Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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533
FXUS63 KIND 260205
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1005 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A front sinking south of the area will confine thunderstorm
chances to the southern portion of central Indiana through most of
the next 48 hours. Upper level disturbances moving into the area
later in the week will allow thunderstorm chances to again
overspread most of the area. Temperatures throughout the 7 day
forecast will remain near normal for the time of year, much cooler
than in recent days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 939 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A combination of cloud cover and little or no wind has kept
dewpoints and surface temperatures from falling much so have
adjusted hourly trend for a more slow fall. Satellite trends show
clouds to begin thinning some after midnight so still expecting
min temps close to previous forecast...especially in the south
where clouds will be thicker from remnant convection earlier this
evening.

Kept low chance pops across the south as residual surface energy
within diffuse surface trough are forecast by all models to
redevelop precipitation there before daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Will have to maintain at least a slight chance across the south
Tuesday through Wednesday, although the area will likely remain
dry most of the time. Chances will again overspread the entire
area Wednesday night into Thursday as upper level troughing works
its way into the area. Significant organized convection does not
appear particularly likely at this time.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout with minor
tweaks. Temperatures will be cooler than in recent days but still
near seasonal normals. This will still represent a refreshing
break for the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Although there are differences in the operational models regarding
various short waves, the 12z GFS and ECMWF and ensembles all
continue to suggest a mean Mississippi Valley trough. Waves will
move through the trough and downstream over the Ohio Valley and
result in an oscillating frontal zone that will be nearby. This
scenario would favor the threat of thunderstorms through the weekend
and into early next week per model QPF fields and the regional
blend. The best chances looks to be Thursday night into Friday,
especially if the stronger ECMWF frontal system verifies.

The thermal pattern would support normal to slightly below normal
temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid
and upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 260300Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Forecast in good shape with only minor adjustments needed to winds
and ceilings based on current conditions.

00Z discussion follows.

MVFR conditions possible at times after midnight in fog otherwise
predominantly VFR expected.

Bit of a more muddled forecast for tonight and Tuesday than
previously thought as diffuse frontal boundary becomes quasi-
stationary near the Ohio River for much of the period. With only
weak high pressure located to the northwest...dry air and deeper
subsidence having all sorts of difficulty advecting south into
central Indiana. Model soundings and RH progs showing boundary
layer moisture lingering over much of the region along and south
of I-70 overnight...with the possibility of stratocu to go along
with patchy fog. Only terminal where there is reasonable
confidence at minimal ceilings is KLAF but even here there are
likely to be visibility restrictions during the predawn through
daybreak period.

With the front hanging up near the Ohio River...hi-res guidance
hinting at a few showers trying to lift back north into the I-70
corridor as early as the predawn hours and continuing into Tuesday
as weak disturbances ride the boundary. Very low confidence in any
precip impacting the terminals at this point...but this is
something to monitor going forward. More low level moisture
present on Tuesday likely to manifest as VFR cu through the day. A
predominant light N/NE flow overnight will veer to E/NE on Tuesday
before becoming variable in direction.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RYAN



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