Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THEN ASIDE FROM SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS RETURNING TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...WITH A BAND OF RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE RAIN EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER THAT.

DON/T SEE A LOT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE POST FRONTAL
ZONE...SO SHOULD SEE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH THE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE
SOME RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

0845Z UPDATE...BASED ON TRENDS UPSTREAM...UPDATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE/SCATTERED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS PROJECT THIS WEAK COLD
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12-18Z TODAY AND
SINK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. EITHER
MAINTAINED OR INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS EARLY
TODAY...THEN GOING MOSTLY DRY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
MOVING IN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK EARLY TODAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE DRY...AND
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

ON THURSDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. SOME
WEAK LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FROM DRY TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE AREA FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON HALLOWEEN WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
SHOCK FOR TRICK OR TREATERS AS A COMPACT UPPER LOW DIVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WITH THE LOW...BUT WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY BY THE EVENING. THIS WILL
BE OF ONLY MODERATE CONSOLATION HOWEVER IN THE FACE OF NORTH WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 30 DEGREES OR
LESS ON FRIDAY EVENING.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL
IMPINGE UPON THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IMMINENT AT THE SITES WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE SITES. HOWEVER...THUNDER WILL BE CLEAR
OF LAF/HUF BY VALID TIME OF THE TAF...AND WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
IND/BMG. WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS FOR THE FIRST HOUR AT THOSE
SITES...WITH SHOWERS THEREAFTER FOR A TIME BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXPECT VFR STRATOCUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AND WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING TO THE 20KT RANGE AT TIMES. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS DIE DOWN...BUT REMAIN WESTERLY
OR NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

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