Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280314
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1114 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS READINGS PUSH TOWARD AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOWER CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED...BUT
SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL THOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR
WILL COVER IT TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR LATER TONIGHT...ONCE THE
DIURNALLY CHARGED CU DECK DISSIPATES AROUND SUNSET. USED A MOS
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED THIS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A
LITTLE EXTRA RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE
MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUD AS A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY HANDLE THE WEAK SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. GENERALLY STUCK
WITH LOW 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MODELS LOOK DRY OR WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY HIGHER OF POP
MENTION. WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO WARRANTS AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTIONED DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO RISE SLIGHTLY...TO AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PULLING OUT OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BE OVER
BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE EAST FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE
TO ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE. NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND IT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TAFS. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT
LAF AND BMG.

SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CI CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PREVENTING MAX COOLING AND FOG
FORMATION. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
FALLING TO LESS THAN 5F AFT HUF AND BMG. THUS HAVE JUST TRENDED
TOWARD TEMPO GROUPS AT THE BMG AND LAF FOR NOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ALONG WITH SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
ADVECT EASTWARD. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z
SAT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP



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