Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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279
FXUS63 KIND 210800
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A departing ridge of high pressure will provide one more quiet day
across central Indiana, before an approaching frontal system
returns chances for rain to the area late tonight into the middle
of next week. Temperatures in the wake of the system will turn
sharply cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Broad southwest flow aloft will develop across the area today as a
ridge of high pressure moves off to the east. As a result, expect
more mid and high level cloud cover today as moisture streams
northward from the Gulf. Still should get a decent amount of
filtered sunshine, so will likely see temperatures rise well into
the 70s yet again. Consensus temperatures were generally in the
ballpark with minor tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Models have been trending slower with the arrival of precipitation
from the coming slow moving frontal system. As a result have made
similar adjustments in grids, with first pops in the far west
after 09Z tonight. Models differ somewhat in their handling of a
closed upper level low that breaks off from the sharp upper trough
over the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night into Monday, and
then is pulled northeast as a more substantial upper level trough
drops into the region. There is general agreement in a logical
progression however, with the development of the secondary system
slowing passage of the original front and prolonging precipitation
chances through and beyond the end of the short term, along with
the precipitation potential from the approaching and more
substantial upper trough. Tough to argue with consensus pops and
these were generally acceptable.

Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with frontal passage,
particularly Sunday afternoon and evening, but SREF thunder
probabilities are quite low during this period and near zero at
other times, so have left this out of the current forecast.

Similarly, consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout,
although they may be high on max temps Monday depending on
coverage of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday Night/...

Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

An active pattern is still expected across central Indiana as a
couple upper lows move through during the period. The first will
bring rain showers and cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs will only top off in the 50s with lows in the upper 30s. So,
there is potential for frost at night. Thursday, ridging will
strengthen over the area, resulting in dry conditions until
Thursday night. That`s when additional chances for rain showers
will enter the forecast area with another upper trough.
Temperatures will rebound a bit on Thursday, but will quickly turn
cold again by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/09Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

No changes necessary. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 1133 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period.

The center of high pressure will shift east into the mid Atlantic
region...but remain close enough to central Indiana to maintain dry
conditions through Saturday evening. Return flow on the back side of
the high will bring increasing high level moisture steadily into the
Ohio Valley with cirrus expanding in coverage slowly from the west
through the period.

Southerly winds will peak near 10kts on Saturday afternoon. Low
level wind shear will become an issue Saturday evening as winds
increase through the boundary layer and surface flow weakens and
backs slightly.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...Ryan/Nield



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