000
FXUS63 KIND 151711
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
111 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OUT...MEANDERING AROUND FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG IT CREATING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OFF
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH SUSTAINED...AND GUSTING TO 30 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF PRECIP
CHANCES. MODELS ARE BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS SOUTH VERY SLOWLY DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND IT COULD CONCEIVABLY NOT REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST IMPEDING
IT/S PROGRESSION. WITH THE HIGH STILL EXERTING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA AND THE FRONT NOT BEING VERY STRONG...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. STUCK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF
THE MAV AND ONLY BROUGHT THEM IN AT THE END OF THE DAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES FACE AN INTERESTING CONUNDRUM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT THE DAY IS STARTING OUT 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER. AGAIN EXPECTING WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
20-30 MPH. COULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
SLOW DOWN WARMING AS WELL. ALSO OF NOTE IS UPSTREAM SITES LIKE ST
LOUIS THAT SAW HIGHS OVER 90 YESTERDAY. ULTIMATELY TRIED TO BALANCE
ALL THE ABOVE FACTORS AND CAME UP WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO YIELD MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE FRONT WORKING IT/S WAY SOUTH TONIGHT AND
STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR I 70. UPPER FORCING IS GENERALLY LACKING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER JET ELSEWHERE AND LACK OF ANY LOW
LEVEL JET HERE EITHER. MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF IS QUESTIONABLE
AND LIKELY OVERDONE IN THE MODELS BUT DOES LOOK A LITTLE BETTER THIS
SET OF RUNS THAN PREVIOUS. GFS IS WETTER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
THIS APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WITH A GENERAL LACK OF ANY STRONGER FORCING
MECHANISMS. ALSO COMPARISON WITH ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS THIS OPERATIONAL
RUN IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE OF OPTIONS WITH A PRETTY HIGH
STANDARD DEVIATION. THUS WILL AIM FOR MORE OF MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WHICH WAS CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS. THIS RESULTED IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. DID INCLUDE A STRIP OF
LIKELIES AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOWING QPF
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. CONSIDERED LOWERING POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ABSENCE OF EXTRA LIFT FROM DAYTIME HEATING
BUT DID SEE HINTS OF POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT MCS SO LEFT HIGH
CHANCE NUMBERS GOING. FRIDAY AGAIN HAS HIGH CHANCE NUMBERS WITH
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION...BUT NOT ALL MODELS
AGREE AND THUS LEFT A LOW CHANCE POP GOING THEN. THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLED
SOMEWHERE AROUND THUNDER POTENTIAL IS THERE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY THOUGHT A CONSENSUS APPROACH HANDLED
THINGS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.  A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE STALLED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
SUNDAY.  MODELS THIS RUN HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  THE LATEST RUN DEVELOP THIS INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW BY MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE IT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY.  WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THEM TO LIKELY BY
DAY 7 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR REGION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY FROM ALL BLEND NUMBERS GIVEN THE WARM
AIRMASS AND THAT A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG AND GUSTY WIND 25012G22KT WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ENDING AROUND 152300Z.

NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH BUT AS
UPPER WIND SUPPORT AIDING THEM MOVES TO EAST COAST THE LINE SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. EXPECT REMNANTS OF
THIS BAND WILL FLIRT WITH KLAF AT OUTSET OF TAFS BUT DIE BEFORE
IMPACTING KIND OR KHUF.

SECOND AREA OF WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMING IN FROM MINNESOTA LATE
TODAY SHOULD INTERACT WITH SURFACE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY CONVERGING
WINDS. THIS SHOULD REKINDLE NEW THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR KLAF-KMIE LINE AFT 152200Z AND CONTINUE INTO EVENING HOURS
160500Z. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA TO CONTINUE
BEYOND 160600Z BUT LIMITED FORCING AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE THIS COULD HAPPEN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/TDUD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

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