around 18 to 22 kts. They
will, however, taper off by tonight and become southwesterly.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP



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