000
FXUS63 KIND 161637
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.   THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TEMPORARILY END TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.  HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY AND DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT US LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN
AREA OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AIR WAS WORKING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...AS RADAR ECHOS
WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRYING THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COOL FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THUS HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR TWO THINGS IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...RAISING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EXPECTED
PROPAGATION OF THE SHRA OVER ILLINOIS TO PLACES LIKE
BLOOMINGTON...SEYMOUR AND COLUMBUS. SECONDLY...LOWERING THE POPS
ACROSS THE NW AND SLOWLY PUSHING THAT TREND SOUTHEAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

ONGOING FORECAST TEMPS LOOK OK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF DRYING US OUT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY.  WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTH.  SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BY THE RULE MONDAY
EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.

THE GFS HAS BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND AS A RESULT
KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF OUR REGION WELL
INTO TUESDAY.  WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH DRIES US OUT MORE
QUICKLY.

FINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MID WEEK TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL /MID 70S TO AROUND 80/ WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WARM THEREAFTER UNDER GOOD WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING UPPER SHORTWAVES TO RIDE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG NOT SURE THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SIGNS TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY ALLBLEND BUT IS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR BMG WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO RUMBLE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THIS TAF WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. AS FOR THE REST OF THE SITES...THEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
WITH ONLY A VCSH. SOME OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN
VFR AND MFVR IN THE LAST HOUR BUT THE TREND IS GENERALLY FOR VFR.

LATER TONIGHT NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT GFS IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
CEILINGS. WILL GO MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER KEEP THE CEILINGS AT VFR. NOT ENTIRELY SURE
WHERE THE NAM IS BRINGING THESE LOWER CEILING FROM. IMPROVED
CONDITIONS TO VFR BY 14-15Z MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF

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