Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 270708
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY
AND BRING LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED QUICKLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT ARE
LINGERING AROUND THE INDY AND MUNCIE AREAS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS
NECESSARY. CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE ACROSS INDY/MUNCIE EVENTUALLY AS WELL.

NOT SURE ABOUT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH CLEAR AREAS LAST NIGHT NOT
SEEING ANY FOG. HOWEVER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME
MODELS STILL SUGGESTING IT...CANNOT JUSTIFY REMOVAL OF THE FOG
EITHER.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AND CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AS
CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN OVER THE AREA AND BRING SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIS WILL LEAVE CENTRAL INDIANA WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT
THE SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF ONLY 1-3 DEGREES SHOULD
LEAD TO FOG FORMATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE THOUGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS/STRATOCU THAT HUNG AROUND LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...SO
AT THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IF SKIES DO CLEAR MAY NEED TO
INCREASE INTENSITY/AREAL EXTENT OF FOG IN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
EAST COAST AND AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS THOUGHT THE
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH
LOOKED GOOD. THIS WAS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE
INITIALIZATION TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY BUT SHOULD SEE
WARMING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK TO NORMAL
AROUND THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THURSDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TYPICAL LATE SUMMER REGIME SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

REMNANTS OF UPPER WAVE TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. PRESENCE OF THE
NEARBY WAVE ALOFT AND A WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SUPPORTS
MAINTAINING AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LIKELY TO IMPACT LOCATIONS IN FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST U S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND TRACK REMAIN HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AT THIS POINT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HERE LOCALLY THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGING ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW LIMITING ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY WARM AND DRY FORECAST
WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR OR WORSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT BMG WHERE THE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD WAS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...HAD BASICALLY THE SAME SETUP LAST NIGHT...AND FOG DID NOT
DEVELOP. SO WITH THAT IN MIND AND ANOTHER DAY OF NO RAINFALL...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING STRATOCU. LATER
TODAY...CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 4K FEET.
THEN...CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT EAST AFTER
15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...MK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.