Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 200231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SERVE
TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVERALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT
MAY DISSIPATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WAVE ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF THE INDY METRO.
TEMPS GENERALLY REMAINED IN THE 70S AT 0130Z.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE VICINITY OF MID LEVEL VORT. STORMS
HAVE PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC AND ACTUALLY HAS INCREASED TO SOME
DEGREE WITH NIGHTFALL WITHIN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL OVER
THE REGION. WITH INSTABILITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND LAPS SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE ONSET OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION...EXPECT STORMS TO
REMAIN SUBSEVERE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS STORMS SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH THE UPPER
WAVE. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS IN OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT NOW
WHERE STORMS ARE FOCUSED WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH.

STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06-07Z WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. SETUP LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG...AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW OVERNIGHTS.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A
HEAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES.

FRONTAL ZONE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS COMBINED WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SPARK OFF SOME CONVECTION BY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN GETS STRONGER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION ARE PROBABLE DURING THOSE
TIMES. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW DUE TO
QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND THE LOCATION/TIMING OF CONVECTION...BUT
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT INTO THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...DEEP SHEAR DIMINISHES WITH TIME...HOWEVER THE LOCAL
AREA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID LEVEL CAP. AS A
RESULT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
WITH ANY POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
1.50-2.00 INCHES SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ONLY CERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
CONTINUATION OF SOME VERY WARM SUMMER WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT
DURING THIS PERIOD AND NOW HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FLATTENING OF
THE RIDGE UNTIL TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THE AREA AND
RETURNS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. PRIOR TO
TUESDAY...MODELS AND ALLBLEND CONTINUE TO INDICATE POPS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR NOW DURING THAT TIME AS A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY PASS OVER KIND. THEY
ARE JUST STARTING TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KIND AND KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT KHUF OR KBMG ANY MORE THIS
EVENING.

HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION AT
ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT...MVFR AT KIND...AND IFR OR WORSE AT
REMAINING SITES. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...GUSTING HIGHER IN STORMS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.