Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220655

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
155 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 339 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Rain showers will linger over eastern portions of Central Indiana
this evening as a low pressure system traverses the Deep South.
However, dry conditions will return tonight and persist into
Thursday. That is when rain and thunderstorm chances will
increase with a rather potent system. In addition, latest models
continue to trend toward possible severe thunderstorms on Friday
in the warm airmass. Further out, the warm temperatures will
abruptly end on Saturday though as cooler air filters in on the
back side of the aforementioned system. Any wraparound rain
showers could even have some snow showers mixed in on Saturday
morning. After that, dry conditions will return from Saturday
evening through Sunday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight and Wednesday Morning/...
Issued at 952 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Light rain continued over southeast sections this evening
but latest radar loops and models indicate it was beginning
to end elsewhere.  It may linger to a few hours after midnight
across east and southeast sections.

Hit the fog a little harder all but far southeast sections
late tonight and Wednesday morning to better match up with
SREF fog Probs and new aviation forecast.

Only other change was to lower temperatures a degree
most areas as current temperatures are near forecasted lows.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Afternoon through Friday Night/...
Issued at 339 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be a rather potent
system progged for the end of the week and possible severe
potential on Friday.

Benign weather will prevail tomorrow into Thursday with zonal flow
aloft. However, focus quickly shifts to a low pressure system
entering the area on Thursday. Rain showers will initially start
on Thursday afternoon, but as forcing increases with associated
warm front on Thursday night, so will the possibility of
thunderstorms. SPC continues to keep the forecast area
highlighted for severe potential on Friday/Friday night as a cold
front enters an unstable environment of high temperatures in the
upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 50s.

The above normal temperatures will prevail for duration of short
term period with highs generally in the 60s and 70s and lows in
the 50s. Colder temperatures in the 30s will quickly follow the
cold front on Friday night though. Latest Superblend
initialization will be used for temperatures.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 155 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Mainly dry weather but colder weather will kick off the weekend
as ECMWF suggests high pressure will be building across the region
in the wake of a departed cold front. This will result in dry and
colder weather for the weekend. By Monday afternoon...the ECMWF
suggests the surface high will have drifted east of Indiana and
return flow will begin once again. A warm front looks to push
toward Indiana On Monday afternoon and Tuesday as another strong
low pressure system builds across the Central Plains. This will
once again bring chances for precipitation back to Central Indiana
for the first part of the next work week.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/0600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Flying conditions will lower to IFR overnight as areas of Stratus
and fog increase.  Then improve back to VFR Wednesday afternoon.

Low pressure over the southeast U.S. will continue to the east.
A few light showers over southeast sections will end later tonight.
Main issue will be areas of stratus and fog as radiational cooling
occurs.  The lowest conditions will occur near and shortly after
sunrise with improving conditions from mid and late morning on.

Winds will be light overnight and early Wednesday morning becoming
south to southwest up to 8 knots by midday Wednesday.




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