Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 040635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

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