Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
431 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER WAVE WAS
GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI.

MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET. MODELS
VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. ALSO...MOST
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

0825Z UPDATE...CHANGES WERE MADE EARLIER TO ADD LIFR FOG TO
OUTLYING SITES SUCH AS HUF AND BMG AND THIS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO IND FOR 5SM BR FROM 09-12Z ALSO BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG THAT APPEARS LIKELY AT THE OUTLYING SITES
NEAR DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY BMG AND HUF.

STORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET CONVECTION WISE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BMG RECEIVED RAIN
EARLIER THIS EVENING AND HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO MVFR. WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO IFR PERIOD NEAR DAYBREAK THERE...WITH ONLY MVFR ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT OWING
TO UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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