Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301509
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1109 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THIS MORNING. CENTRAL INDIANA IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A LOVELY
SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO
BE REACHED. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE
BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD BE NEAR
EXPECTED NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE
SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
BUT DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS
AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND 850 TEMPS AND WERE BUMPED UP A BIT
EACH PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS WERE FAR TOO WARM AND WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER SUNDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WED AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
EAST OUR WAY BY THEN. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTER THAT. SUPER BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES A
BIT TOO COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. VFR CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 301200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AIRMASS. EXPECT
ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT WEST TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH



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