Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 171822
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
222 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Quiet weather can be expected through the week and into the weekend
across central Indiana with high pressure slowly traversing the
area. A frontal system Will approach to end the weekend and begin
next week with chances for showers. Above normal temperatures can be
expected starting Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure building over the area will bring mostly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s with weak warm advection.
High confidence in all forecast aspects.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A quiet short term period is expected under the influence of an
upper ridge and building surface high pressure. Models are in good
agreement and thus high confidence in dry weather and temperatures
slowly increasing a bit each day. While lows tonight will still be
in the low 40s under clear skies, some warm advection
will cause temperatures to warm to above normal from Wednesday on.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A transitional period is expected during this period as warm and
dry weather changes to cooler and wetter weather.

The ECMWF shows strong ridging and surface high pressure departing
the area on Friday Night through Sunday. This results in the
persistent dry weather remaining on Friday Night...however by
Saturday Afternoon and Sunday...southerly flow ahead of an
approaching cold front will allow warmer more moist air to arrive
in the valley which could lead to shower/storm chances.

In the wake of the cold front on Sunday Night the ECMWF shows the
upper flow becoming more northwesterly with a sharp trough
developing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for Monday and
Tuesday. Forecast Builder mysteriously believes this to be a dry
pattern...so confidence in the builder at that point is low. ECMWF
suggests several embedded short wave to pass on Monday through
Tuesday amid the troughy NW flow. Thus below normal temps along
with daily chances for showers with the passing waves appear
prudent at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 171800Z TAFs/...

Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Large...expansive high pressure over the Ohio Valley will remain
in place through this taf period...proving VFR Conditions.

Forecast soundings and Time heights continue to show a very dry
column with unreachable convective temperatures. Thus only clear
skies or a passing CI will be expected from time to time.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP



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