Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261843
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
243 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
EASTERN INDIANA AHEAD OF INITIAL LINE...SO THINK THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE IN THOSE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ADEQUATE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR. APPEARS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND 262300Z...SO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SHOULD DIMINISH BE THEN.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATES THROUGH. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT 270400Z WHEN THIS LOBE PASSES BY. APPEARS THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THESE WAVES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING
THIS PERIOD BEFORE UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER THIS WEEK. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

APPEARS THE LOWEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON THURSDAY...SO WILL RESTRICT
THE POPS ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSED TO PROGGED
INSTABILITY AXIS.

WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOK TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE
GUIDANCE 3-5 DEGREES IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.

RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
TURN INTO LIKELY CHANCES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES. THEN A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FIVE STATE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...PROLONGING THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY WAS PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS
ALLOW TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. FURTHER
TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMP WARM. SHORT
WAVE SHOULD PASS BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. THUS HAVE A
WINDS OF VCTS WITH TEMPS GROUPS FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO END TOWARD 00Z AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE EXPECTED RAIN AND
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE PROVIDES AN GOOD SET UP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MMB/PUMA
AVIATION...JP

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