Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 290652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MIDWEST...IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TODAY. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL START MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DEGREE OF LIFT AND PROGGED INSTABILITY NOT TOO
EXCESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
ALL AREAS TODAY...STARTING AROUND MIDDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOK OK FOR THE
MOST PART...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN JET. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA AS TO WHERE
THIS CUTOFF WILL OCCUR...ANYWHERE FROM MISSOURI TO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR REASONABLE...SO ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE OF MOISTURE FROM ERIKA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
COME INTO PLAY IN THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEK. WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BRINGING SOME ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND BRING MOISTURE NORTH THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INITIALIZATION FOLLOWED THIS TREND AS
WELL AND JUST NEEDED SOME QUALITY CONTROL TWEAKS. TEMPERATURE-WISE
LOOKING AT HIGHS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM THE
INITIALIZATION AND THESE LOOK GOOD. HIGHS IN THE 90S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ATTAINABLE IF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
DOESN/T MAKE IT THIS WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG
AT BAY...BUT IF BREAKS LAST LONG ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT
THE OUTLIER SITES.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR STORMS THEN.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/JH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.