Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140225
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1024 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

High pressure over the Ohio valley will bring dry weather to
Central Indiana tonight and Saturday. A low pressure system and
associated cold front will move through the region on late
Saturday night and on Sunday morning...brining showers and
possibly a thunderstorm to Central Indiana.

High pressure will then return to central Indiana on Sunday night
and Monday...brining dry weather and seasonable temperatures for
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Short term model data suggests some increase in mid level cloud
later tonight under an increasing warm advection pattern.

Current forecast still looks in good shape. No updates planned at
this time. Previous discussion follows.

Surface analysis early this morning shows large high pressure
stretching from the Great Lakes across the Ohio valley to the
deep south. Low pressure was found across Kansas. A warm from
extended northeast from the low across Iowa toward Wisconsin.
GOES16 shows cloud exiting central Indian leading to mostly clear
skies. Southerly flow was in place with temperatures rising
through the 60s.

Southwest flow is expected to persist tonight aloft...with little
in the way of dynamics. Time heights and forecast soundings
suggest a dry column tonight. As low pressure spins up in the
plains southerly flow is expected to persist overnight...providing
mixing. This warmer southerly flow should prevent any fog. Thus
will little moisture...ongoing warm air advection and all the
forcing to the north and west...will trend toward a dry forecast
along with low temperatures at or above the forecast builder
blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The main weather feature here will be a quick moving cold front
expected to pass on Saturday night and Sunday.

Dry weather will be expected to persist across much on Saturday
and Saturday evening. GFS suggests a SW flow continuing across the
area...with little in the way of upper support across the most of
the area. However the GFS does show a quick moving short wave
pushing through Central Illinois toward Northwest Indiana during
the afternoon. Due to this feature...some low chance pops may be
needed in the LAF area...although confidence is low.
Otherwise...forecast soundings show a dry column with unreachable
convective temperatures...with should just lead to some passing CI
within the quick flow aloft. 850mb temps look to soar toward 15C
and with warm SW flow in place and Central Indiana clearly in the
warm sector...will trend highs on Sunday at or above the forecast
builder blend.

The quick SW flow containing dynamics begins to sag SE on
Saturday night as a larger wave over the upper midwest digs south
into the Great Plains and Ohio valley. Meanwhile Surface Low
Pressure over the Plains pushes to the Great lakes and begins
dragging a cold front toward central Indiana. The cold front and
plentiful moisture ahead of it look to arrive after 06Z
Sunday...before exiting between 15Z and 18Z. Forecast soundings
show good lower level saturation and Time height hint at good
lift. Thus will trend pops at or above the forecast builder
blends...particularly across the NW prior to 12Z and across the SE
after 12Z Sunday. This timing set up should allow for a mainly
dry Saturday night across much of Central Indiana. Given the warm
air advection and expected clouds and rain on Saturday
Night...will trend lows at or above the forecast builder lows.

Big air mass chance in the wake of the front as 850mb temps look
to fall to near 2C. Models suggest strong subsidence building
across Indiana in the wake of the front on Sunday afternoon and
this is expected to persist through Monday. Meanwhile at the
surface strong high pressure over the southern plains extends a
ridge northeast toward Indiana and forecast soundings show a very
dry column. Thus will trend to Mostly clear nights and Mostly
sunny days through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The coming work week will be much more like fall with prolonged
dry weather and mild temperatures as high pressure dominates the
area. Highs should gradually climb from the mid 60s into the low
to mid 70s during the week.

Blended initialization handled things well and only minor tweaks
were required.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 140300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1024 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Appears crossover temperatures will be met during the early
morning hours of Saturday, so some visibility restrictions in fog
are possible after about 140500Z. Confidence in widespread or
prolonged IFR restrictions is low at this time as there should be
a light gradient overnight, which may help to keep the low levels
of the air mass mixed up.

Otherwise, no significant cloud cover tonight, with surface winds
at or below 6 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JASON
NEAR TERM...JASON/JAS
SHORT TERM...JASON
LONG TERM...VORHEES
AVIATION...JAS



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