Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 150503
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BEFORE A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ANOTHER LARGE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL CONTROL
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW POINT TEMPS
WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. RADAR WAS QUIET.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HIGH CLOUD SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO
INVADE LATE TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA WEAKENS AS THE
HIGH DEPARTS. STILL SEVERAL HOURS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN RURAL AREAS. THUS HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE GRIDS HAVE A
VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CARRY LOW END LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST NEARER THE UPPER TROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY.

ON TEMPS...SLIGHTLY COOLER MOS APPEARS BEST DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
WITH GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS LIKELY...AND CONSENSUS NUMBERS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS LOOK BEST ON MINS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE LIKELY MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL AND DRY AND THEN BECOME
WARMER NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES
INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
INITIALIZED WITH ALLBLEND AND ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WILL JUST BARELY BE REACHED IN THE
RURAL AREAS AS SUNRISE APPROACHES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG ARE
PROBABLE AFTER ABOUT 150900Z IN THOSE AREAS. WIDESPREAD OR PROLONGED
IFR RESTRICTIONS DON/T APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS POINT AS CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY BE REACHED. MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO END WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...SOME LAYERED CLOUD COVER AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDAY HOURS ON MONDAY...WITH
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL DEVELOPING AFTER 151800Z. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME 200-220 AT 8-10 KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JAS/JH

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