Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251837
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
238 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...STAYING WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. HOWEVER AS THE LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...REACHING
NORTHERN INDIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA
FAIL TO SHOW ANY DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER WITHIN THE COLUMN. FARTHER
ALOFT...MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN A OVERRUNNING SITUATION
OVERNIGHT LOOKS WEAK...AS 850 WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY AROUND 30
KNOTS OF SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING INTO THE FRONT. THUS CONFIDENCE
FOR POPS TONIGHT IS LOW. WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP...MAINLY LATE
ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL TRY TO TREND
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST PERIOD ELSEWHERE...COLLABORATION WILLING.

AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND THE COLD FRONT FAILS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z...STILL LINGERING WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN POISED TO SET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGING RIDING SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BEST
FORCING FOUND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND OVER 2K
J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE. PWATS ARE OVER AN INCH. THUS WILL TREND
POPS HIGH ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING IS BEST. GIVEN THE MIX OF SUN IN
THE MORNING AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAVMOS.

A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING
ALOFT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HEATING IS LOST. GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
FORCING LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS LINGER WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST A DEEPER LOW WITHIN THE LOW ALOFT OVER NEBRASKA. A
NEGATIVELY TILED SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THAT TIME WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
OVER 4.5 G/KG. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...KEEPING LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS
AND HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND THE HUDSON BAY WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
ACROSS TENNESSEE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.   A COUPLE AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ONE WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING
AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.  THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN
OHIO TUESDAY.  THE 12Z GFS AND GEMNH MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE EURO BEGINS RAIN CHANCES 6 TO 12 HOURS SOONER.
WILL TWEAK THE BLENDED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OTHER PERIODS.

STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
NORTH AND CENTRAL TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND LOWS FROM 45 TO 50 NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME AREAS COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER MINNESOTA WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

FOR TODAY EXPECT SCT CU AROUND 6 THOUSAND WITH BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.  MODELS HINT THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS MOSTLY VCSH BEGINNING AT KLAF AFTER
07Z AND MOST OTHER SITES A FEW HOURS LATER.  LEFT OUT VCTS FOR NOW AS
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE ONLY MARGINAL.  COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
SOME AREAS TOO.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
SOME MODELS HINT THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY
AND DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TUESDAY.  HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT KLAF AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



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