000
FXUS63 KIND 070754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR
WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING A WELL
DESERVED TASTE OF SPRING TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STORM
SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK HOWEVER WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. RH PROGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT PATCHY SHALLOW FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS. BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION SOUTH WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FOG
FOR NOW.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY NORTH
HALF BASED ON STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND GIVEN THAT BOTH NAM AND
RUC MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH HALF
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT/SAT NIGHT AND TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN A PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FOR FRIDAY. WITH RIDGING ALOFT ADDING ITS WEIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON...STAGE IS SET FOR A FANTASTIC
DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ONLY SLOWLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS...EVEN THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY...DRY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES SATURDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DEPARTING EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY COLLAPSING
SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL FORCING IS UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH ONLY A
SHORT PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY AS IT
DROPS SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEE NO REASON TO GO ANY
HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ENTIRE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP TO FALL AS LIGHT RAIN FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A SHORT PERIOD OF FLURRIES/
LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE A DUSTING AT BEST...WITH PRECIP DONE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.

TEMPS...HAVE TRENDED ABOVE MOS FOR HIGHS BY 3-4 DEGREES BASED
ON THOUGHTS ABOVE...COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT DAYTIME TEMPS HAVE
BEEN OVERACHIEVING MOS GUIDANCE MAXES THE LAST FEW DAYS. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL WARM INTO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARDS
WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 40S. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 070900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

TWEAKING CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY FOR UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE KIND AND KLAF HAVE JUST DROPPED TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE THIS DEVELOP WITHIN
A COUPLE HOURS AT KBMG AND LATER AT KHUF. WHILE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR...SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 070900Z-071500Z.
GIVEN VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED FASTER THAN GUIDANCE PREDICTED WILL
GO AHEAD AND TEMPO IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR DURING THIS WINDOW.

NO CEILING OR WIND ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH 071800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

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