Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THEN ASIDE FROM SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS RETURNING TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

0845Z UPDATE...BASED ON TRENDS UPSTREAM...UPDATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE/SCATTERED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS PROJECT THIS WEAK COLD
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12-18Z TODAY AND
SINK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. EITHER
MAINTAINED OR INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS EARLY
TODAY...THEN GOING MOSTLY DRY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
MOVING IN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK EARLY TODAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE DRY...AND
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

ON THURSDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. SOME
WEAK LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FROM DRY TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE AREA FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BOOKEND THIS PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE.

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A LARGE...DEEP TROUGH PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING AND MOISTURE
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT AND MOST MOISTURE LOOKS TO PASS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRIOR TO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING ALOFT AMID THE DEEP TROUGH...A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR EVEN A FLURRY MAY BE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR -4C. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE A FLAKE OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

STRONG RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AIR MAS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES...SLOWLY CREEPING BACK TOWARD NORMALS AS THE DOME OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS THE RIDGE
PASSES TO OUR EAST. A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MOISTURE
ARRIVING. WITH FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE...SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BECOMING TOGETHER FOR PRECIP AND HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCES THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. SATELLITE SHOWS A SHARP CUT-OFF OF CLOUDS...SWEEPING ACROSS
INDIANA. CLEAR SKIES OVER ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME CONCERN ABOUT SC DECKS OVER WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THUS HAVE LEFT
THINGS VFR OVERNIGHT FOR NOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S...WHICH SHOULD RESULT SOME SCT VFR
CU ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

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