Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261416
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
915 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Another warm-up will commence across Central Indiana today with
highs climbing back into the 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday. It will
be a rather wet pattern though with periodic chances for rain
showers and even some thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday.
After that, cooler air will filter in behind a low pressure
system, much like yesteday`s scenario. Temperatures will drop back
into the 30s and 40s for the end of the week with some chances for
light snow showers on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Further out,
high pressure will bring dry conditions to the region late in the
extended period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

The main focus of the near term period will be precipitation
chances this evening and tonight ahead of a weak upper wave.

Temperatures will already start to rebound today with breezy
southwest winds up to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. This will help
push high temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Mostly sunny
skies should prevail early, but clouds will gradually increase
during the afternoon and especially this evening ahead of a weak
wave approaching from Missouri.

As forcing intensifies with the aforementioned wave, moisture will
start spreading into the southern counties by this evening,
eventually encompassing central and northern sections overnight.
Partial thicknesses generally support a rain event, but some snow
and ice pellets cannot be ruled out over the central and northern
counties late in the night as temperatures start dropping into the
mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Rain showers will linger across all but the northwestern portions
of central Indiana on Monday morning, tapering off further across
the western counties as well by Monday afternoon. However, rain
chances will quickly re-develop by Monday evening across the
entire forecast area as a warm front enters the area. Will
continue to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast until
Tuesday afternoon when the low level jet increases across the warm
sector. Further strengthening of the low level jet along the Ohio
River on Tuesday night will support the definite pops that latest
Superblend initialization has produced as well as an increased
threat for severe weather. Currently, SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook
has most of Central Indiana under a slight risk for severe
weather.

Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 60s and possibly
lower 70s across southern counties by Tuesday afternoon behind
warm front. For now, will stick close to guidance, but
temperatures may have to be increased further for Tuesday
afternoon with strong southerly flow. Meanwhile, overnight lows
will be in the 40s on Monday night and 50s on Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 152 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Models are in good agreement with the main impact time period of the
long term. This will be Wednesday as a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana and interact with deep Gulf
moisture. Good confidence, the result will be widespread showers.
Model instability progs show enough instability to include thunder.
Will keep small chances of showers in Wednesday evening as an upper
through follows the cold front. Timing could change slightly
depending on how many surface waves develop along the front as have
been hinted at the last few runs. As was the case last week, the
cold front will bring a return to seasonable weather but not before
temperatures reach the 50s northwest and 60s southeast on Wednesday.

After a brief lull, an upper system and back door cold front will
generate another chance of precipitation for areas mainly near and
north of Interstate 74 Thursday night. Partial thicknesses and model
soundings suggest rain showers mixing with or changing to snow
shortly after onset.

After that, high pressure will bring dry weather to the area Good
confidence temperatures will teeter totter back to above normal
per Superblend by Saturday as the high moves off to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/15Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 915 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Updated current conditions only. Previous discussion follows...

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the TAF period
with high pressure briefly over the region. However, IND could
experience some MVFR conditions late in the TAF period as ceilings
deteriorate. Winds will generally be south/southwesterly at 5 to
10 kts with some gusts around 18-20 kts this afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD/CP


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