Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 260628

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
228 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Summer has arrived and will be in full force across central
Indiana over the seven day forecast period. Highs in the 80s, lows
in the 60s, and ever present shower and thunderstorm chances
characterize the entire forecast period as a warm and humid
airmass remains in place with multiple subtle, weak, and difficult
to time upper level disturbances providing the focus for the
thunderstorm threat.


.NEAR TERM /overnight/...

Issued at 902 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Surface analysis this evening shows high pressure in place over
the Carolinas and poorly organized low pressure over Kansas.
Convection north and south of Indiana continued to wane as forcing
was limited. Satellite continues to show main high cloud streaming
across the state amid broad warm air advection.

Despite convection development over Kansas...confidence in any
tsra development overnight is low. Rapid refresh fails to develop
any precip across the area overnight. With little in the way of
forcing mechanisms...will trend toward lowering pops during the
overnight hours. Given the warm air advection and little change
in air mass will trend lows at or above persistence. Ongoing
forecast does that pretty well.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Multiple weak and poorly resolved waves will move through the area
over the next few days, and in the absence of more significant
synoptic support, expect that thunderstorm threat will be highly
diurnal in nature and will reflect this to the degree reasonable
in grids. Cannot justify more than chance pops in any one period
as a result of the significant uncertainty and low forecast

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout. Bumped up
maxes a bit per low level thicknesses and left mins alone. Little
change in airmass over the next few days will result in only minor
day to day variability in temperatures.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through next Wednesday/...

Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Ensembles in fairly good agreement during this period. An upper
trough is expected to eject into the western Great Lakes during
the day Sunday. Will keep chance PoPs going on Sunday to cover
this feature.

Looking like there may be a relative lull in the convective threat
from about Sunday night into Tuesday as heights build a bit in
the wake of the weekend trough. Ensembles are trending drier
during this period, but there are still quite a few members that
suggests widely scattered diurnal type convection is possible.
Will keep some small chance PoPs mainly during the daytime periods
on Monday and Tuesday for now, but could be taken out at a later
time if trends continue.

Ensembles suggest another upper disturbance may lift northeast
towards the western Great Lakes towards the middle of next week.
Will go with chance PoPs for next Wednesday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 260600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1233 AM EDT THU May 26 2016

VFR conditions to start at the sites. Could see some MVFR
visbilities develop around/after 9z with dew points currently in the
60s and temperatures still dropping. Also guidance is showing
development of MVFR ceilings or worse around the same time. Upstream
obs do show some MVFR decks developing and spreading toward the
sites, so will include a ceiling drop as well. Time heights and
forecast soundings indicate ceilings and vsbys should improve during
the morning, around 14z or so. Could see thunderstorm development
Thursday late afternoon/early evening but confidence is low enough
to leave out, with the exception of a broken deck around 4 kft.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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