Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 180645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
245 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Low chances for rain will linger into this evening as a front exits
the area. After a dry day Friday, an upper system will bring more
chances for rain Friday night and Saturday. Look for warm and
increasingly humid conditions Sunday and Monday, before a cold front
brings cooler conditions for mid to late week along with some rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Latest trends continue to lean toward a dry forecast for tonight,
so no changes were needed. Current forecast is on track. Overnight
lows are expected to bottom out in the low 60s (west) to upper
60s (east). Updated grids have been sent.

Drier air will move in behind the front overnight providing dry
conditions. The model blend looks good for low temperatures

Confidence is low to medium in rain chances into this evening, but
medium to high in dry conditions overnight.


.SHORT TERM.../Friday through Sunday/
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Central Indiana will be in between systems on Friday, so will
continue with a dry forecast.

Friday night into Saturday an upper trough will move through the
area. An upper jet will provide additional forcing. The timing of
the system isn`t great for instability to aid in convection though.
Will keep PoPs in chance category or lower and time the highest PoPs
overnight Friday night and during the first half of the day
Saturday, based on expected timing of the system.

High pressure will then build in and keep the weather dry across the
area Saturday night into Sunday.

The model blend temperatures look good given expected conditions.

Confidence is medium in rain chances and timing through the short


.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Ensembles in good agreement during this period. Subtropical ridge
extending through the Tennessee Valley early in the period is
expected to get suppressed as short wave energy digs southeast
through the Great Lakes towards the middle of next week. This will
result in a deep long wave trough over the eastern sections of the
country by the middle of next week.

Ensembles are keying in on Monday night through Wednesday as the
most likely periods for precipitation as the short wave and
associated cold front moves through the local area. Will go with
PoPs for showers and thunderstorms in these periods. Dry conditions
expected in the remainder of the periods.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1144 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period as
central Indiana falls between two systems. Winds will generally be
west/southwesterly at 5 to 12 kts.




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