Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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755
FXUS63 KIND 050739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP



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