Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS OUR
AREA WEAKENS.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  DRY COLD WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT & SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THOUGH TO LOWER TEMPS FURTHER DUE TO ANY
ADDITIONAL CLEARING. SO...WILL KEEP FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE INDICATES STRATUS HAD CLEARED OR WAS CLEARING OVER MUCH OF
OUR REGION ALONG AND EAST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO TIPTON LINE.
MEANWHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.  SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ON TO THE
EAST.  IN MOST AREAS WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ONCE AGAIN A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP TYPE WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY.  MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THE GFS IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS WHICH IS CLOSE TO
AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND THE GFS.  MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW COULD SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY.  1000 TO 850
MB AND 1000 TO 700 MB THICKNESS FAVOR MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH OF INDY
SUNDAY WITH MIXED PRECIP FROM INDY NORTHWARD...EXCEPT MOSTLY ALL
SNOW FAR NORTH.  AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY...COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.  AS FAR AS SNOW
AMOUNTS WENT CLOSE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO
AN INCH IN THE INDY AREA AND ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING FAR SOUTH.  ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z MONDAY AND WITH DRY WEATHER
AGAIN MONDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...A MOS
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER PERIODS. MEANWHILE
NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD END UP A BIT COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.

MODELS TRY TO GENERATE SOME QPF WITH AN EXITING CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON LOCATION AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE. SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY WEAK AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. RATHER THAN INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...DECIDED TO
KEEP FORECAST CONSISTENT AND DRY.

MODELS HAVE SPED UP NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AS WELL AS GFS ENSEMBLES NOW SHOW PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS ADDED SOME LOW POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS WARMING ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...BUT MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY...BUT THEN
COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD SEE MVFR
CEILINGS AT KIND AND KBMG SCATTERING OUT AND LIFTING FOR GOOD BY 8Z
AND EARLIER AT KHUF AND KLAF. UNTIL THEN THEY COULD BOUNCE AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND LOW END MVFR. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY WESTERLY AROUND 8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE LOW
CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP

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