Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 042030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AROUND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BY THURSDAY EVENING
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
IN AND MEANDER AROUND...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD
AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST CLOSER TO THE UPPER SYSTEM.

ENDED UP WITH CHANCE POPS EAST 2/3 WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST
THIRD TONIGHT. WENT HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH LINGERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF TRY AND GENERATE SOME QPF FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT...BUT FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH
TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...SO KEPT THE MORNING
DRY. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE TO GO A BIT FASTER...SO MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO ADD POPS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE EXTENDED AS IT
OSCILLATES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

INITIAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY ESTABLISH ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL PROMPT THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL A
SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND KICKS THE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RESUMPTION OF THE WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODIC
CONVECTIVE THREATS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
A COOLER DAY WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 042100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE PREDAWN THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING
KBMG. SUN PEAKING THROUGH THE STRATOCU BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
PREVAILING CEILINGS RISING INTO VFR CATEGORY. CEILINGS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN AT 3-5KFT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD ADVECTION SETTING IN.
EXPECT SUSTAINEDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 30KTS. COULD
SEE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A VORT
LOBE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCSH MENTION AT KHUF AND KBMG
WHERE CONFIDENCE A BIT HIGHER AT A POTENTIAL IMPACT.

ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND MAY EVEN SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EVENING WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES.
LOWER CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY TO
SEE A PERIOD WITH IFR CEILINGS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW WILL ENABLE LOWER CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK



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