Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190500
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
100 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Low pressure was over the northern great lakes with a cold front
extending south across central Indiana.  This front will produce
a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms early this evening
as it continues on to the east.   Otherwise...cooler and drier
air will spread east across our region tonight.

An upper trough move into the great lakes and couple of upper
disturbances may produce low chance of thunderstorms over
northern portions Monday afternoon and a slight chance of showers
over northern and eastern sections Tuesday.

High pressure will dominate our weather mid week.  A frontal
system move our way and bring a chance of thunderstorms later
next week.   There is some uncertainty between models whether this
front will stall across Indiana or move on to the east early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Radar indicated scattered showers were beginning to develop across
our region and they may become a little more numerous next few hours
along with an isolated thunderstorm.  High resolution model keeps
some showers in our far southeast into this evening and will add low
chance POPS southeast early tonight.

Otherwise...cooler and dry weather will occur overnight as a cold
front across central Indiana moves on to the east.   Models indicate
high pressure over the northern plains will build into the middle
Mississippi valley by Monday.   With drier air spreading in... do
not expect fog to be a problem overnight.

Lows will range from the upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s south.
 In most cases stayed close to a MOS blend on temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

An upper trough will be across the great lakes Monday and Tuesday.
A couple of weak upper disturbances rotating around the south side
of this system...along with day time heating may produce limited
afternoon convection Monday and Tuesday afternoon.  Will mention a
slight chance of afternoon thundershowers over north and central
sections Monday afternoon and a slight chance of showers north and
east sections Tuesday afternoon.   Decided to leave out mention of
thunder Tuesday as the SREF only indicates 5% chance of thunder
then.

A high pressure ridge over Kentucky and Tennessee and rising heights
as the upper trough moves on to the east will provide quiet and dry
weather Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday and
the lower to middle 80s Wednesday.   Lows will be in the upper
50s... except lower 60s southwest Tuesday night.  Overall Superblend
seem to have a decent handle on temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The long term begins with surface high pressure and brief upper
ridging across the area. This should move off to the east/southeast
by Thursday night and allow a frontal system to approach. Once this
system approaches models show disagreement over the timing/placement
of the surface front, and this will have a big impact on
precip/thunder chances. There are some indications the front could
stall out and provide a continuing forcing source, thus making
precip probable until it finally sweeps out. However, this is still
highly uncertain and thus for now will keep a chance for
thunderstorms going for most areas until Sunday. At that point there
is general agreement that the front will move out.

Model initialization temperatures favor a cooling pattern during the
long term, and this makes sense with a front hanging around near the
forecast area and at least providing some cloud cover to inhibit
warming.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR through the period.

Surface high pressure will nudge into the area in the wake of a
cold front exiting the region.

A few showers cannot be ruled out Monday as a broad upper trough
swings through the Great Lakes. This will merit no more than a VCSH
mention at this time, however, and will limit this to LAF.

Winds will generally be west/northwesterly through the period...as
high as 10-12KT at times.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD



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