Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MFVR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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