Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271648
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
MODEL DATA SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
FORM JUST WEST OF THE ILLINOIS STATE LINE. AT THIS TIME...DON/T
THINK IT WILL BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME.

SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KIND/KHUF/KBMG. EXPECTED PROBABILITY/COVERAGE
PRECLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 HAS BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THESE CEILINGS MAY GET INTO
KLAF FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT TOWARDS MIDDAY. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

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