Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 082026
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A DIFFUSE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING. IN THE WAKE THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

DIFFUSE FRONT HARD TO PICK OUT WITH RATHER UNIFORM WIND FIELD...BUT
IT PROBABLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD BAND CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE. SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWING SOME BUILD UPS IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE AS WELL. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET OR AS THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA. REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS MORE STABLE
AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK OK BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND UPSTREAM LOWS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPPER HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

BY FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OFF TO
THE WEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLES THAT SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
MAY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO INCLUDE A POP ON FRIDAY...SO WILL
KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE A BIT IN THOSE PERIODS. MOS LOWS LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

PATTERN WILL RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED ONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A
BOUNDARY WILL MEAN RENEWED AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND CLIMO HIGHS IN THE 80S
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 082100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL SOME POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY WED
MORNING.

WINDS A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON POST FROPA MAINLY OUT OF THE
WEST AROUND 20 KT. THESE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING IN
TYPICAL FASHION. CLEARING SKIES...WEAKENING WINDS AND PRIOR RAIN
MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES TONIGHT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED THIS ALL BUT IND WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY A BIT
HIGHER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

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