000
FXUS63 KIND 061102
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

WAVES RIDING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD SATURDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WINTRY MIX TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.

COLD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS COMMON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

SEVERAL FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL PRODUCE BROAD FORCING ACROSS THE AREA AS CAN BE
SEEN IN Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS.

GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE BANDING OF HEAVIER
SNOW WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. CROSS SECTIONS OF
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SHOW INSTABILITY PRESENT AS WELL...ADDING TO THE
BANDING.

HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST IS THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA. SHARP CUTOFF OF SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS EVENT HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WITH AREAS AROUND LAFAYETTE AND
KOKOMO SEEING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW. THIS CUTOFF WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING BEFORE SNOW FROM NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS.

LACK OF SNOWFALL SO FAR IN THE NORTHWEST WILL LOWER EVENT TOTALS
THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ADVISORY SINCE THIS IS ONE OF THE FIRST
SNOWFALLS OF THE SEASON...BUT WILL MENTION LOWER AMOUNTS.

ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THE PRECIPITATION REMAINED
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. DUAL POL RADAR SHOWS THAT MIXING OF SNOW AND SLEET
IS STILL LIKELY OCCURRING THERE AT THIS TIME. THE SLOW CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW WILL AFFECT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THERE.

HOWEVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE IN A FAVORABLE AREA
FOR HEAVIER SNOW TODAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE...SO AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE
HIGH.

GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE WENT CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE ONLY WENT LIKELY. OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AREA STILL LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 8
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WHERE BANDING SETS UP.

FORCING RAMPS DOWN QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
SYSTEM EXITS SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WENT NEAR OR COOLER THAN MOS WITH THE SNOW
FALLING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN WENT NEAR OR COLDER THAN MOS AS SNOW
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD
COVER BREAKS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A BLEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT COLD TEMPERATURES. WENT NEAR OR BELOW MOS WITH SNOW
COVER AROUND.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LOOKS LIKE TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO LOWERED
POPS A BIT AND CONFINED THEM A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. WENT NEAR OR
A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT US SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ALMOST ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING FROM 1 THOUSAND TO 7 THOUSAND FEET AROUND
SUNDAY...SO I HAVE THE ZERO TO -2 CELSIUS AT 850 MB AS A CUTOFF
BETWEEN LIQUID AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION.  MODELS INDICATE THE ZERO
LINE WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER 18Z SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO NEAR A VINCENNES TO INDY TO
WINCHESTER LINE BY 06Z MONDAY. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP...FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SNOW IS POSSIBLE MANY AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  AS A RESULT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND QUITE
COLD.  ANY SNOW COVER THAT DEVELOPS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW ALL BLEND
VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 061200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT FRI DEC 6 2013

SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.  LOOK FOR THIS SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW TO BEGIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
WORSEN TO LIFR AT KBMG...IFR AT KIND AND KHUF AND MOSTLY MVFR AT
KLAF BY LATE MORNING.

AFTER THIS SECOND SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...SNOW WILL END MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY
EVENING AND BY LATE EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLEARING
SKIES MOST AREAS TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH UP TO 12 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INZ037-
039>042-044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
INZ021-028>031-035-036-038-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

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