Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 151129
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
629 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

This period we will see a pattern change from the recent cold
troughing and frequent clipper systems to a milder ridging with
pieces of energy sweeping in from the southwest. Models are in
relatively good agreement with this shift. Below normal
temperatures of the past week will shift to above normal
starting Saturday and remaining so into next Friday.

The last of the clipper systems moves out of the Upper Great
Lakes today. One piece of upper energy in the southwest will eject
northeast to bring light rain to our area Sunday. A more
substantial trough will drop into the Plains Thursday and deepen
as it tracks into the Great Lakes Friday. All models lift this low
up to our northwest keeping us on the milder and showery side
late Thursday into Friday before a shift back to a colder pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 617 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Adjusted cloud amounts a slight bit higher. Still expect some
peeks at the sun but more cloud than sun. No adjustments on temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...

Issued at 243 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Tonight...will be dry with variable cloud cover as heights rise with
the upper trough lifting into New England and a surface
trough/warm front sets up to our northwest. With the periodic
cloud cover and light southwest wind...minimum temperatures will
be a category warmer...in the middle 20s.

Saturday and Saturday night...continued southwest flow and the
surface boundary shifting further north in the Great Lakes will
result in sunnier skies for all areas by Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures top out from 45 to 50...in line with blended
guidance. Saturday night lows will be at or above freezing as
southwest winds continue and high clouds overspread the area after
midnight from the approaching system ejecting this way from the
southern Rockies.

Sunday and Sunday night...the upper trough dampens some as it moves
into the upper ridge over our area. Still, the moisture it pulls
northward will bring overcast skies Sunday. Light rain will also
overspread the area during the morning and continue into the
afternoon. The cloud cover and rain will hold back max
temperatures Sunday in the lower to middle 40s but that will
still feel mild compared to recent days. Rain amounts will be
less than a quarter inch.

Continued southwest flow Sunday night and dewpoints above freezing
will translate to minimal temperature drops Sunday night with
lows in the mid to upper 30s. Some light rain or drizzle will be
possible as more moisture transports into our area from a deep
trough in the southwest US.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Models indicate a zonal upper flow will occur through the middle of
next week...then becoming more amplified late next week as an upper
trough moves into the central U.S. and deepens.  Temperatures will
be quite mild most of this period with a slight cool down towards
Wednesday.

The European and GFS indicate trace precipitation amounts early
Monday as one weak system exits our area.  The GFS indicates another
system may give us low rain chances Monday night as a weak cold
front moves through.  The rest of the long term will be mostly dry
as high pressure moves east across our region. The one exception
will be late Thursday where Superblend indicates slight chance POPS
ahead of the approaching trough.

Stayed close to a MOS Superblend mix on temperatures through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 151200z TAFS/...

Issued at 617 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

An hour period of MVFR decks around 2700 feet should occur
roughly 16Z-18Z today in vicinity of surface trough as winds
switch from WSW to WNW. Otherwise VFR decks to occur most of the
period. Also anticipate gustiness of wind as they swing to WNW
but gusts should lie down by 21z and winds drop below 10kts by
23z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Tucek
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...Tucek
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...TDUD



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