Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221044
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
645 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...
AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure to the north and low pressure to the southeast will
work together to dominate Indiana weather through Monday.
A cold front is forecast to approach Tuesday and cross our state
Wednesday. Thursday and Friday the cold front should change into a
warm front that will move north, traversing Hoosierland as it does.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Today and Tonight)...

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The main issue is when rain will end.

The latest GFS and NAM end precipitation considerably sooner than
earlier runs did. The latest HRR and cold clouds upstream on
satellite weigh against this. Consensus POPS look like a good
compromise. They are drier than earlier but not as much as the
GFS/NAM and associated guidance. This has some chance of rain
past 00Z, but everything over well before dawn.

The same system causing rain chances today will also cause
cloudy skies. There is strong guidance agreement about clouds
decreasing overnight as the chance of rain dwindles.

Given consensus seems to have the best POPs, it should also do
well with temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Monday night)...

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Skies should be mostly clear given excellent model agreement
about a persistent very dry northeast flow. Gradual warming is on
tap as long sunny days modify the air. There is good alignment
between temperature guidance. The consensus forecast should be
accurate to within a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather Tuesday.
Wednesday will be wet as low pressure moves across the upper
midwest into the great lakes and a trailing cold front moves
across Indiana.   Thursday will be mostly dry as another
weak high pressure area moves by.  Then another low pressure and
frontal system will move our way Thursday night and early
Friday brining a chance of showers.

Temperatures will be above normal during the long term as a mean
long wave upper ridge remains along the east coast and in fact
temperatures could approach 80 some areas Tuesday and again Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 221200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR through the period.  High pressure will remain over the
upper midwest and great lakes as low pressure tracks from the
lower Mississippi valley to the Carolinas.

Mid clouds will be the rule central and southern sections with
thick high clouds in the north.  Light showers will occur over
southern areas and may spread as far north as KIND later today.
Clouds will clear tonight as low pressure moves on to the east.

Winds will northeast around 12 knots and gusts to 20 knots today
decreasing to around 10 knots late today and tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JK



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