Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA...SO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY RAIN
AT THIS TIME.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT
POSSIBLE TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND COLD ADVECTION. BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS AS A RESULT.

DID NOT CHANGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS GOOD
GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ONLY BY TUESDAY THAT THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALLOWING A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED AND THUS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER HIGHS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND AROUND 70 FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME MOISTURE MAY PUSH NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY THE END OF DAY 7 AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE RETREAT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE THIS
YET.  EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 7.  IF
THE GFS IS RIGHT...LOW POPS MAY BEGIN AFTER DAY 7.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +13 TO +17 THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST BKN VFR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AMID COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE ON INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE
SHOWS AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA AND THIS
WILL PERSIST TO MID MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. AFTERWORDS EXPECT
VFR CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER TODAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER 03Z.

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.   WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
NORTH AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/JP

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