Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

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