Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 310936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
436 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES AWAY ON MONDAY...FRIGID TEMPS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
AFTER A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS AROUND MID-WEEK...THE BITTER COLD
TEMPS WILL RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

CURRENT IR SAT SHOWS SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MAIN TREND FOR THIS MORNING AND TODAY WILL BE THE
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. TRENDED
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS FOR TODAY/S HIGHS...FEEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE UNDERDONE SLIGHTLY BY MOST MODELS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND.

TIMING...LATEST MODEL RUNS OF NAM/GFS/EURO HAVE ALL TAKEN A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE BUT REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SYSTEM...THE EURO BEING JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE NAM AND GFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD START ENTERING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND SUN 00Z...INCREASING SLIGHTLY AROUND SUN
03Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT/BEST DYNAMICS REALLY STRENGTHEN AROUND SUN
06Z AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MON 00Z.

PRECIP TYPE...THERE HAVE BEEN MODIFICATIONS TO PRECIP TYPE AND
AMOUNTS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE UNDERDONE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS GOING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL HAVE TIME TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL TIER OF
COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT THINK THE SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES OF
TODAY AND TOMORROW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW ACROSS
LAFAYETTE AND INDIANAPOLIS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
A CHANGE TO SNOW AT TERRE HAUTE UNTIL AFTER SUN 04Z...AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEVER CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN /EXCEPT BRIEFLY
LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES/. AS A RESULT...REMOVED
VIGO...CLAY...AND OWEN COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

AMOUNTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES...SO INSERTED CARROLL AND TIPTON COUNTIES
INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SLIGHT
NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK...THESE COUNTIES COULD SEE UP
TO 9 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND ANOTHER TIER OF
COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE WARNING WITH
NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TIER OF COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE RIGHT ALONG SHARP
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT. ONCE AGAIN...THE I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS TO BE
THE BEST CUT-OFF POINT...WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE RECEIVING AROUND 3
TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION...AND THE NORTHERN SIDE
RECEIVING 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. AGAIN...THESE AMOUNTS COULD STILL
CHANGE SINCE MOST UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THIS PARTICULAT AREA.

SYSTEM WILL WIND DOWN BETWEEN MON 00-06Z WITH MOST OF PRECIP OUT
OF THE AREA BEFORE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THAT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS SCATTER A BIT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL NOT BE MUCH BETTER ON MONDAY EITHER...WITH
READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

ALL MODELS CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SIGNIFICANT DAY
TO DAY CHANGES WILL OCCUR AS A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS
OUR REGION.

MODELS DEVELOP A SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE
30S TUESDAY AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING.  THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH WILL REMAINS DRY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

GFS AND GEMNH MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE THE EURO IS DRY.  MEANWHILE ALL MODELS
INDICATE DRY WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER IT MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM NORTH WITH SNOW COVER. CUT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LATE WEDNESDAY ON...AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES BACK
INTO OUR REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 311800Z.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 200-220 DEGREES AT
8-12 KTS BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
INZ028>030-035>049-054>057.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR INZ021-031.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS/JH

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