Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 040452
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1152 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...AREA OF FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. WEATHER DEPICTION AND
RADAR INDICATES NO FLURRIES UPSTREAM FROM INDY...SO WILL END THESE IN THE WEST
AROUND NOW AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THE WINDS TONIGHT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  THERE
IS STILL A PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT...BUT THIS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT.  LOWS STILL
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHEAST.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 7-12 KTS AND GUSTS FALL OFF...IF NOT BY 6Z
THEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN FINALLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
EVENING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP


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