Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280718
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Another dry day ahead with warmer temperatures but still
relatively low humidity. By Thursday though moisture increases and
will see chances for thunderstorms overspread the area and stick
around until midday Saturday. Some storms Thursday and Friday
could be strong to severe. Rain will move out on Saturday but then
chances will return for Monday and onward with more low pressure
systems moving through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

High pressure across central Indiana will allow for sunny skies to
start the day with some scattered diurnal cu this afternoon.
Temperatures should warm into the lower 80s with ample sun and
some warm advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Best forcing has trended further north for tonight through Thursday
with this set of model runs. Think the best threat for severe
will be north of the forecast area for that timeframe. Low level
jet and upper level jet look like potential for severe is now
better for Friday afternoon/evening ahead of the cold frontal
passage, with both jets pointing toward the area in some manner
during that time, although the GFS has better potential coupling
of the jets than the NAM at this time. Despite this appearance,
instability is better Thursday in the GFS, and bulk shear is as
well. Instability looks impressive both days in the NAM but bulk
shear is better Friday afternoon in the NAM. Looking at the upper
wave and surface fronts, think Friday/Friday night is the better
bet and thus will keep the higher PoPs going then. Still looks
like chances for thunderstorms in the northwest and then north
late Wednesday night into Thursday, though, but dry in the south.

PoPs will increase through the day on Friday as a cold front approaches.
The cold front should move through Friday night, and will see
likely rain and thunderstorms across the area then.

Temperatures Thursday should reach into the middle to upper 80s
under southwest flow and mostly sunny conditions. Friday will be a
bit cooler with more cloud cover expected, but still in the 80s.


&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Showers should end by midday Saturday as a weak cold front moves to
near the Ohio river.  This front will remain stalled across extreme
southern Indiana rest of the weekend and then drift a little to the
north by Monday as low pressure moves into the central plains.

Mostly dry weather will be the rule rest of the weekend...although
some models indicate low chance POPS over southeast Indiana Sunday
afternoon with a very weak upper disturbance.  But Confidence of
this is low.

It appears better chances of showers and a  few storms will return
after the weekend as low pressure over plains moves our way.  Models
indicate a very moist airmass later Monday and Tuesday with an
increasing southerly flow ahead of next system.

High temperatures will be near normal and lows near to slightly
above normal.  This will result in highs in the 80s and lows in the
middle to upper 60s.  Generally stayed close to a Superblend MEX
blend on temperatures most periods.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1223 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Winds will increase into the 10 to 15kt range most sites during the
morning hours after sunrise, with gusts over 20kt possible during
the afternoon. As winds diminish during Wednesday evening, some LLWS
may develop as winds remain strong aloft.

Some few to scattered cumulus will develop during the morning and
persist through the afternoon. Otherwise some high clouds at times
can be expected.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...50


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