Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

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