Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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528
FXUS63 KIND 162000
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

A mild and quiet day is expected today under the influence of high
pressure off to the southeast. A quick moving upper level wave
will bring some rain showers to the area Sunday, with low chances
for rain or drizzle lingering Sunday night into Monday as
additional weak disturbances aloft pass through the region. The
next widespread chance for precipitation will come toward week`s
end as a frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 952 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Surface analysis late this morning shows broad high pressure in
place across the southeastern states. This was allowing a
warmer...southwest flow of air into Indiana. GOES16 shows clear
skies across the forecast area and the radar was quiet.

Forecast soundings this afternoon reveal a dry column through the
afternoon with unreachable convective temperatures. With good
subsidence in place...mostly sunny skies will be expected through
the afternoon. Given our warmer southwest flow...warmer highs than
the past few days will be expected. Have stuck close to the
forecast builder blend which appears to have a good handle on the
situation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night /...
Issued at 350 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

The main focus for the short term will be Sunday, as a compact
upper level wave moves through the area. Precipitation will be
a good bet, and while a brief mix of rain and snow at precip onset
cannot entirely be ruled out due to evaporational cooling effects,
this is looking less likely than previously and will keep grids
all rain. Even if a few flakes were to drop, the ground will be
well warmed by today`s warmth and would anticipate no impact from
this.

Forecast soundings become drier aloft Sunday evening and beyond,
but blends do hold onto some very low pops across portions of the
area, particularly Monday morning as a weak wave passes through
the region. Could see a few showers or perhaps some drizzle and
will hold onto these low pops for now.

Consensus temperatures generally appeared in the ballpark per low
level thermal progs and required few tweaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

ECMWF pushes a quick moving area of lower pressure across Kentucky
and Tennessee on Tuesday Night through Thursday. This feature
should bring precipitation to areas south of Central
Indiana as our area remains dry and under the influence of high
pressure stretching from the upper midwest through the Great
Lakes.

Better Chances for precipitation look to arrive on Friday as a
low pressure system moves from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes...dragging a cold front across Indiana. Forecast builder has
inserted pops here which seems quite reasonable. Overall look for
temperatures to be at or above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 161800Z Tafs/...

Issued at 1218 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFr Conditions are expected for much of this TAF period.

SW flow in place across the forecast area will continue to provide
a flow of warm and dry air to the taf sites. A Strong pressure
gradient in place across the area will result some gusty winds
this afternoon. Time heights and forecast soundings reveal a dry
column through Sunday morning. Thus VFR until at least then.

A strong short wave will then push into the Ohio valley on Sunday
morning and afternoon. Ample moisture and lift will be available.
Time heights and forecast soundings trend toward saturation and
precipitation after 18Z Sun. Thus a trend toward MVFR CIGS and
rain will be expected after 15Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP



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