Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220215
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1015 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

High pressure will build in on Wednesday and bring a cold day to
central Indiana. Temperatures will then warm up late week into the
weekend, but along with the warmer temperatures will come frequent
chances for rain with multiple systems moving through. The chances
for rain will last into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Sprinkles had exited southeast portions of the forecast area
within the last hour and skies were clearing from the north as
high pressure builds south. 0130Z temps ranged from the upper 30s
in far northern counties to around 50 degrees in the south.

Few changes needed for the evening update as forecast in good
shape. Expect a steady decrease in clouds from the north over the
next few hours with mainly clear skies expected for the remainder
of the night. Progressively drier air will expand south into the
forecast area with the high overnight...and temperatures should
have no trouble falling into the 20s to lower 30s as a result.
Northerly winds will remain up at 10-15mph for most of the night.
Freeze Warnings continue for far southern counties where
vegetation is most sensitive.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

High pressure will keep dry and cold conditions across the area on
Wednesday, with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal
expected. Will go a little above the model blend with the plentiful
sunshine.

Clouds will increase Wednesday night into Thursday as warm advection
increases aloft. Although there will be decent isentropic lift
Thursday afternoon, the lowest levels of the atmosphere should be
dry enough to keep precipitation from reaching the ground.

A warm front will move through on Thursday night. By then, moisture
will have increased enough in the low levels for some low PoPs.

The area will be in the warm sector of a low pressure system on
Friday. Models are showing the potential for some low clouds at
least during the morning, with perhaps some drizzle. Warmer air will
move in, but am a bit concerned that low clouds might keep
temperatures down some. For now will just leave the intialization
alone and keep an eye on things.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Models indicate an upper ridge across central Canada and a couple
of cutoff upper lows which will affect our weather during the
extended period.   The first one will affect us over the weekend
and the second one will be late Monday and early Tuesday.
There will be a chance of precipitaion much of the extended period
with the possible exception of Friday night and again Sunday night
some areas.

Raised superblend temperatures a little southeast half Saturday as
we will be clearly in the warm sector and it could be a lot warmer
if models continue to trend slower with this weekends precipitation.
Otherwise superblend temperatures seemed reasonable most
other periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 220300Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Minor adjustments made based on current obs...otherwise no changes.

00Z discussion follows.

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Weak upper level wave passing through the region early this
evening but with dry air present through the lower levels...mid
level cloud deck and sprinkles are only impacts from the system
aloft. Have seen northerly winds occasionally gust above 20kts
with sustaineds at or above 10kts and expect that to continue for
another hour or two before diminishing.

Skies will clear by late evening as the wave departs to the
southeast and strong high pressure builds in. Deep subsidence
noted on model soundings and RH progs supports only minimal high
level clouds through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds
will veer to E/NE on Wednesday around 10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...Ryan



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