Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 050250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING OVER MOST AREAS WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE A
FEW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL DROP MINIMUMS A DEGREE OR
TWO SOME AREAS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR REGION MOVES TO THE EAST WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION BY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 913 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME 10 KFT
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS OUT OF THE
WNW BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THAT COULD MOVE
IN TO THE SITES SOMETIME IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME BUT MODELS DEPICT
THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO HIGHER
PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT
ISSUANCE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP


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