Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 230620
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The Long term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions through the day
Tuesday, then an upper level trough and a surface frontal system
will bring chances for rain through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Clear skies will continue overnight as ridge of high pressure moves
east across our region. Overall current forecast with lows from the
mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest is on track.
Made a few minor tweaks to the grids...but no other updates are
needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Focus is on chances for rain late in the period. Models are close
enough that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will provide dry conditions
into Tuesday. Some models try to bring in rain late Tuesday
afternoon with an upper disturbance, but believe they are overdoing
low level moisture (as is typical) and thus instability. Short range
ensembles are also drier, so will keep Tuesday dry.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, moisture will start to improve with
better southerly flow. Additional upper disturbances will move out
from the upper trough in the western USA and provide forcing. There
is too much uncertainty on when exactly these will impact the area,
so kept PoPs broadbrushed.

Went chance PoPs most areas during that period, with highest PoPs on
Wednesday when better instability and moisture arrive.

For temperatures, went warmer than guidance for highs given how
temperatures have overperformed today and expected warm advection
later in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Main focus regarding the long term will continue to be on
thunderstorms and temperatures.

Nothing has changed much over the last few days as the models and
ensembles continue to be similar in lifting a southwestern upper
trough northeast before it gets deflected by a strong eastern ridge
northward to the western Great Lakes on Sunday.
Meanwhile...warm...moist and unstable flow off the Gulf of Mexico
will interact with numerous impulses ejecting northeast around the
base of the upper trough toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
This will be a fertile breeding ground for thunderstorm chances
throughout the Holiday weekend per good chance regional blend pops.

The southerly flow should allow temperatures to top out in the lower
80s each day...despite the convection...per the regional blend. Dew
points should also climb well into the 60s...making it feel rather
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/0300Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1238 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as high
pressure remains in place. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the southeast and then southwest through the
course of the TAF period. Sustained speeds will range between 5 to
10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD


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