Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281115
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
612 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

A deep surface and upper low over the Dakotas will move east
across the upper midwest Tuesday and across the great lakes
Wednesday.  An upper trough extending south across the plains
will rotate northeast across Indiana this afternoon and early
tonight bringing a period of heavy rain along with a few
thunderstorms.

Another disturbance will move across the Ohio valley Wednesday
bringing another chance for showers.   Finally a third disturbance
will bring a chance of mixed precipitation late Saturday night
changing to a chance of rain Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 338 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

Surface analysis showed a 976 MB surface low centered over eastern
South Dakota and a surface trough extending south across the plains.
Radar indicated a band of light rain across eastern Illinois and
extreme western Indiana occurring in an area of strong warm
advection.

This rain will spread east across central Indiana early this morning.
Most of this will be light during the morning hour.  However heavier
rain will spread in this afternoon as models move a negative tilted
surface and upper trough northeast across Indiana late today and
tonight.
Will go with likely chances of rain this morning and near 100 percent
POPS late today and early tonight. Models indicate cape up to 500
J/KG over western sections late tonight and will mention a chance of
thunder all but far northeast.

Rain amounts in excess of an inch and a half possible next 24 hours.
However 12 hour flash flood guidance 2.5 to 3.5 inches...so even
though we should see significant rises on creeks and streams from
heavy rain...it should not be enough to cause widespread flooding.
Therefor will not issue any flood headlines at this time.

Once the trough and upper disturbance moves through this evening...
models push a dry slot into our region late tonight.  Will carry
low chance POPS some areas shortly after midnight and then dry
most areas by Tuesday morning.

Models indicate a strong pressure gradient across our region. This
will translate to wind speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph.
Northeast sections may even see higher gusts late today and tonight.

Stayed just below a CONSALL MOS blend on temperatures for highs today
and near a MOS Blend for lows tonight.  Went with highs from around
50 north to lower to middle 50s south today and lows tonight in the
middle to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Wednesday Night/
Issued at 338 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

Strong low pressure will move across the upper midwest Tuesday
and into the northern great lakes Wednesday.  A dry slot will be
across Indiana Tuesday resulting in brisk winds...but dry and
mild weather.

Models bring another trough of low pressure northeast across
our region by Tuesday and some models are a little more aggressive
in bringing a chance of showers our way late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  Will mention a chance of showers over all but far
northwest sections late Tuesday night and low chance POPS mainly
east half Wednesday.

Cooler air will finally move in behind this second trough.  Stayed
close to Super blend temperatures most periods.  Highs will be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and lower to middle 50s
Wednesday.    Lows will be in the 40s Tuesday night and lower to
middle 30s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Thursday Through Sunday/
Issued at 338 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016


Ensembles suggest a rather quiet weather pattern across the area
during this period, with a slightly confluent, split upper flow.
Ensembles indicate a weak upper trough in the northern stream may
push over the Great Lakes next weekend, although at this time it
appears the deeper moisture will be tied up farther south. Will go
with some small chance PoPs for light mixed precipitation Saturday
night into Sunday.
Otherwise, the rest of the extended will keep dry.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 281200z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 612 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

VFR Ceilings will deteriorate to IFR or low MVFR by midday and then
improve to VFR again late tonight.

Area of light rain showers were spreading east across central
Indiana.
But at the moment...ceilings were still at or above 5 thousand feet.
These will gradually lower during the morning and will become MVFR or
IFR by early afternoon.  An upper disturbance and surface trough over
the plains will move towards Indiana this afternoon.  Models indicate
rain will increase as this system arrives.  Could be widely scattered
thunderstorms late today and early tonight.  Chances are too low to
mention at KIND...but will carry VCTS at KHUF...KBMG and KLAF where
chances are better.  Rain and all chances of thunderstorms will
end quickly by midnight as dry slot pushes in.  Ceilings will improve
back to VFR late tonight.

Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 knots this morning
increasing to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon and becoming southwest
late tonight.   Winds will decrease to 10 knots by end of forecast
period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH



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