Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 060643
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
243 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER RAINY PERIOD SHOULD
BEGIN AS A FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS. LATE IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO TAKE CHARGE OF INDIANA WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH ALL MODELS POINTING TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHWEST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO MINIMUMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. GIVEN THE MAV HAS
CAPTURED THIS...AND DID VERY LAST NIGHT...IT WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE MONDAY IS GOING TO
BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THEY ALSO AGREE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL BE IN MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A FRONT WILL STALL.

WHERE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOESNT AGREE IS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV WETTER THAN THE MET.

QPF FROM THE EUROPEAN...GFS...NAM...AND SREF WERE COMPARED.
DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AND A CHANCE IT WILL NOT. ITS LOGICAL
TO USE THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE SUBSTANTIAL QPF TUESDAY. A CATEGORICAL RAIN FORECAST IS IN
ORDER.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS COULD CAUSE BIG
ERRORS. A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEST TO
CAPTURE SKILL FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ZONAL FLOW APPEARS TO BE ON PLACE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. GFS HINTS AT A WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE PASSING
ACROSS INDIANA ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW RIDES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH...DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF...BUT WARM AND
MOIST SUMMER DEW POINTS IN THE 60S LOOK TO REMAIN. THUS WILL NEED
TO KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INDICATED BY
ALL BLEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GFS ALSO HINTS AT RIDGING ALOFT. YET ALL
BLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON CHC POPS. WITH NO GULF MOISTURE OR
FORCING PRESENT...HAVE REMOVED CHC POPS WHERE POSSIBLE. TEMPS
APPEAR CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 06/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT IND. MVFR AND POTENTIALLY TEMPO IFR FOG
WILL OCCUR AT THE OUTLYING SITES THROUGH MID MORNING.

VISIBILITIES HAVE BEGUN TO DROP AT LAF/BMG...AND WILL TAKE THESE
SITES DOWN TO TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE HUF AT MVFR
ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE. COULD SEE
PATCHY HIGH END MVFR FOG AT IND BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND UNLIKELY TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

FOG WILL BURN OFF IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION MONDAY MORNING WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE MORNING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

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