Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 302017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
417 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A potent cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing
more potentially heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms. Much
cooler air will then move in for the work week. Windy conditions can
be expected Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will bring
more rain chances Wednesday into Saturday.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through
central Indiana this afternoon with continued isentropic lift in the
warm sector of a low pressure system. There could be some strong to
severe storms, especially east where better instability exists.
However, heavy rain will continue to be the main threat with very
high precipitable water values and a saturated ground.

Tonight a final round of showers and thunderstorms will develop
along a cold front and move through the area during the evening and
overnight. Heavy rain will continue to be the main threat, but again
some strong to severe storms are possible. Rain should exit the area
by the end of the tonight period.

The model blend looks good for temperatures given the expected
conditions. Winds will be gusty at times tonight as some of the
stronger winds aloft try to mix down, but expect gusts outside of
storms to remain around 30 mph or less.


.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

There may be some partly cloudy skies Monday morning as the area is
in the dry slot behind the cold front. However, during the afternoon
wrap-around moisture will move in along with colder air aloft,
allowing skies to become mostly cloudy. Along with the moisture
return, some weak forcing could lead to a few showers, so went
with some low PoPs during the afternoon.

Colder air will flow in with highs only expected to be in the 50s
most areas. However it will feel cooler thanks to windy conditions.
A tight pressure gradient and cold advection will allow sustained
winds over 20mph and wind gusts approaching 40 mph. These are below
wind advisory criteria but are close. Will have to keep a close eye
for a need to go with an advisory if expected speeds increase a
little more.

Cyclonic flow continues Monday night along with a surface trough
moving through. This will provide enough forcing to go with some low
PoPs most areas. Breezy conditions will continue.

On Tuesday high pressure and drier air will try and build in from
the west, and this will allow dry conditions and some sunshine to
return. However the pressure gradient will still be tight enough for
breezy conditions.

Another upper trough will approach the area on Tuesday night and
Wednesday. An area of convergence will set up across southern
Indiana. These should provide enough forcing for some chance PoPs
across much of the area by Wednesday afternoon.

Stayed with the model blend for temperatures. These will be below
normal, especially Wednesday when highs will only be in the 50s.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Models and ensembles in general agreement that the long term will
start off with a Plains trough and a weak eastern ridge. Then, an
upper low will break off and move into the Tennessee Valley before
being absorbed again by an Ontario low within the upper trough as
the trough moves into the Appalachians. However, the 12z GFS briefly
stalls the Tennessee Valley upper low Thursday night and thus is on
the slow side of the ensemble means and even more so the 00z ECMWF
by 12z Friday. However, the GFS is not as slow as the 06z or 00z
versions. So, will lean toward a quicker ensemble mix.

A southern Plains surface system will move across the Tennessee
Valley Wednesday night and Thursday and the Appalachians Thursday
night and Friday. Deepening moisture and isentropic lift should
result in widespread showers with the potential for more heavy rain
Wednesday night into Thursday. Then, should only see a few lingering
light showers for the remainder of the work week.

MOS blend temperatures look to have a good handle on the cool
airmass that will be in place along with the extensive cloud cover
that is expected to be around starting Wednesday night. The result
will be well below normal temperatures with highs only in the 50s on
Thursday. As the system exits northeast, should see some sunshine
and moderating weekend temperatures.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 302100Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 417 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Area of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact
KBMG and KIND over the next 1-2 hours with brief restrictions.
Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will lift up into the
forecast area through early evening as well. Made some adjustments
to winds and ceilings for the next 3-4 hours...particularly pulling
out prevailing gusts as they have been more sporadic.

18Z discussion follows.

Radar and High Resolution Rapid Refresh suggest showers will be over
the terminals much of the afternoon. Confidence in flight categories
IS not good. It looks more like VFR with MVFR or worse in the
heavier showers. The thick cloud cover and instability forecasts do
not lend enough for more than VCTS. The showers should be ending and
conditions VFR 05z-08z as a strong cold front moves through.

Winds will be south around 15 knots until frontal passage and with
gusts to 20 knots or more until after 01z. Should see winds veer to
southwest behind the cold front.


Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

As noted above several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
continue across the area into the overnight. Near record
precipitable water values will remain across the area, with
sustained moisture transport from the south.

The ground is saturated across much of the area, with many
creeks/streams and even some rivers already in flood. Thus will
continue the Flash Flood Watch for all areas.


Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ021-028>031-



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