Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 182018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 227 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

High pressure is expected to move through the Ohio Valley tonight.
A frontal system is expected to move through the local area around
Thursday night. Another frontal system may affect the area over the
weekend and on into early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 227 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Low cloud cover has held across the area so far, however some
clearing has taken place recently over southwest Illinois and
eastern Missouri. This clearing may reach the far southwest zones
late this afternoon, but more likely it will be later tonight
before significant clearing takes place as a low level inversion

Low level thicknesses tonight suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight
look good for the most part, so little, if any, adjustments will
be made.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 227 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Model data suggest upper trough currently pushing out of the
southern Rockies will eject northeast across the local area
Thursday night. Will bring in PoPs starting Thursday afternoon,
and continue them through Friday morning to cover this feature. It
appears the highest PoPs will occur Thursday night, coinciding
with the best lift. Steeper mid level lapse rates, associated with
the negatively tilted nature of the upper trough, will result in
an elevated risk for thunderstorms mainly late Thursday afternoon
and night.

Next upper disturbance ejecting out of the western trough looks to
move into the southern Plains by Saturday. Will bring chance PoPs
back into the area by Saturday as this next trough approaches.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS
temperature guidance over the next couple of days. The guidance
highs on Saturday may be a little on the warm side given cloud
cover and precipitation potential. May nudge the highs down a
little in that period.


.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 1257 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

There is high confidence the weather will be unusually warm. There
is also high confidence there will be lots of rain, but little or no
chance for snow.

The models all predict Indiana is going to be affected by air from
the Gulf Coast. Besides being warm and humid, this air should have
storm systems embedded in it.

It is too early to be precise about rain timing. POPS for any one
period may need adjusting by 20 percent. Given uncertainty about
precipitation, there is some uncertainty about temperatures.
Possible errors are about 4 degrees. It is very likely readings
will be at least 10 degrees above average most of the time.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 182100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Ceilings 007-008 AGL continue in the vicinity of the KIND terminal,
although area of IFR ceilings in general is slowly shrinking.
Will extend the IFR ceilings out a few more hours on the update.
Also backed the surface winds some to come more in line with
current observations.

Previous discussion follows.

Widespread ceilings 005-008 AGL linger across the area under a
strong low level inversion. Should see ceilings gradually rise
above IFR to around 010-015 by mid afternoon as boundary layer
warms a bit. Patchy drizzle through early afternoon may produce
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions as well.

Short term model guidance suggests ceilings may scatter out at the
KHUF/KBMG/KLAF terminals after 190400Z or so, but with low level
inversion holding, this may be too quick.

Surface winds 240-260 degrees at 8-10 kts this afternoon will
gradually back around to 200-220 degrees at 5-7 kts after sunset.




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