Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 312034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATED/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL CU
SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS HEATING IS LOST. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP/JP


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