Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 202016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
316 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 234 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Warm weather will continue through the work week. Chances for rain
arrive late tonight and exit for brief period late Tuesday night
before returning late Wednesday night. A strong low pressure
system will move in to end the week, bringing with it
thunderstorms and chances for severe weather along with strong
winds for Friday. This system will also bring the end of the mild
conditions and usher near normal temperatures back in and chances
for snow or a rain snow mix Sunday night.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 234 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

An upper wave will approach late tonight along with a weak surface
front. Isentropic lift ahead of the front should produce some
cloud cover, resulting in increasing clouds during the night.
Latest model runs have pushed back the arrival of any
precipitation until late (after 9z) in the west, and MOS pops have
dropped sharply from 0z numbers. Followed this trend resulting in
mid chance pops in the northwest and only slight chance across
most of the area. Low temperatures should be warm (in the low to
mid 50s) with all the cloud cover and southerly flow.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 234 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

A weak surface front will move through the area on Tuesday and
bring rain chances across the area. Not ample deep moisture so
only looking at light showers and cloudy skies. The showers will
move out by 6z Wednesday and high pressure moves in. Wednesday
should see mostly sunny skies across the area to start the day,
with increasing clouds across the south and east as another wave
passes by to the south. With southwesterly winds and more sunshine
increased temperatures across the north and west 2 degrees from
the initialization. Wednesday night another wave will approach
that will bring in chances for rain that increase during the day
on Thursday. For Thursday made no adjustments to initialization
temperatures with expectation of clouds and precip chances. Even
so, highs in the mid 60s to around 70 still expected.


.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Monday/
Issued at 156 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Although models have some differences handling a late week and early
weekend system, all suggest it will be an active one with the
potential for strong convection Friday afternoon and evening, along
and ahead of the associated cold front. This will also bring a
change in the well above normal temperatures with seasonable weather
in the wake of the front starting Saturday.

Model instability progs all support thunder chances Thursday night
as a near-stationary front returns north as a warm front. Superblend
has the highest pops over our northern counties Thursday night and
Friday, closer to this front, which seems reasonable. Model CAPEs of
400 to 700 j/kg Friday afternoon and evening along with 50 knot low
level jet and strong upper support warrant SPC day5 outlooked area.

By Saturday, temperatures will be more late February-like with highs
in the 40s per blend looking good based on low level thermal progs
and cloud cover. Could see a few wraparound showers, possibly mixed
with snow north, as the system exits to the northeast. Saturday
night and Sunday look dry. The next chance of precipitation looks to
be Sunday night and Monday as a warm front approaches from the
south. Superblend suggests a trend of rain and snow becoming all
snow and then switching back to rain Monday morning. Confidence on
precipitation type, coverage and amounts are low this far out. But,
warm ground should prevent any significant snow accumulation, and
warming Monday afternoon would melt any that did occur.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the early overnight with
generally light SE winds. Ceilings will begin to lower after 09Z
as mid level moisture increases ahead of a shortwave trough. MVFR
conditions will set in around 12-15Z with chances for showers
through the day.




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