Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 212228
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THUS...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR AS STRATOCUMULUS ERODES. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS MINS ARE REASONABLE...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXCLUDE A PATCHY FROST MENTION AS
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR 4-5KT...WHICH WILL WORK
AGAINST FROST FORMATION. ADDITIONALLY...MIN TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST FOR FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

FROST IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S. AS SUCH...WILL CARRY PATCHY FROST MENTION WHERE
NECESSARY. MAY NEED A HEADLINE DECISION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY WARM AS THICKNESSES RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE
ACCEPTABLE ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE
MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CU DECK SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND OR MOVE EAST AFTER 02Z AS UPPER LOW PEELS AWAY TO THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE CLEAR PER RH TIME
SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...MK

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