Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 270644
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1117 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN OLD FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN CHANCES
BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS TO DEFINITE AND LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON 08Z AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AT THAT
POINT THOUGH AS FORCING WEAKENS ALOFT.

INSERTED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.
SOME VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO BELOW 1 MILE IN PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL PROJECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER
70S.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER ENERGY PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER THE OLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS ALL NIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

OLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD IN AT THE SAME TIME. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST COOL ENOUGH THAT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...BUT DRY FAR
EAST /FARTHEST FROM THE OLD FRONT/.

UPPER HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MID LEVELS WARM.
THIS PLUS LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD STOP MOST
CONVECTION. DECIDED TO GO DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER
AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT THE ODDS
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. UPPER HEIGHTS FALL WEDNESDAY
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND SO
WENT HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS.

GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS FOR TEMPERATURES. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR TO OVER 100 TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE USED IN A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE MODELS CONCUR IN HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER MOST OF
THE TIME. THIS MEANS MINOR VARIATION BETWEEN THEM WONT MAKE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 2703000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARCS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES AFTER 14Z-15Z.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CONTINUES TO WANE AND
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 06Z-07Z. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAIN AT LAF AND IND LIKELY TO RESULT IN FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BE LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS AFT 10Z.

DUE TO THE NEW MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LAF AREA WHERE MORE RAIN WAS RECEIVED.

AFTER FOG BURNS OFF AFT 14Z-16Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATE FAVORABLE...STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THUS WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS FOR NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.