Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260710
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
310 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A few low pressure systems will move through central Indiana during
the next week, bringing frequent chances for showers and some
thunderstorms to the area. Temperatures will remain near to above
average into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Rain was falling across much of central Indiana early this morning,
thanks to upper and surface lows back near the Mississippi River.

The lows will move into lower Michigan by this evening. The current
widespread rain should shift east some by morning, but latest hi-res
models indicate that the northeastern 2/3 of the area should still
be seeing rain. Will go categorical PoPs northeast half tapering to
chance PoPs southwest at the start of the today period.

This first band will continue to shift off to the east during the
morning, but the hi-res models as well as ensembles show another
round of rain developing midday as a surface front moves through and
an upper jet moves in. This will bring more likely PoPs to the area.
Will try to time a break between the areas of rain where possible.

PoPs will then diminish west to east during mid afternoon to early
evening as the system begins to exit the area.

There will be some instability so will continue with a thunder
mention.

Went a little above the model blend for high temperatures most areas
based on latest performance.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday night/
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Will include some low PoPs this evening east to account for any
lingering rain from the existing system. The area should remain in
between systems overnight, so continued a dry forecast then.

An upper trough and another surface low will move in for Monday and
Monday night. Again with this system moisture and forcing look good.
Will go likely or higher PoPs most areas by Monday afternoon and
across all areas Monday evening.

Based on the expected path of the surface low, it looks like
sufficient shear and instability will work into the southern half or
so of the forecast area for the potential for a few severe storms
Monday afternoon and evening. Thus the Storm Prediction Center has
placed parts of the area in a Marginal and Slight Risk for this
period.

Kept some low PoPs Tuesday as the system exits, then dry weather
should return.

The model blend temperatures look ok through the period given the
expected path of the system. Will have to keep an eye out on Tuesday
though as some models indicate colder air than the blend suggests
working into the northwest forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 229 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

ECMWF continues to suggest strong ridging across the area on
Wednesday as large but poorly defined areas of surface high
pressure move across the Great Lakes...Ohio Valley and the
southeastern states. This will lead to dry weather on Wednesday.
Meanwhile...strong low pressure will be developing across the
southern plains. ECMWF Moves this system toward Indiana on
Thursday afternoon through Friday. With favorable dynamics in
place aloft including a strong and sharp upper trough...have
included high likely pops at that time.

ECMWF then suggests strong ridging building across the area on
Friday night and Saturday along with strong Subsidence and the
arrival of another high pressure system. Thus dry weather is
expected then.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 260600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Off and on showers expected at the sites into the morning, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR within the next couple of hours and then
bouncing around between VFR and MVFR through the day. Should see
wind gusts pick up again Sunday afternoon with gusts around 18-24
kts out of the southwest. Thunder cannot be ruled out during the
period but chances are low enough to leave out at this time.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...CP/JP



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