Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 271811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
211 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

The LONG TERM section has been updated below.


Issued at 630 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Scattered Showers will end by late morning as a cold front
over Indiana moves on to the east.

Low pressure will deepen over the southern plains Friday and
move towards the great lakes over the weekend.  A warm front
will develop over the Ohio valley and move north by Saturday
producing heavy rainfall and a chance of storms.  This
will be followed by a cold front late Sunday.

Finally a third system will bring a chance of more showers by the
middle of next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

The cold front has just moved through IND and will be east of the
forecast area by 16z. Temperatures fell around 10 degrees overnight
into this morning in the wake of the front. Temperatures will
struggle to reach 60 degrees in the wake of the front over west
central Indiana.

Lowered pops and ended them earlier per radar trends.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Low pressure was over northeast Illinois and a cold front extended
south along the Indiana Illinois border.  Showers and a few thunder-
storms will be the rule this morning as the cold front moves east.
High res models indicate showers will diminish with time and will
go with high chance POPS east and central sections after 12Z.
Showers will end all areas by midday as cold front moves rapidly
to the east.

It will be mostly cloudy breezy and cool after the cold front moves
through.  Temperatures may fall into the upper 40s over western
sections this morning and struggle to reach 60 this afternoon.
Raised high temperatures slightly over east sections today and went
near or slightly below a MOS blend west.  Lows tonight will be from
the middle 40s north to around 50 south which is near a MOS blend.

A fairly tight pressure gradient will be across our area today
with winds of 15 to 20 knots and gusts to 20 to 25 knots.


.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Models are in fairly good agreement and will go with a blended
solution working fairly well.

Models develop a warm front across Kentucky Friday and move it slowly
north by Saturday as low pressure strengthens over the southern
plains and eventually moves into the middle and upper Mississippi
valley by Sunday.  Showers will develop Friday and become heavy at
times late Friday night through the weekend.   Flooding will the
main concern as lots of gulf moisture moves north into the Ohio
valley and strong UVV occurs along the warm front.

SPC has the southern half of Indiana in a slight risk of severe
weather Friday.  But I believe this is too far north Friday as front
will be still south of the Ohio river.   Will go with an increasing
chance of thunderstorms Friday night as the warm front starts to
lift to the north.
I believe Saturday will see a better threat of severe weather as the
warm front moves north across our region.

in most cases stayed close to a MOS Blend on temperatures Friday and
Friday night and went slightly above in the south Saturday as warm
front starts to lift north.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

A cold front Sunday night will usher in a cool and unsettled week
for central Indiana. There could be some heavy rain Sunday night. An
upper system will remain close enough for some PoPs across the area
Monday and for some areas Tuesday.

Meanwhile, another upper low will develop mid week. Models differ in
timing and location, so see no reason to change from the model
initialization at this point. This results in low PoPs most areas
Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 27/1800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Good confidence that MVFR and possibly brief IFR ceilings will
persist this afternoon based on latest satellite and ob trends as
well as models. Then, moderate confidence that MVFR conditions will
improve to VFR 21z-23z.

Winds will shift southwest to south after 04z. Wind speeds will drop
from near 15 knots to less than 10 knots. Finally, winds will back
to southeast near 10 knots after 14z.





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