Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 260216

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1016 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Aviation section updated


Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

An upper level trough and weak cold front moving through the
region may spark a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday
into Monday evening. Otherwise, dry and cool weather for the time
of year can be expected through the early portion of the week.
Temperatures will return nearer to seasonal normals mid to late
week as upper level flow becomes more zonal, and active weather
will return with multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms as a frontal system moves into the region.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 919 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Current forecast in good shape. No updates planned at this time.
Previous discussion follows.

Quiet and cool weather can be expected overnight. Diurnal cumulus
behind a weak boundary will dissipate this evening and leave skies
mostly clear across much of the area. Temperatures will get down
to near overnight dewpoints, which should take lows down well into
the 50s across the area.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The main focus in the short term will be Monday afternoon and
evening as a compact upper level wave and another weak boundary
moves through the area. Forecast soundings depict weak instability
developing by the afternoon, and daytime heating should be able
spark a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. This
may continue into the evening hours before any lingering
precipitation tapers off late Monday night. The remainder of the
short term will be dry as a large ridge of surface high pressure
traverses the area.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout per low
level thermal progs. Only minor tweaks were required. Temperatures
will be well below normal through Tuesday night before warm
advection begins in earnest as the ridge passes.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

An active long term period is in store with a progressive upper
pattern across the area. A couple of low pressure systems will
move through the area, and with upper waves swinging through at
times as well will require chances for showers and thunderstorms
essentially throughout. Initially the chances will be higher
across the north and west where the frontal systems will approach
from, with dry to low pops across the south and east closer to the
departing high pressure. By Friday/Friday night higher confidence
that precip chances will overspread the entire forecast area. High
temperatures should be near normal for this time of year in the
low to middle 80s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 260300Z IND Taf update/...

VFR Conditions are expected to continue.

Diurnal CU has cleared...VFR conditions are expected to continue.
No significant changes to the ongoing TAF.

Previous Discussion Below

/Discussion for the 260000Z Tafs/...

Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected this TAf period.

Diurnal Cu across the are will quickly dissipate with sunset.
Large high pressure west of Indiana will keep cool and dry NW flow
in place across the TAF sites. Forecast soundings and time height
show a dry column. Thus unlimited CIGS are expected overnight.

Forecast soundings on Monday show attainable convective
temperatures...however the mid level cap that has been in place
the past few days is no longer present. Furthermore...forecast
soundings suggest CAPE of near 1000 J/KG available. Thus expect
some SCT diurnal showers or storms on Monday afternoon.
Confidence too low for a specific mention...but used VCSH to
address this for now.




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