Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291911
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
311 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SPOTTY SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE SURFACE IN MANY AREA AS
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 22Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE. TAKING THIS DRIER TREND INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AND GONE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A BLEND OF MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CLOUD
AND PRECIP CHANCES. LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...THOUGH LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY
ON SUNDAY AS LIFT AND INSTABILITY BOTH ARE LIMITED FROM 06Z-15Z
SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA AS
DRY...EXCEPT FOR THE NAM WHICH BRINGS A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO WILL
KEEP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DRY AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN RECENT WARMER TRENDS
SO TRENDED CLOSER TO THESE VALUES AS OPPOSED TO THE GENERALLY
COOLER NAM MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
TUESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FORECAST FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. MORE HUMID DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO THE LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
KEEPING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SITES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER LOOKING
UPSTREAM AND AT DEVELOPMENT FORECAST FROM HI RES MODELS IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE SITES. AT THIS
POINT THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT KLAF CLOSEST TO THE BEST
FORCING AND MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
EVENING BUT ELSEWHERE WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH WITH PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

NEAR DAYBREAK COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE OUTLYING
SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MMB/CP
AVIATION...CP



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